FAMILY FIGHT — Today, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) became the latest Democrat to demand that the White House send no further aid to Israel without conditions, arguing “[the] right-wing government [in Israel has] demonstrated an appalling disregard for human lives.” Warren’s comments come a day after Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) called for an end to aid to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. The cracks in the Democratic coalition over the issue are the latest in a fight that’s been developing for months within the party. Nowhere has that been clearer than in the predicament faced by the Democratic “Squad,” the group of far-left House members who have been at the forefront of efforts calling for a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war and attacking Netanyahu for a military campaign that’s killed tens of thousands of civilians in the region. As a result, Squad members are about to face their stiffest political opposition yet. The force of these members’ condemnations of Israel — as well as Rep. Rashida Tlaib’s (D-Mich.) repetition of the pro-Palestinian phrase “from the river to the sea” which earned her a bipartisan censure in November — have powerful allies of Israel lining up to spend mammoth amounts of cash to oust this progressive wing from Congress. Since Squad members largely represent solidly blue congressional districts, it spells contentious Democratic primary contests. That starts with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee and associated allies, who are planning on spending over $100 million to break the Squad up. An AIPAC-affiliated super PAC has already launched ads hitting two Squad members — Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) and Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa.) — along with libertarian Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) over their stances on the Israel-Hamas conflict. The Squad has generated considerable ire from more centrist Democrats during their time in office (the original four members were elected in 2018 and have since been joined by several other allies) and are accustomed to facing primary challenges. But this year, recruiting efforts have led to a slew of serious candidates lining up against these members. Those candidates include Bowman’s challenger George Latimer, the Westchester County executive who’s on a decades-long electoral winning streak, despite routinely being outspent by his opponents. Latimer insists that he doesn’t want the election to be a referendum on Israel, but he’s already gone after Bowman for accusing Israel of committing genocide and his announcement video attacked Bowman on the issue. Bowman notably won his seat in 2020 by defeating one of the biggest pro-Israel advocates in Congress, then-Democratic Rep. Eliot Engel, who held the district for almost three decades. The suburban district currently includes both a large Jewish community that tends to be pro-Israel as well as a significant percentage of Black voters who propelled Bowman to victory over Engel. In St. Louis, Squad member Rep. Cori Bush is facing off against St. Louis County Prosecutor Wesley Bell, who abandoned a Senate campaign for a chance to oust Bush. Jewish groups in St. Louis wrote a letter to the congresswoman condemning her statement calling for an end to “Israeli military occupation and apartheid” and Bell seized the opportunity. Elsewhere, POLITICO reported in November that a donor offered $20 million to Michigan Senate candidate Hill Harper to leave the race and challenge Tlaib — a report that Harper later confirmed. Tlaib, who is of Palestinian descent, has been the most pilloried for her stance on Israel since Oct. 7 — and this isn’t her first brush with the pro-Israel lobby. She survived a sustained attack from a pro-Israel PAC that spent $700,000 in the 2022 primary to unseat her, winning with 64 percent of the vote ahead of three other candidates. Her closest challenger pulled down 22 percent. The composition of Tlaib’s district — which includes Detroit suburbs such as Dearborn that are home to large Arab American communities that have been generally supportive of her stance on Israel — works to her advantage. Even though she doesn’t yet have a named challenger, the Democratic Majority for Israel PAC has already launched a six-figure ad buy against her. Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has pledged support to party incumbents across the board, though it’s an open question how much time and energy he will commit to standing behind the Squad. But the copious spending has some Democrats concerned that infighting could leave lasting wounds, affecting their ability to reclaim the House majority. If Democrats do manage to win back a majority next year, the open question prompted by these primaries is what that majority might look like. Would it hew closer to the center due to the departure of some of the party’s most progressive lawmakers? Does a smaller, deeply progressive wing have a chance to survive? Poll numbers among Democrats on the issue of Israel are in flux and show some souring on Israel’s actions in Gaza, in particular among young voters. If the Squad manages to survive challenges en masse, they could head into the 119th Congress in an enhanced position to shape the Democratic agenda, in particular if Democrats hold a small majority. Yet if even a few of them fall in primaries, their influence will be notably curbed. In this particular battle for the soul of the Democratic party, it will break along the fault-lines of the Israel issue. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @calder_mchugh.
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