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Presented by Blackrock: POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the afternoon in Washington. | | | | |  | | By Eli Okun | | | |  Though AG Merrick Garland is disinclined to spectacle, he faces the biggest decision of his career on Donald Trump. | Alex Wong/Getty Images | TOP TALKER — The Atlantic’s Franklin Foer, after diving deep into MERRICK GARLAND’s Justice Department for the past several months, writes this morning that he believes the AG will make the historic decision to indict DONALD TRUMP. DOJ has given no indications to that effect yet, and Garland is temperamentally inclined to avoid partisan spectacle — with a deep commitment to traditions, rules, norms and moving with caution. But Foer finds that the job has changed Garland, too, as exemplified by the department’s more aggressive posture in the Mar-a-Lago records case. And the evidence may be too strong to ignore when it comes time for Garland to exercise his prosecutorial discretion: “United States v. Donald Trump would be about more than punishing crimes — whether inciting an insurrection, scheming to undermine an election, or absconding with classified documents,” he writes. “An indictment would be a signal to Trump, as well as to would-be imitators, that no one is above the law. This is the principle that has animated Garland’s career.” Fun aside: “When he was on the bench, Garland would occasionally orient new clerks to his idiosyncrasies by playing a song by the band Vampire Weekend which contains the refrain, ‘Who gives a fuck about an Oxford comma?’ It was amusing because the band was so distant from his range of expected cultural references, and because the strait-laced attorney general would never utter that sentence himself. It was also funny because Garland does care about punctuation, deeply.” LIKE A G-7 — At an emergency G-7 meeting this morning amid a barrage of Russian missile strikes across Ukraine, Western leaders slammed Moscow’s actions and vowed to “stand firmly with Ukraine for as long as it takes.” — Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY said on the call that he would rule out talks with Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN, per NBC’s Peter Alexander. Putin “has no future,” Zelenskyy said. — The call came amid a lobbying campaign by President JOE BIDEN to maintain the country’s — and the world’s — mostly united front against Putin, WaPo’s Yasmeen Abutaleb and John Hudson report . The advance of winter could make solidarity more difficult, as economic costs cut more deeply in Europe and elsewhere. A U.N. vote Wednesday on condemning Russia’s illegal annexations will provide the newest international test. And in the U.S., GOP skepticism of ongoing military aid to Ukraine could combine with growing war weariness in the electorate to undermine robust support to Kyiv. THE SAUDI RUPTURE — “The timeline’s now” for reevaluating the U.S.-Saudi relationship, the NSC’s JOHN KIRBY said on CNN this morning, in the most explicit White House signal yet to MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN that the U.S. is deeply displeased with OPEC+’s move to cut oil production. “And I think [Biden] is going to be willing to start to have those conversations right away.” Though Kirby didn’t announce any official shift in stance, he said the White House is ready to work with Congress now to take a second look at the kingdom. — The backstory, via WSJ’s Summer Said, Benoit Faucon, Dion Nissenbaum and Stephen Kalin: The U.S. had begged OPEC to delay the supply cut decision by a month, warning that D.C. would see it as Saudi Arabia taking Russia’s side in Ukraine. Instead, the Saudis urged others in OPEC to go for it, dismissing U.S. entreaties “as a political gambit” pre-midterms. Good Tuesday afternoon. The White House briefing has been pushed to 3 p.m., with ASHISH JHA joining press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE.
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| BIG PICTURE RED-LIGHT REDISTRICT — In a big new investigation, ProPublica’s Joshua Kaplan digs up evidence contradicting Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS’ claims that his move to redraw the state’s congressional districts wasn’t driven by partisanship. “The new details show that the governor’s office appears to have misled the public and the state legislature and may also have violated Florida law,” Kaplan finds. “DeSantis aides worked behind the scenes with an attorney who serves as the national GOP’s top redistricting lawyer and other consultants tied to the national party apparatus.” A former state Supreme Court chief justice calls it “significant evidence of a violation of the constitutional amendment.” WHERE THE MONEY WENT — Trump’s cascading legal woes have diluted his ability to bolster Republicans in the midterms, WaPo’s Isaac Stanley-Becker and Josh Dawsey report in a new analysis. Through the end of August, his Save America PAC has spent $7 million on his lawyers, and another $2 million to support the Conservative Partnership Institute and the America First Policy Institute. By contrast, it had given $8.4 million to GOP committees and candidates. ENDORSEMENT WATCH — Rep. ADAM KINZINGER (R-Ill.) today rolled out a slate of cross-party endorsements, focused on protecting democracy, Zach Montellaro scooped. The endorsees from Kinzinger’s Country First PAC include four Dem secretary of state nominees, Sen. LISA MURKOWSKI (R-Alaska), Georgia Secretary of State BRAD RAFFENSPERGER, Utah independent Senate hopeful EVAN McMULLIN and Democratic Pennsylvania gubernatorial nominee JOSH SHAPIRO. BATTLE FOR THE SENATE KEYS TO THE KEYSTONE — One of the big questions in the Pennsylvania Senate race is whether Republican MEHMET OZ can peel off enough Black voters, particularly with an appeal focused on crime, AP’s Mike Catalini and Marc Levy report from Philadelphia and Harrisburg. And some Philly Dems “question Democrats’ outreach and fret about turnout” as JOHN FETTERMAN tries to run up big numbers in the city. But Fetterman could benefit from Democratic gubernatorial nominee Shapiro’s campaign investments in Black communities. THE BIG QUESTION — “Can Cheri Beasley build a winning coalition in North Carolina?” by The 19th’s Candice Norwood KNOCK ON WOOD — JOHN WOOD’s independent Missouri Senate bid ended quickly after ERIC GREITENS lost the Republican primary. But it pulled in $6 million from former Sen. JOHN DANFORTH nonetheless, The Kansas City Star’s Daniel Desrochers reports. BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE CASH DASH — House Minority Leader KEVIN McCARTHY raised $20 million in the third quarter through his joint fundraising committee, Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser scooped. EMPIRE STATE OF MIND — With tons of seats in play, Democrats are scrambling not to lose ground in New York congressional races, NYT’s Nicholas Fandos reports from Poughkeepsie. The surprising outcome of a blocked Democratic attempt at gerrymandering means a rarity for New York and, increasingly, for the country: many competitive races. And right now, the GOP looks likelier to flip seats, Fandos finds, running better than expected on Long Island, in the Hudson Valley (endangering DCCC Chair SEAN PATRICK MALONEY) and in NYC (where national Dems are all but giving up on MAX ROSE). Only retiring Rep. JOHN KATKO’s seat looks like a potential Democratic pickup. IN THE DARK — In a key New Jersey district, Republican TOM KEAN JR. has mostly avoided engaging with the media, Matt Friedman reports. He’s “banking instead on his famous name and the local media’s decreased relevance amid shrinking newspaper circulations and declining TV news viewership.” And Kean is using the strategy to avoid making comments that could turn off either the GOP base or moderate swing voters. BATTLE FOR THE STATES BIG MONEY — BETO O’ROURKE and Gov. GREG ABBOTT each raised roughly $25 million in the third quarter for their marquee Texas race, their campaigns announced today. More from The Texas Tribune
| | | | JOIN WEDNESDAY FOR A TALK ON U.S.-CHINA AND XI JINPING’S NEW ERA: President Xi Jinping will consolidate control of the ruling Chinese Communist Party later this month by engineering a third term as China’s paramount leader, solidifying his rule until at least 2027. Join POLITICO Live for a virtual conversation hosted by Phelim Kine, author of POLITICO’s China Watcher newsletter, to unpack what it means for U.S.-China relations. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | HOT POLLS — Arizona: Whoa: OH Predictive Insights finds Democratic Sen. MARK KELLY leading BLAKE MASTERS 46% to 33% … as Libertarian MARC VICTOR surges to 15%, National Journal’s Matt Holt scooped. — Colorado: Democratic Sen. MICHAEL BENNET is up 48% to 41% over JOE O’DEA, per Marist. Meanwhile, Democratic Gov. JARED POLIS leads HEIDI GANAHL, 54% to 36%. — Rhode Island: In a Democratic-held district, Republican ALLAN FUNG leads SETH MAGAZINER 45% to 37%, per The Boston Globe/Suffolk University. Fung enjoys a 36-point lead among independents. Statewide, Democratic Gov. DAN McKEE is beating ASHLEY KALUS, 46% to 36%. HOT ADS With help from Steve Shepard — Georgia: A Senate Majority PAC-affiliated group is going after GOP Senate nominee HERSCHEL WALKER directly on his personal history: “Abuse” lays out the history of domestic violence allegations against him, including his son CHRISTIAN’s recent comments. … STACEY ABRAMS’ leadership group is up with a new ad aimed at Black voters. “We have the power to stop [GOP Gov. BRIAN] KEMP’s voter suppression,” a narrator says, hitting the incumbent Republican over the 2021 law that makes “it easier for white supremacists to challenge Black voters and kick us off the rolls.” — Iowa: The NRCC’s latest ad against Democratic Rep. CINDY AXNE riffs on “Field of Dreams”: Actors in black suits and sunglasses purporting to be IRS agents hired after the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act emerge from a cornfield while a voice whispers, “If you pass it, they will come — after you.” — Oregon: GOP House candidate ALEK SKARLATOS is responding to Democrat VAL HOYLE’slatest ad, which highlighted comments Skarlatos made on a 2018 podcast about women, sex and violence. “When I got out of the Army, I said some immature and hurtful things that I deeply regret,” Skarlatos says in his new ad. “It’s not the man I am today.” — Wisconsin: Kenosha police officers endorse Republican gubernatorial candidate TIM MICHELS in his latest ad, hitting Democratic Gov. TONY EVERS over his handling of the 2020 protests and riots in the city. BEYOND THE BELTWAY HEADLINES THE WHITE HOUSE WILL LIKE — “OHIO’S BIG WIN,” screamed the Dayton Daily News about today’s announcement that Honda and LG Energy Solutions are putting a massive $4.4 billion investment into electric vehicle and battery manufacturing. The plans are expected to create more than 2,500 new jobs, writes Thomas Gnau. “The EV announcement came 45 years to the day after Honda announced its Ohio first production facility, a motorcycle plant — October 11, 1977.” POLICY CORNER MUCK READ — A major, six-bylined WSJ investigation finds more than 2,600 executive branch officials with stock investments in companies that are lobbying their agencies — more than one-fifth of the people they reviewed. Rebecca Ballhaus, Brody Mullins, Chad Day, John West, Joe Palazzolo and James Grimaldi pen the first in a new series diving into conflicts of interest among federal agency officials — following the WSJ’s similar, impactful look at the topic among judges. “When financial holdings caused a conflict, the agencies sometimes simply waived the rules,” they find. “In most instances identified by the Journal, ethics officials certified that the employees had complied with the rules, which have several exemptions.” THE FUTURE OF WORK — The Labor Department today put out a long-anticipated proposed rule that could help many more gig workers be classified as employees instead of independent contractors, changing a Trump administration regulation. Details from Bloomberg Law
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don’t miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | JUDICIARY SQUARE SCOTUS WATCH — The Supreme Court denied an appeal of the death sentence for DYLANN ROOF, the racist Charleston, S.C., mass murderer. More from The Hill MORE POLITICS SURF’S UP — Former Rep. TULSI GABBARD (D-Hawaii), last seen holding on longer than almost anyone else in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary, announced this morning that she’s leaving the party. Gabbard said Democrats are “now under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness, who divide us by racializing every issue & stoke anti-white racism, actively work to undermine our God-given freedoms” and more. 29-minute video IMMIGRATION FILES — The Center for Renewing America, which could be a key policy driver in a second Trump term, today put out a paper calling for an official declaration of war against Mexican drug cartels, Axios’ Alayna Treene and Stef Kight report. The proposal also advocates “a mechanism to shut down legal ports of entry based on estimates of undocumented crossings.” CONGRESS WHITHER CAWTHORN — In WaPo’s Style section, Paul Schwartzman profiles Rep. MADISON CAWTHORN (R-N.C.) as the 27-year-old soon-to-be-former congressman has gone dark in Washington and back home. Could he have a second act in politics? “The story of Cawthorn’s rise and fall is not just about what cost him the support he needed to thrive in Washington,” Schwartzman writes; “it’s also about what didn’t appear to cost him at all.” ADIOS TO ALL THAT — ABBY LIVINGSTON pens an essay about leaving The Texas Tribune and Washington journalism after growing disillusioned with Congress and politics post-Jan. 6: “Some of the most brilliant, thoughtful people I have ever met are members of Congress. But this is a degraded profession. … Until my last day at the Capitol, I walked the place feeling anxious and haunted.” TRUMP CARDS BEHIND THE MIGRANT TRANSPORTS — The moves by the governors of Arizona, Texas and Florida to send migrants to blue states have their roots in a 2018 Trump administration plan to send undocumented criminals to California and the like, NYT’s Maggie Haberman and Michael Bender report. Though legal issues prevented that idea from becoming reality, its adoption in 2022 signals how deeply Trump’s “nativism … has come to define the party’s immigration politics.” PLAYBOOKERS FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Former Rep. Jane Harman (D-Calif.) is now chair of Freedom House’s Board of Trustees. She is currently president emerita and distinguished fellow at the Wilson Center, where she previously was president and CEO. TRANSITIONS — John Carlin is now a partner at Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton and Garrison. He previously was principal associate deputy AG. … Daniel Knight is now head of U.S. federal policy comms at Cisco. He most recently was director of comms at Koch Industries. … Tyler Haymore is now legislative and regulatory policy assistant director at EY. He previously was chief of staff for Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) and is a Ted Budd alum. … … Meg DesCamps is now a director at FGS Global. She previously was senior policy adviser for Sen. Angus King (I-Maine). … Eric Johnson is now managing director in Mercury’s Florida office. He previously was political adviser and media consultant at Johnson Strategies. ENGAGED — Selby Schnobrich, audience solutions P&P account manager at POLITICO, and David Tennent, founder of the CNCT App and a Guy Reschenthaler alum, got engaged Sunday in Malibu, Calif., on the cliffs of Point Dume State Beach. Pic … Another pic WEEKEND WEDDING — Adam Stahl, chief of staff for the corporate security office of Avangrid and a DHS and Senate Commerce alum, and Brittany Barre, senior manager at Pfizer, got married Sunday at Chatham Bars Inn in Chatham, Mass. They met in 2015 through mutual friends and had their first kiss at Penn Station. Pic … Another pic WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Adam Weissmann , adviser and speechwriting director for House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, and Rebecca Certner, program analyst for the NOAA National Sea Grant Office, welcomed Rami Yosef Certner-Weissmann on Oct. 3. — Katie Vollmer, legal assistant for the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of North Carolina, and Justin Vollmer, managing director at McLarty Consulting and a Hillary Clinton and Biden campaign alum, welcomed Winston Holt Vollmer on Oct. 4. Pic
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