Is it Republicans who are facing an enthusiasm gap?

From: POLITICO Playbook PM - Tuesday Sep 20,2022 05:42 pm
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CINCINNATI, OH - MAY 3: Supporters attend a primary election night event for J.D. Vance, a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Ohio, at Duke Energy Convention Center on May 3, 2022 in Cincinnati, Ohio. Former President Donald Trump recently endorsed J.D. Vance in the Ohio Republican Senate primary. Other candidates in the Republican Senate primary field include Josh Mandel, Mike Gibbons, Jane Timken, Matt Dolan and Mark Pukita. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

Sixty-one percent of Democrats say they’re very or extremely enthusiastic about voting in the midterms, compared to 57% of Republicans. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images

TRUST BUT VERIFY — We have new polling out from POLITICO and Morning Consult today that offers some interesting glimpses into which party voters trust more on a variety of issues.

Some of the findings underscore long-standing trends: The GOP enjoys an advantage on economic issues, as well as immigration and national security. Conversely, Democrats are more trusted on health care, the coronavirus, protecting Medicare and Social Security, and voting rights.

More surprising results come in a handful of policy areas where the parties’ shifting positions have scrambled the usual political battle lines in recent years: education, gun policy and energy. Voters are close to evenly split on all three, but they lean toward trusting congressional Democrats more by 3- to 5-point margins.

We also asked voters how enthusiastic they feel about voting in November. The results, along with other recent surveys, indicate that Dems have closed the gap with — or even exceeded — Republicans on this measure: Sixty-one percent of Democrats say they’re very or extremely enthusiastic, compared to 57% of Republicans. Toplines Crosstabs

THE LATEST FROM MAR-A-LAGO — DONALD TRUMP’s legal team put forth a 40-page response today to the Justice Department’s ask for a partial appeals court stay of Judge AILEEN CANNON’s special master order. The Trump team argues that federal investigators haven’t proven the documents are, in fact, classified and that Trump’s handwritten notes on some materials could contain info covered by executive privilege. DOJ is trying to recover its access to roughly 100 documents the FBI seized that have classified markings. The filing

Notably, 11 Republican state AGs are also weighing in with an amicus brief on Trump’s behalf: “At a minimum, this Court should view the Administration’s assertions of good-faith, neutrality, and objectivity through jaundiced eyes.” The amicus brief

BIDEN HEADS TO UNGA — Ahead of President JOE BIDEN’s speech Wednesday in Turtle Bay, Meredith Lee scooped that he’ll announce a major new tranche of global food assistance to try to tackle a growing hunger crisis worsened by the war in Ukraine. $100 million will go toward “agriculture practices and fertilizer access” in Africa, plus other funds Congress already passed this year. More for Pros

Good Tuesday afternoon. ELTON JOHN will perform on the South Lawn of the White House on Friday evening for an event titled “A Night When Hope and History Rhyme.” The Bidens will also deliver remarks, which could well include a lament there never was a BERNIE TAUPIN-SEAMUS HEANEY collab.

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BIG PICTURE

DEMOCRACY DIGEST — From Phoenix, Time’s Charlotte Alter has a big new cover story about the people she calls “the Defenders”: the group of candidates running for posts overseeing elections against people who push election fraud lies. “They’re paper pushers and bureaucrats, not inspiring orators or ingenious policymakers or even particularly good politicians,” she writes. But now they’re “running to serve as the bulwark between the will of the voters and the conspiracy theorists willing to subvert it.”

Alter focuses on Arizona Democrat ADRIAN FONTES, whose campaign for secretary of state is trying to warn voters of the existential stakes — but who retains his faith in his fellow citizens. She also asks his GOP opponent MARK FINCHEM directly if he would certify a Biden 2024 win in Arizona: Finchem says yes, if it’s a legitimate election, but “I think you’re proposing something that, quite frankly, is a fantasy.”

DON’T LET THE SUN GO DOWN ON ME — The White House is launching a drive to shore up Latino support for Democrats in the midterms, from a Building Back Together ad campaign to a Spanish-language briefing. But some advocates warn that Biden is late to the party, the L.A. Times’ Eli Stokols reports. They say messaging about Biden’s policy moves to help Hispanics has failed to break through with most voters. And political operatives argue that Biden hasn’t done enough to put Latinos in top administration posts.

NARRATIVE WATCH — As Republicans hammer Democrats on crime, Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund has come up with a potential response: tie crime and public safety to laws restricting guns, Elena Schneider reports . The group’s research has found that the combination — which highlights Americans’ ease of access to guns and links it to violent crime — tests well to bolster support for Dems among the party base and swing voters. Though some Dems think it’s wiser for the party to just stay away from a focus on crime, others advocate for getting tough on illegal guns if Republicans elevate the issue.

BY THE NUMBERS — Democrats have spent $124 million this cycle on TV ads that reference abortion, more than double the amount spent on the next issue (“character”), AP’s Steve Peoples and Aaron Kessler scoop. It’s a staggering sum that highlights how central abortion rights are to Dems’ midterms pitch; the issue warranted just $6 million in Democratic spending in 2018. Meanwhile, GOP spending on ads that reference abortion has declined since Dobbs.

BATTLE FOR THE SENATE

MASTERS OF HIS FATE — PETER THIEL is jumping back into the Arizona race on behalf of his protege, Republican BLAKE MASTERS: Thiel will host a Sept. 30 fundraiser in Southern California, per CNBC’s Brian Schwartz. Republicans have been pushing Thiel to shore up Masters more.

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE

CASH DASH — At a closed House GOP meeting this morning, the conference raised a record $6 million from its members, per Punchbowl’s Jake Sherman.

BATTLE FOR THE STATES

GEORGIA ON MY MIND — GOP Gov. BRIAN KEMP has focused much of his campaign on driving up numbers in rural, conservative areas, but now he’s making a play to cut into Democrat STACEY ABRAMS’ margins in suburban Atlanta too, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Greg Bluestein reports. He’s taking a page out of Virginia Gov. GLENN YOUNGKIN’s book with a sharp focus on education issues — and campaigning alongside Youngkin himself in Alpharetta next week.

 

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HOT POLLS

— Georgia: Two new polls out today paint somewhat different pictures of the top races. Marist finds a Senate/gubernatorial split that favors both incumbents, with Democratic Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK leading Republican HERSCHEL WALKER 47% to 42% and Kemp topping Abrams 50% to 44%. But the Atlanta Journal-Constitution sees Republicans romping: Walker leads 46% to 44%, and Kemp leads 50% to 42%.

HOT ADS

— Nevada: GOP Senate nominee ADAM LAXALT is up with a new ad claiming the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision preserved the status quo in Nevada, where abortion is legal under state law. “Why do Democrats like CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO only talk about something that hasn't changed? Because they can't defend everything that has,” says the narrator. … A new DSCC spot paints Laxalt as corrupt: “He tried to block a fraud investigation into a Big Oil company. And oil executives spent millions on his campaign. Then Laxalt made millions at a fancy Washington lobbying firm that worked for Big Oil.” … And the DCCC is up with an ad collectively hitting Republicans in three House districts on abortion.

IT’S 2020 SOMEWHERE

THE PLOT TO SUBVERT THE ELECTION — A Georgia fake Trump elector and local GOP chair spent more than four hours at an elections office on Jan. 7, 2021, as an alleged breach of voting equipment took place, WaPo’s Jon Swaine and Emma Brown reveal from surveillance video footage. CATHY LATHAM swore in testimony last month that she’d been there only briefly. “Failing to accurately remember the details of events from almost two years ago is not lying,” her lawyers now said in response. The videos more broadly “show allies of former President Donald J. Trump and contractors who were working on his behalf handling sensitive voting equipment,” NYT’s Danny Hakim, Richard Fausset and Nick Corasaniti write.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE — “Trump’s ‘big lie’ fueled a new generation of social media influencers,” by WaPo’s Elizabeth Dwoskin and Jeremy Merrill: “Some doubled or tripled their audiences on Twitter, while others saw even larger gains — catapulting … from relative obscurity to online fame. … And they have gone on to use their powerful megaphones to shape the national debate on other subjects, injecting fresh waves of distortion into such culture-war topics as transgender rights and critical race theory.”

CONGRESS

WHETHER PERMITTING — Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) told reporters he’ll unveil the text of his energy infrastructure permitting reform legislation Wednesday. He expressed confidence it will make it into the continuing resolution to fund the government, despite opposition from both progressives and Republicans — the latter of which he slammed as “revenge politics,” per Burgess Everett.

POLICE FUNDING MOVES — House Democrats are getting closer to a breakthrough on a package of police funding bills that has riven the caucus, Sarah Ferris and Nick Wu report in Congress Minutes. “Nothing is final yet, but the group has been discussing a compromise that would involve four public safety bills — including [Rep. JOSH] GOTTHEIMER’s police grants bill that would bolster training, body cameras and recruitment. A broader policing grants bill from Rep. ABIGAIL SPANBERGER (D-Va.) … has been dropped from the talks.”by

Related read: “Law Enforcement Funding Package Splits Democrats Ahead of Midterm Elections,” by NYT’s Annie Karni and Stephanie Lai

 

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BEYOND THE BELTWAY

THE MIGRANT FLIGHTS — Georgetown, Del., is bracing for another possible flight of migrants arriving via Texas and Florida, per the Delaware News Journal’s Emily Lytle. The airport is somewhat near Biden’s vacation home in Rehoboth Beach. “While the plane was still listed as ‘scheduled’ on multiple flight trackers as of 11 a.m., the flight path appears to start in Texas and stop in Crestview, Florida, before reaching Delaware.” This time, the communities are preparing in advance for any arrivals sent by Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS.

WAR IN UKRAINE

CONGRESS VS. THE ADMINISTRATION — Sens. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.) and PAT TOOMEY (R-Pa.) are working on a bill to slap secondary sanctions on foreign companies purchasing Russian oil, Bloomberg’s Daniel Flatley reports. They say it’s a crucial step to enforce the price cap on Russian oil and “cut off funding to [VLADIMIR] PUTIN’s war machine.” But the Biden administration has already said it thinks secondary sanctions are unnecessary for enforcement.

MEDIAWATCH

BACK IN ACTION — CNN’s Reliable Sources newsletter will return with a reboot led by OLIVER DARCY on Monday, per The Hollywood Reporter’s Alex Weprin. Expect a “more concise format,” “an entirely new ‘polished’ visual identity” and a lower frequency — four times a week instead of six.

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

SPOTTED: J.D. Vance at the Capitol Hill Club, per Olivia Beavers.

SPORTS BLINK — Members of Congress, congressional staff and lobbyists faced off Monday night for the 22nd annual Congressional Basketball Game. In game one, the staff team won 74-57 against the lobbyist team, while members of Congress beat out lobbyists in game two 46-36. Aaron Groce of Rep. Sean Casten’s (D-Ill.) office was named MVP of the staff game, while Rep. Blake Moore (R-Utah) was named MVP of the Congress game. Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.) showed off her skills by spinning a basketball on her fingers for over a minute while watching her teammates on the court. Pic

OUT AND ABOUT — The House Chiefs of Staff Association and the Pew Charitable Trusts held a reception at Mount Vernon on Monday evening. Chiefs of staff and their spouses took private sunset tours of the estate and listened to remarks from a George Washington impersonator who, much like the first president’s original 1796 farewell address, warned of “constantly warring political factions threatening the stability of the republic.” SPOTTED: Jonathan Day, Mitchell Rivard, Tamera Luzzato, Brent Blevins, Sonali Desai, Marilyn Dillihay, Robert Edmonson, Mark Henson, Jacob Hochberg, Connor McNutt, Laurie Saroff, Kelle Stickland and Liz Johnson. Pic

— SPOTTED at the 26th Annual “Noche De Gala” salon dinner hosted by Esther and Connie Coopersmith in Kalorama on Monday night, ahead of tonight’s National Hispanic Foundation for the Arts Gala: Merel Julia, Felix Sanchez, Xolo Mariduena, Xavier Zazueta, Gloria Rodriguez, Nathaly Maurice, Glen Roberts, Maria Cardona, Lyndon Boozer, Karen Anderson, and Celeste Carrasco.

— SPOTTED at a party Monday night on the rooftop of 101 Constitution Ave. for Peter Navarro’s new book, “Taking Back Trump’s America” ($28): Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), Vicky Ward, Andrew Adams, Lee Harris, Christianné Allen, John Fredericks, Sara Cook, Joanna Miller and Liz Harrington.

NEW FELLOWS — New America is announcing its latest class of national fellows: Philip Bennett, Eula Biss, Mona Chalabi, Zeke Faux, Tanisha C. Ford, Emily Kassie, Khameer Kidia, Jennifer Medina, Ross Perlin, Jessica Pishko, Joe Posner, Albert Samaha, Rebecca L. Spang, Xinyan Yu and Jason Zengerle.

MEDIA MOVES — Ben Pauker will be national security editor at WaPo. He currently is world and national security editor at POLITICO. Debbi Wilgoren is also leading a new justice and immigration team at WaPo. Announcement Heidi Vogt is now national security editor for POLITICO, where she previously was a tech and cyber editor. … Courtney Chapman Coupe is now head of original programming for LinkedIn. She previously was SVP for content, strategy and operations for CNN.

TRANSITIONS — Michael Fleischer is now CEO of DDC at Omnicom Public Relations Group. He most recently was president of Burson Cohn & Wolfe’s D.C. office. … Jenny Busby is now director of government affairs for transportation policy at Siemens. She previously was public affairs adviser at Holland & Knight. … Patricia Gibson is now project director at Cogent Analytics. She most recently was a business consultant, and is a Trump SBA alum. …

… Kiara Pesante Haughton is now chief of comms at Dēmos. She previously was SVP in the issue advocacy practice at BerlinRosen. … Madison Mallin is now PAC manager at Brady PAC. She is a Locust Street Group and Iowa Democratic Party alum.

ENGAGED — Jackson Armstrong, a captain in the U.S. Army, proposed to Caroline Rose , senior analyst and head of the Power Vacuums Program at the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, on Saturday at the back side of the Lincoln Memorial, which was where they ended their first date over five years ago. The two both competed on the university Model U.N. circuit for years and met formally a few times, but it wasn’t until their last year of college that a close mutual friend set them up. Pic

WEDDINGS — Jacob McIntosh, director at Molly Allen Associates, and Kristy Silva , education policy and landscape analyst at City Year, got married Sept. 12 in Flagstaff, Ariz. The couple met while both in D.C. for summer internships during the summer of 2015. Kristy was on a Metrobus heading to Nats Park when she saw Jacob out the window, wearing a Northern Arizona University T-shirt. She found him on Facebook, they met up to watch a debate, and the rest was history. Pic Another pic

—  Erica Lee, a national political organizer at National Nurses United and Bernie Sanders alum, and Will Thanhauser, an associate chief counsel at the FDA, got married Saturday at Fathom Gallery in Georgetown. Ami Shah Lovell officiated. The couple met in 2019 through a dating app and quickly bonded over horror movies and how much they loved and hated POLITICO. Pic

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Justin Meyers, policy adviser at Nelson Mullins, and Lindsay Meyers, senior director in the office of special events at the University of Maryland, welcomed Sam Isaac Meyers on Monday. He joins big sister Rosie. Pic

 

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