Forget last night — the next Republican debate is the one to watch

From: POLITICO Nightly - Friday Nov 10,2023 12:07 am
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Nov 09, 2023 View in browser
 
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By Mia McCarthy

Republican presidential candidates (L-R): former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy participate in the NBC News Republican Presidential Primary Debate in Miami, Florida.

Republican presidential candidates (L-R): former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy participate in the NBC News Republican Presidential Primary Debate in Miami, Florida. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images

DECEMBER DEBATE DEETS — With the third GOP presidential debate in the rear-view mirror, it’s not too soon to begin thinking about the next debate scheduled for Dec. 6 in Tuscaloosa, Ala.

Why? Because it could mark a significant departure from what we’ve seen so far. From the moderators to the calendar timing to the qualifications, the next debate stands apart — and it could shape the primary in dramatic ways.

The Republican National Committee has announced the event will take place at the University of Alabama — one of the more conservative college campuses in the nation. It’s familiar terrain for frontrunner Donald Trump, who attended a Crimson Tide football game in 2019, but the former president won’t be on the stage. He’s ditched every debate to date; his campaign manager said Wednesday he doesn’t plan to make the next one either.

While it seems certain that Trump will be elsewhere, engaged in counterprogramming designed to diminish his rivals and distract attention from the debate, the rest of the December debate roster remains unclear. RNC qualification rules whittled Wednesday’s debate down to five candidates — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott — making for a tidier, nastier and, oddly enough, more substantive discussion.

The Tuscaloosa debate could be even smaller as a result of the higher polling and donor thresholds necessary to qualify. Candidates will need 6% from either two national polls or one national poll and two early state polls to make the stage, as opposed to the 4% required for the November debate. DeSantis, Haley and Ramaswamy are hitting those percentages, but the remaining candidates are falling short.

Scott narrowly made the cut last night, raising questions about whether he’ll squeeze through in December. Christie is hovering right below that 6% mark.

In the event they fail to make the stage, viewers could be treated to the spectacle of a three-way, scorpions-in-a-bottle fight between DeSantis, Haley and Ramaswamy. It’s a far cry from the 2016 GOP primary, when nine candidates qualified for the final debate of 2015.

Ramaswamy will be unlikely to spring an ambush on the media moderators as he did in Wednesday’s debate, when he used NBC News and moderator Kristen Welker as foils to make a point about the “corrupt media establishment.” In December, the RNC is partnering with the right-leaning NewsNation cable news station, SiriusXM, the Washington Free Beacon and the video-sharing platform Rumble, all of which are in better standing with GOP voters than NBC.

Former Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly — who famously clashed with Trump in a 2015 debate — NewsNation’s Elizabeth Vargas and the Free Beacon’s Eliana Johnson will serve as the moderators for December’s debate, which will broadcast on NewsNation and live stream on Rumble, which has drawn scrutiny for allowing far-right extremist content and election disinformation.

For all the changes, it is the precise timing of the December debate that holds the most significance. The debate will take place with Iowa finally on the near horizon, roughly six weeks before the first votes are cast. It’s the final campaign window before the early states go to the polls, and could offer the last opportunity for struggling candidates to make a mark — or gang up on a rival. Likewise, a weak performance might spell the end, depriving a campaign of oxygen in a contest where many Republicans are already pressing for a consolidation of the GOP field.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at mmcarthy@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @Reporter_Mia.

 

JOIN US ON 11/15 FOR A TALK ON OUR SUSTAINABLE FUTURE: As the sustainability movement heats up, so have calls for a national standard for clean fuel. Join POLITICO on Nov. 15 in Washington D.C. as we convene leading officials from the administration, key congressional committees, states and other stakeholders to explore the role of EVs, biofuels, hydrogen and other options in the clean fuel sector and how evolving consumer behaviors are influencing sustainable energy practices. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
What'd I Miss?

— Joe Manchin won’t seek reelection in 2024, dealing blow to Dems’ Senate map: Joe Manchin will not seek reelection to the Senate, a move that essentially cedes his seat to the GOP in deep-red West Virginia and removes one of Congress’ most prominent centrist voices in either party. The Mountain State Democrat won his seat in 2010 and hung on since then thanks to a moderate brand that’s given him one of his party’s most conservative records. As he prepared to face popular West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice (R) in a potential Senate race next fall, however, the incumbent senator decided to pack it in after reaching the peak of his influence over the last three years.

— Harvard president condemns pro-Palestinian slogan: The president of Harvard University today condemned the use of the pro-Palestinian slogan “from the river to the sea” and what she called “similarly hurtful phrases” in an email to the university community. “Our community must understand that phrases such as ‘from the river to the sea’ bear specific historical meanings that to a great many people imply the eradication of Jews from Israel and engender both pain and existential fears within our Jewish community,” wrote Claudine Gay, who has served in the role since earlier this year.

— Nancy Pelosi’s husband to take the stand in attacker’s trial: The 83-year-old husband of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will have to recount the night he was struck in the head with a hammer by a conspiracy-obsessed attacker in the couple’s home last year. Paul Pelosi will testify in the federal trial against David DePape, the defense revealed today as both sides laid out their arguments in a case of political violence that stunned the nation. DePape, a Canadian citizen with an online history that suggested a fascination with the QAnon conspiracy and support for former President Donald Trump, is charged with assault and kidnapping in the October 2022 attack at the couple’s hilltop home in San Francisco.

Nightly Road to 2024

UNADULTERATED LOATHING — It’s swiftly emerging as the most gripping storyline of the GOP presidential primary, even if it doesn’t directly affect the outcome: the acidic hatred between former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, writes POLITICO.

The impossible-to-overlook, mutual disdain spilled into open view on Wednesday night in Miami, turning an otherwise substantive debate into political bloodsport. There was no artifice to it, no phony attempts to feign collegiality. Just pure, unadulterated loathing.

The rivalry is both deeply personal and political, which is why it makes for such compelling viewing. There are unmistakable generational and gender components, but the contempt also features an ideological and a tactical dimension. And it reveals as much about Republican Party fault lines as it does about the two candidates themselves.

SHE’S RUNNING — Jill Stein, who ran unsuccessfully for president on the Green Party ticket in 2012 and 2016, will run again in 2024, she announced today — adding yet another name to the field even as the two major parties appear almost certain to nominate the same two candidates who ran in 2020, reports the New York Times.

“Democrats have betrayed their promises for working people, youth and the climate again and again, while Republicans don’t even make such promises in the first place,” she said in a video announcing her candidacy, and accused both parties of being “a danger to our democracy.”

That institutional backing would spare her some of the challenges in gaining ballot access that will be faced by two prominent independent candidates in the race: the progressive activist and professor Cornel West and the anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who left the Democratic primary last month.

‘GET IN THE GAME’ — After seven months of hosting Republican presidential candidates in Iowa, Gov. Kim Reynolds said it “feels good to get in the game” with her endorsement of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, reports the Associated Press.

But the popular Iowa governor declined to say whether other candidates should concede and throw their support behind him as well, even as she acknowledged that a wider field could advantage former President Donald Trump. In making the endorsement earlier this week, Reynolds broke with a longstanding tradition of Iowa governors staying neutral in their party’s presidential contests, the first in the GOP nomination calendar.

STRONG SUPPORT — Jewish Democrats on Capitol Hill and in the Biden administration are rallying around the president for his support of Israel, amid protests and criticism from the party’s left wing, reports Axios.

The protests have highlighted divisions among Democrats but also have prompted an outpouring of support for the president from Jewish politicians and leaders across the country. Biden administration officials — including several who are Jewish — told Axios that the president’s solidarity with Israel since the Oct. 7 terror attacks by Hamas has been among their proudest moments in the administration.

The same officials are angry with some of the rhetoric among progressives — including a State Department employee who accused the president of helping Israel commit “genocide” against Palestinians as it retaliates against Hamas in Gaza.

AROUND THE WORLD

Smoke rises following an Israeli airstrike in the Gaza Strip, as seen from southern Israel today.

Smoke rises following an Israeli airstrike in the Gaza Strip, as seen from southern Israel today. | Leo Correa/AP

QUICK PAUSE — After days of talks with top Biden administration officials, Israel will begin to implement short humanitarian “pauses” in the fighting in northern Gaza each day, the White House announced.

Starting today, the four-hour “pauses” in operations in Gaza will allow humanitarian aid to flow into the area and civilians to get out of harm’s way, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters.

The news comes after top administration officials, including President Joe Biden himself, ramped up efforts to pressure their Israeli counterparts to pause the fighting for humanitarian purposes. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, national security adviser Jake Sullivan and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin have also spoken with their counterparts about the issue, Kirby said.

The announcement is a “direct result” of President Joe Biden’s “personal leadership and diplomacy,” Kirby said.

However, the agreement falls far short of the White House’s goals. Speaking to reporters today, President Joe Biden said he had asked for a pause “longer than three days” to secure the release of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza.

Biden also expressed some frustration with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has resisted a prolonged humanitarian pause in the fighting. “It’s taken a little longer than I hoped,” he told reporters.

 

GET READY FOR POLITICO’S DEFENSE SUMMIT ON 11/14: Russia’s war on Ukraine … China’s threats to Taiwan … a war in Gaza. The U.S. is under increasing pressure to deter, defend and fight in more ways — but not everyone agrees how. Join POLITICO's 3rd Annual Defense Summit on November 14 for exclusive interviews and expert discussions on global security and the U.S.'s race to bolster alliances and stay ahead of adversaries. Explore critical topics, including international conflicts, advanced technology, spending priorities and political dynamics shaping global defense strategies. Don’t miss these timely and important discussions. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
Nightly Number

2.3 degrees Fahrenheit

The amount that global temperatures hovered above pre-industrial levels between November 2022 and October 2023, good for the hottest 12-month span in recorded history according to research released today by the climate science and communication nonprofit Climate Central.

RADAR SWEEP

TREE HUGGERS UNITE — When a lone gunman kills in the name of a broader environmental movement, how does the movement respond? It’s a question that’s dogged environmentalists, who span from more staid, policy-oriented thinkers to “eco-terrorists” who try to shut down pipelines and stop deforestation by legal or illegal means. And while American environmentalism began as an elite project in the 1960s and 70s with organizations like the Sierra Club, it’s much more diffuse now. How can the environmental movement find the same page, and what does it mean to be an “eco-terrorist”? Gaby del Valle reports for The Drift.

Parting Image

On this date in 1989: The Berlin Wall falls and borders open between East and West Berlin. Pictured are East and West Berliners celebrating in front of a control station on East Berlin territory.

On this date in 1989: The Berlin Wall falls and borders open between East and West Berlin. Pictured are East and West Berliners celebrating in front of a control station on East Berlin territory. | Jockel Finck/AP

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