Read the jobs report like a pro

From: POLITICO Playbook PM - Friday Dec 02,2022 05:55 pm
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Playbook PM

By Garrett Ross

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WHAT RON KLAIN IS READING — “Gas Prices Are Dropping: Here’s How Much Lower They Might Go,” by WSJ’s Joseph De Avila: “The average cost of regular unleaded gasoline fell to $3.45 a gallon on Thursday, according to OPIS, an energy-data and analytics provider. That is among the lowest levels since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February and a more than 30% drop from a record above $5 in June, according to OPIS.”

FILE - This May 7, 2020, file photo shows a man wearing a mask while walking under a Now Hiring sign at a CVS Pharmacy in San Francisco. California has officially recovered all of the 2.7 million jobs it lost at the start of the pandemic. State officials said Friday, Nov. 18, 2022, the state added 56,700 new jobs in October.

The November jobs report was better than experts predicted. | Jeff Chiu/AP Photo

WHAT JAY POWELL IS READING — This morning, the Labor Department released the November jobs report — marking the last payroll reading that we’ll see in the 2022 calendar year. Here’s the topline takeaway, from CNBC’s Jeff Cox : “Job growth was much better than expected in November despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive efforts to slow the labor market and tackle inflation.”

  • The details: “Nonfarm payrolls increased 263,000 for the month while the unemployment rate was 3.7%, the Labor Department reported Friday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 200,000 on the payrolls number and 3.7% for the jobless rate.”
  • “In another blow to the Fed’s anti-inflation efforts, average hourly earnings jumped 0.6% for the month, double the Dow Jones estimate. Wages were up 5.1% on a year-over-year basis, also well above the 4.6% expectation.”
  • The context: “The monthly gain was a slight decrease from October’s upwardly revised 284,000. A broader measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons edged lower to 6.7%.”

What comes next: “The strong November jobs report keeps the Federal Reserve on track to raise interest rates by a half percentage point at its meeting in two weeks and underscores the risk that officials will raise rates above 5% in the first half of next year,” WSJ’s Nick Timiraos writes .

Elon Musk founder, CEO, and chief engineer/designer of SpaceX, peers at his phone while next to a microphone.

Hate speech is surging on Twitter since Elon Musk took over. | John Raoux/AP Photo

BAD REPORT CARD — NYT’s Sheera Frenkel and Kate Conger are up with a look at the recent rise of hate speech on Twitter since new CEO ELON MUSK took over the platform and opened the door to a less moderated environment.

By the numbers:

  • “Before Elon Musk bought Twitter, slurs against Black Americans showed up on the social media service an average of 1,282 times a day. After the billionaire became Twitter’s owner, they jumped to 3,876 times a day.”
  • “Slurs against gay men appeared on Twitter 2,506 times a day on average before Mr. Musk took over. Afterward, their use rose to 3,964 times a day.”
  • “And antisemitic posts referring to Jews or Judaism soared more than 61 percent in the two weeks after Mr. Musk acquired the site.”

The upshot: “These findings — from the Center for Countering Digital Hate, the Anti-Defamation League and other groups that study online platforms — provide the most comprehensive picture to date of how conversations on Twitter have changed since Mr. Musk completed his $44 billion deal for the company in late October. While the numbers are relatively small, researchers said the increases were atypically high.”

Good Friday afternoon. I’m loving Rep. RODNEY DAVIS’ (R-Ill.) casual Friday look today . Let me know what your Friday mantra is: gross@politico.com .

ALL POLITICS

RUNNING FROM THE RUNOFF — “To boost Georgia’s Warnock, Biden heads to Massachusetts,” by AP’s Zeke Miller and Bill Barrow: “Days before polls close on Tuesday, Biden still has no plans to visit Georgia. Instead he’ll aim to help Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK’S reelection campaign from afar with appearances Friday at a Boston phone bank and fundraiser. They mark the culmination of Biden’s support-from-a-distance strategy that he employed throughout the midterms and that his aides credit with helping his party beat expectations in key races.”

THE BOSSIE BOOST — RONNA McDANIEL got an unexpected ally in her effort to remain as chair of the RNC today, with former Trump hand DAVID BOSSIE sending an email to his fellow committee members endorsing McDaniel’s leadership. Read the letter, via NYT’s Maggie Haberman

 

A message from Kroger and Albertsons Companies:

Kroger has a long track record of supporting its associates. Since 2018, Kroger has invested $1.2 billion in associate wages, resulting in a 25.9% increase in average hourly compensation since 2017We are committed to extending this track record following our merger with Albertsons Cos. to unlock new and exciting opportunities for the 710,000+ associates nationwide that enable the success of the two organizations.

 

POLICY CORNER

IMMIGRATION FILES — “Daily border crossings have stayed near record highs, and the end of a Covid ban this month could mean a new surge,” by NBC’s Julia Ainsley: “As of Oct. 24, just days after the policy was enacted, there was an 80% drop in Venezuelans crossing the border. According to new numbers that have not yet been made public, however, the policy did not depress the overall daily total of migrants crossing. New nationalities, including Mexicans and Central Americans, took the place of the Venezuelans.

“CBP agents and officers are now apprehending migrants 7,500 to 8,000 times a day, the sources familiar with the data said, which is at or close to the record levels before Venezuelans became subject to Title 42. The sources said estimates of the extra number of migrants who might cross daily when Title 42 ends approach 2,500, meaning daily apprehension totals might hit 10,000.”

HIDE AND LEAK — “DOJ Tried to Hide Report Warning That Private Border Wall in Texas Could Collapse,” by ProPublica’s Perla Trevizo and Jeremy Schwartz: “A private border wall built along the Rio Grande in South Texas could collapse during extreme flooding, according to a federally commissioned inspection report that the government sought to keep secret for more than a year.

“The 404-page report, produced by the global engineering firm Arcadis, confirms previous reporting from ProPublica and The Texas Tribune. It also shows for the first time that the federal government independently found structural problems with the border fencing before reaching a settlement agreement with the builder, Fisher Industries, in May.”

CONGRESS

*EYES EMOJI* — Rep. BEN CLINE (R-Va.) appeared on the “John Fredericks Show” today and threw some more cold water on KEVIN McCARTHY’s bid to become speaker. “We have to ask what's going to be different, and if it's not anything substantive, then why should we be voting for Speaker McCarthy?” Cline said. Most interesting, though, was the alternative that Cline appeared to be pushing: “This is the LEE ZELDIN majority. Because Zeldin has delivered these New York seats for Republicans in Biden districts.”

“Zeldin would be a great leader whatever role he plays,” Cline said. “That’s what we need. We need somebody articulating that positive agenda for conservatives, standing up and being a fighter, and Lee Zeldin can do that as well as anybody.” Listen to Cline’s interview

— More troublemaking from @RepMattGaetz on Thursday: “Tonight Kevin McCarthy had dinner with HUNTER BIDEN at a state dinner with [French President EMMANUEL] MACRON to rally support for more US aid to Ukraine. He should not be Speaker.”

— And then there’s this … @MickMulvaney : “Am hearing that the ‘mystery candidate’ that the Gaetz/Meadows team want as Speaker is...JIM BRIDENSTINE. Jim’s a good guy. And he’d get about 10 votes. It’s time to stop this nonsense, elect McCarthy, and get on with providing the check on Biden that the voters asked for.”

WATERS UNDER THE BRIDGE — “‘We want him here’: Maxine Waters urges Bankman-Fried to testify,” by Declan Harty and Zachary Warmbrodt: “House Financial Services Chair MAXINE WATERS (D-Calif.) on Friday said she has invited FTX founder SAM BANKMAN-FRIED to testify at the panel’s Dec. 13 hearing on the cryptocurrency exchange’s collapse.

“‘We want him here,’ Waters told POLITICO. ‘If he’s talking and giving interviews, we’d like for him to be just as candid with us.’ Bankman-Fried has not yet responded to the invitation, Waters said. She is open to letting him appear via video, like he did at this week’s New York Times DealBook Summit.”

RUNNING ON JET FUMES — “Boeing Races to Win Congressional Reprieve for New 737 MAX Models,” by WSJ’s Andrew Tangel: “The plane maker’s executives and lobbyists are racing to persuade federal lawmakers to lift a Dec. 27 deadline set by Congress two years ago as part of a law aimed at making future airplanes safer. The law, enacted in the wake of two deadly crashes of Boeing’s 737 MAX, requires new aircraft to feature modern cockpit-alerting systems to help pilots resolve emergencies.”

GOOD READ — “House Democrats Can Release Trump’s Tax Returns. But Should They?” by Lawfare’s Daniel J. Hemel

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

ALEX JONES LATEST — “Alex Jones files for bankruptcy, owing nearly $1.5B to Sandy Hook families,” by WaPo’s Justine McDaniel: “Filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the southern district of Texas, Jones said his assets were worth between $1 million and $10 million and that his debts were between $1 billion and $10 billion. He said his debts were primarily business debts and estimated that he owed between 50 and 99 creditors.”

COMING TO OUR CENSUS — “Same-Sex Couple Households in U.S. Surpass One Million,” by NYT’s Remy Tumin: “According to the American Community Survey, a companion to the decennial census that is produced every year, there were about 1.2 million same-sex couple households in 2021. About 710,000 of them — nearly 60 percent — were married and about 500,000 were unmarried.”

DEVASTATING READ — “Drugs killed 8 friends, one by one, in a tragedy seen across the U.S.,” by WaPo’s Lenny Bernstein and Jordan-Marie Smith in Greenville, N.C.: “In a nation that suffered more than 107,000 drug overdose deaths in 2021 alone, there are many Greenvilles — places where the powerful opioid fentanyl and other drugs have produced clusters of overdose deaths, or picked off victims one at a time. Here, drugs worked their way inexorably through a group of friends, year after year, for nearly a decade. In one family, loss piled upon tragic loss until almost no one was left.”

 

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Kroger’s merger with Albertsons Cos. will establish a more competitive alternative to large, non-union retailers. Together, we are committed to securing union jobs.

 

WAR IN UKRAINE

THE VIEW FROM MOSCOW — “Russia rejects pullout from Ukraine as condition for talks,” by AP’s Jamey Keaten

THE NEW BATTLEFIELD — “Russia and Ukraine are fighting the first full-scale drone war,” by WaPo’s Isabelle Khurshudyan, Mary Ilyushina and Kostiantyn Khudov in Kharkiv, Ukraine

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — “Chinese Solar Manufacturers Dodged U.S. Tariffs, Probe Finds,” by WSJ’s Yuka Hayashi: “Four leading Chinese solar-cell manufacturers circumvented U.S. tariffs by routing some of their operations through Southeast Asia, a Commerce Department investigation found, according to people familiar with it. The preliminary findings from the closely watched probe — expected to be unveiled Friday — are likely to accelerate importers’ race to find alternative sources either domestically or from other places abroad to meet soaring demand for solar panels.”

THE LATEST IN CHINA — “As Officials Ease Covid Restrictions, China Faces New Pandemic Risks,” by NYT’s Benjamin Mueller and Alexandra Stevenson

THE BRAVE NEW WORLD — “How China’s Police Used Phones and Faces to Track Protesters,” by NYT’s Paul Mozur, Claire Fu and Amy Chang Chien

PLAYBOOKERS

MEDIA MOVE — Brendan Buck has joined MSNBC as a political analyst. He currently is a partner at Seven Letter and is a Paul Ryan and John Boehner alum. His announcement

TRANSITIONS — Adam Jentleson will be chief of staff to Sen.-elect John Fetterman, as Huddle first reported . He is currently serving as a Fetterman transition adviser and is a former deputy chief of staff for Sen. Harry Reid. He is also the author of 2021’s “Kill Switch: The Rise of the Modern Senate and the Crippling of American Democracy.” Kristina Baum is now SVP at strategic comms firm Vision360 Partners. She most recently was VP at Qorvis Communications and is a Trump OSTP alum. … Michael Fitzpatrick is joining the Brunswick Group as a partner. He previously was director of global strategy and innovation and global affairs at Google.

OUT AND ABOUT — The U.S. Global Leadership Coalition hosted its 2022 Tribute Celebration on World AIDS Day on Thursday night at the Ritz-Carlton in D.C.The event honored former President George W. Bush and first lady Laura Bush with its Global Leadership Award and also presented awards to USAID Administrator Samantha Power, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.). SPOTTED: Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), Reps. Colin Allred (D-Texas), Jim Baird (R-Ind.), Don Bacon (R-Neb.), Buddy Carter (R-Ga.), Joaquin Castro (D-Texas), David Cicilline (D-R.I.), Mike Garcia (R-Calif.), Kay Granger (R-Texas), French Hill (R-Ark.), Young Kim (R-Calif.), Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas), Barbara Lee (D-Calif.), Peter Meijer (R-Mich.), Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), Blake Moore (R-Utah), Mary Scanlon (D-Mass.), Brad Schneider (D-Ill.), Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.), Mike Turner (R-Ohio), Norm Coleman, Tom Daschle, Bill Frist, Bob Corker, Ed Royce, OMB Director Shalanda Young, Elaine Chao, John Nkengasong, Isobel Coleman, Atul Gawande, Reta Jo Lewis, Enoh Ebong, Deborah Birx and Raj Shah.

— SPOTTED at a 59th birthday party for Moses Mercado at Paraiso on Capitol Hill on Thursday night: Reps. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), Katherine Clark (D-Mass.), Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.), Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), Lori Trahan (D-Mass.), Annie Kuster (D-N.H.), Jimmy Gomez (D-Calif.) and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.), Marc Gonzales, Lin Whitehouse, Karissa Willhite, Gordon Taylor, Dean Aguillen, Leo Munoz, Jose Borjon, Carlos Paz, Jake Hocgberg, Rob Kelly, Edgar Rivas, Clarissa Robles, ND Ubezonu and Rishi Sahgal.

— SPOTTED at the Cigar Association of America’s Mark Twain birthday party Wednesday night: Josh Dawsey, Molly Ball and David Kihara, Christine Lanza, Marie Cocco, Alexandra Wich, Steve Danon, Guy Bentley, Mark Hyman, Patrick Rooney, Phil Bell, Ken Kies, Kevin Kosar, Tucker Anderson, Cliff May, Richard Williams, Angela Greiling Keane, Jeff Earle, Danny Al-Faruque, Bob Royer, Lindsay Stroud, David Ozgo, Frank Coleman, Dan Cotter, Scott Adams and Leonora Cravotta.

— SPOTTED Wednesday evening at a reception for recently elected pro-life members hosted by ACLJ Action and Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America at the American Center for Law and Justice offices on Capitol Hill: Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), Reps. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) and Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), Rep.-elects Eric Burlison (R-Miss.), Brandon Williams (R-N.Y) and Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas), Mike Pompeo, Jordan Sekulow, Jay Sekulow, Stephanie Williams, Tim Jones, Karen Navarro, James Rockas, Eric Schmitz, Autumn Christensen, Nichole Wilson, Stephen Replogle, Zach Lowry, Susan Occhipinti, Stephen Boyd, Eric Philipkosky, Robert Burkett and Carlyle Gregory.

Bracewell’s Policy Resolution Group hosted the Senate Black Legislative Staff Caucus’ 45th Anniversary Awards on Wednesday night at their D.C. office honoring senior Hill staff and community leaders. Sens. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and Cory Booker (D-N.J.) introduced a resolution commemorating the 45th anniversary of SBLSC. SPOTTED: Taylor Ware, Yasmin Nelson, Spencer Overton, Reggie Love, Kamau Marshall, Mischa Thompson, Trudy Perkins, Jasmine Dickerson, Alysa James, Ariel Marshall, Josh Delaney, Xavier Underwood, Tiffany Smith, Leah Hill, Yemisi Egbewole, Andy Vargas, Aya Ibrahim, Rody Damis, Samuel Negatu and Carissa Smith. Pic Another pic

BONUS BIRTHDAYS: DJ Sigworth and Alex Short

 

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