New York’s Independent Redistricting Commission approved new maps for the state’s 26-member congressional delegation on Thursday. Now, the lines are due to be voted on by the Democratic-dominated state Legislature by the end of the month. And a ferocious scramble of lobbying by those who didn’t get what they hoped for has already begun. The first statement came from state Sen. James Skoufis, half an hour before the commission began to meet. Skoufis, who has been rumored to be weighing a congressional run at some point this decade, attacked the shifts that boosted Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro and Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan. “The most meaningful edit to the map sacrifices Orange County at the altar of partisanship, splitting the currently-unified county into two congressional districts in an attempt to protect one incumbent from each party,” he said in a statement. “These maps are a disgrace and ought to be rejected by the Legislature.” Democratic House candidate Josh Riley has been widely regarded as the biggest loser with the new maps as Molinaro’s seat becomes a bit safer for a Republican incumbent. One New York Democratic consultant on Thursday said Riley could face the choice of either dropping his bid or regroup by launching a bid for Rep. Brandon Williams’ seat in Central New York that already has a crowded Democratic primary field. “It’s going to set a bomb off,” the consultant said. Particularly in the Assembly, bills are only brought to the floor for a vote if they’re guaranteed to pass without relying on any Republican support. But lawmakers are constitutionally required to take an up-or-down vote on the commission’s plans, opening the door to a rare scenario where the lines are approved thanks to Republicans and some Democrats. It’s not yet clear how the Republican minorities in the Legislature will vote. Two top Republicans said on Wednesday, before the lines were finalized, that they were pleased with the looming agreement. But a couple of others indicated they weren’t happy with the lines. A senior New York Republican blasted the lines and predicted a legal challenge was likely, pointing to safer seats drawn for incumbents in both parties. “The Republicans shouldn’t vote for this map,” the GOP official said. “How much do the Republicans want to keeping putting themselves in the superminority?” The official, who requested anonymity to discuss negotiations, added: “This is not the final map. Everybody knows that.” The situation is complicated by the fact that legislators aren’t due to return to Albany and vote on the maps until Monday, Feb. 26. The Association of Black, Puerto Rican, Hispanic & Asian Legislators is due to hold its annual conference in Albany this weekend, meaning lawmakers will have plenty of time to hear from people who want more from the lines. But there’s also redistricting fatigue after years of drama and court battles. And some legislators are likely to be eager to put an end to the fights. Assemblymember Amy Paulin pointed to language in the state constitution that limits the Legislature’s ability to make more than minimal changes to maps approved by a bipartisan majority of the commission. She predicted that means there will be less impetus for any adjustments. “What are we going to change? 14,000 people in each district?” she said. “I don’t know if that makes a lot of sense.” One Democratic operative noted that “the reason we lost in 2022 wasn’t redistricting — it was because we lost supremely winnable races. If these maps hold, every swing seat is firmly in play, with fairly sizable improvements for Pat Ryan in NY-18 and whatever challenger emerges against Brandon Williams in NY-22. It’s probably time to leave well enough alone, and put all our attention on making Hakeem Jeffries the next Speaker of the House.”
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