Biden’s tricky China tightrope

From: POLITICO Playbook PM - Friday Jun 16,2023 05:05 pm

Jun 16, 2023

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WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 15: U.S. President Joe Biden speaks during a screening of the film “Flamin’ Hot” on the South Lawn of the White House on June 15, 2023 in Washington, DC. The movie tells the story of Richard Montanez, a janitor at Frito-Lay who claimed to have created the recipe for Flamin’ Hot Cheetos, which turned the snack into a global phenomenon. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)

President Joe Biden reportedly wanted to have a direct call with Chinese President Xi Jinping earlier this year. | Alex Wong/Getty Images

As Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN heads to China this weekend, the U.S. faces difficult dynamics on multiple fronts — navigating the bilateral relationship with an increasingly skeptical rival and navigating complex policy debates back in Washington.

President JOE BIDEN came close to having a direct call with Chinese President XI JINPING earlier this year, shortly after the U.S. downed a Chinese spy balloon, NBC’s Courtney Kube and Carol Lee scooped today. But his national security team dissuaded him, they report. The president thought he could tamp down tensions with a direct conversation, but his advisers felt that it wasn’t the right time because China was too angry.

Now, China is still angry, and even as Blinken travels there, it’s not clear whether he’ll meet with Jinping, NYT’s Vivian Wang reports. Blinken hopes to smooth things down — but “China’s increasingly assertive, at times outright hostile, stance suggests that the visit will be as much about confrontation as détente.” And most people don’t expect any big breakthroughs.

Back home, the Biden administration is still working through how to structure its forthcoming, long-in-the-works national security executive order to restrict U.S. investments in the Chinese tech sector. One of the latest wrinkles is how the order should handle Chinese artificial intelligence — specifically how the U.S. should determine which AI constitutes a national security threat, WSJ’s Andrew Duehren and Ryan Tracy report. It’s tough for the U.S. to separate ordinary, commercially applied AI from tech that could be used for the military.

The order could run into some political hurdles on the Hill, too. Though there’s general consensus about the need for some policy like this, House Republicans are warning that they’ll intervene if it goes too far in infringing on markets, Semafor’s Morgan Chalfant reports. Rep. ANDY BARR (R-Ky.) says he’d work to “block” it on the Financial Services Committee if it’s not tailored precisely enough, and Chair PATRICK McHENRY (R-N.C.) says he’ll “keep all options on the table.”

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Betsy Woodruff Swan reports: AG MERRICK GARLAND is scheduled to travel to the Netherlands next week, stopping in The Hague to visit the International Criminal Court, according to a person familiar with the travel plans who was granted anonymity to discuss them. He also plans to meet with Dutch officials and discuss efforts to combat terrorism and cybercrime, as well as the war in Ukraine.

Garland and Homeland Security Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS are also scheduled to attend a ministerial in Stockholm next week with European counterparts focused on some of the same topics. A Justice Department spokesperson declined to comment.

The ICC visit comes as Biden’s administration seeks to warm U.S. relations with the tribunal, after the Trump administration put sanctions on the court’s chief prosecutor and a top aide in 2020 over an investigation into alleged U.S. war crimes. The Biden administration revoked those sanctions a few months after inauguration, but there are no indications the U.S. has moved any closer to formally joining the ICC amid concerns that it could target American citizens.

But the U.S. has offered support on some of the court’s investigations — JACK SMITH, the Justice Department special counsel investigating DONALD TRUMP spent years overseeing war crimes prosecutions there — and U.S. leaders hailed its March arrest warrant for Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN.

WHAT GARLAND IS UP TO TODAY — “Justice Department finds pattern of discriminatory policing in Minneapolis,” by the Star Tribune’s Stephen Montemayor and Liz Navratil: “The Minneapolis Police Department routinely engaged in a pattern of racist and abusive behavior that deprives people of their constitutional rights, according to new findings of a Justice Department investigation.”

Happy Friday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. We’ll be off Monday, but Playbook will still be in your inbox every morning. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.

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BEYOND THE BELTWAY

THE ABORTION LANDSCAPE — Iowa’s six-week abortion ban will not go into effect after the state Supreme Court today deadlocked 3-3, leaving a district judge’s order blocking the policy in place, per the Des Moines Register’s William Morris and Katie Akin. That means abortion will remain legal up to 20 weeks in the state.

— “America’s unlikeliest abortion clinic has opened in its reddest state,” by WaPo’s Karin Brulliard in Casper, Wyo.: “[W]ith the state’s restrictions tied up in court, Wellspring’s small stucco building represents a dramatic abortion standoff and a stark expansion of abortion services in a region of wide-open range and sky.”

BATTLE FOR THE BALLOT — “Ohio Supreme Court OKs August election for plan to make it harder to amend constitution,” by The Columbus Dispatch’s Haley BeMiller: “In a 4-3 ruling, the Republican-leaning court determined that lawmakers legally set an Aug. 8 election for Issue 1.”

JUSTICE IN PITTSBURGH — “Gunman found guilty on all charges Pittsburgh synagogue massacre,” by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Megan Guza

2024 WATCH

UNION MAN — Biden is leaning hard into his union ties at the start of his reelection campaign, banking on long-standing labor ties to lift his chances in Pennsylvania in particular, AP’s Will Weissert and Seung Min Kim report. Despite occasional tensions over strikes or electric vehicles, the Biden administration has maintained strong ties with major labor unions, some of which are already backing his bid. The Biden team sees that support as critical in Michigan and Nevada, as well.

In addition to the AFL-CIO, Biden raked in 17 more big union endorsements today, including the American Federation of Teachers, AFSCME and the American Federation of Government Employees.

WAKING UP IN VEGAS — As Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS heads to Nevada this weekend for the Basque Fry, the top two GOP campaigns are stepping up their contest to win the state, NBC’s Natasha Korecki and Henry Gomez report. Trump has won the state’s caucuses twice, and his team doesn’t plan to cede the terrain: “Not surprised Ron DeSantis is looking for a set of balls,” CHRIS LaCIVITA says of the event, which features deep-fried lamb testicles. But Trump has also lost the state in November twice, which DeSantis’ team sees as an opening — especially because the state may switch to primaries this cycle. “I was a two-time Trump chair,” says ADAM LAXALT. “I don’t see a path for him to win Nevada in a general election.”

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

ALL POLITICS

WHAT JON TESTER IS READING — Montana Republican Senate hopeful TIM SHEEHY is being sued for negligence in lengthy litigation over a tragic 2019 plane crash, The Daily Beast’s Ursula Perano scooped. Sheehy was being trained to get a multi-engine sea license in Florida when the accident happened, killing the instructor on board and injuring a 17-year-old girl whose bedroom they crashed into. Sheehy didn’t respond to a request for comment.

DATA DIVE — “How data from abortion rights fights in 2022 could shape 2024,” by The 19th’s Grace Panetta: “Democrats and abortion rights organizers achieved significant wins in the 2022 midterms — and collected hundreds of millions of data points about voters along the way.”

THE ANTI-LGBTQ BACKLASH — The percentage of Americans who say gay or lesbian sex is morally acceptable fell 7 points from last year, falling from 71% to 64%, per a new Gallup survey. The drop-off was especially precipitous among Republicans, plunging from 56% to 41%, as prominent conservatives have mainstreamed lies conflating LGBTQ people with pedophiles.

RELIGION IN POLITICS — From Austin, Adam Wren pens a big POLITICO Magazine profile of Texas state Rep. JAMES TALARICO, a 34-year-old in seminary to become a pastor who’s going viral and exciting Democrats with faith-based defenses of progressive values. There’s already chatter of a possible 2026 gubernatorial run.

POLITICS IN RELIGION — “Southern Baptists’ Fight Over Female Leaders Shows Power of Insurgent Right,” by NYT’s Elizabeth Dias and Ruth Graham: “[T]he ultraconservatives are seizing power, and the ship is beginning to turn. … The crackdown on women is, on its face, about biblical interpretation. But it also stems from growing anxieties many evangelicals have about what they see as swiftly changing norms around gender and sexuality.”

TOP-EDS — Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) and CatholicVote’s BRIAN BURCH are out with a new piece in The Federalist decrying the L.A. Dodgers’ decision to honor the Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence. They also blast the L.A. Times, which they claim refused to respond to their effort to publish this op-ed in the paper over several days.

— “Barbara Boxer warns progressives to back off on Dianne Feinstein or they may be sorry,” by the L.A. Times’ Mark Barabak

TRUMP CARDS

BREACH OF TRUSTY — Trump attorney JIM TRUSTY is withdrawing from Trump’s long-shot defamation lawsuit against CNN, just days after he pulled out of Trump’s team for the big federal criminal probes, Kyle Cheney reports. The filing cites “irreconcilable differences between Counsel and Plaintiff.” Read it here

AGAINST THE GRAIN — Trump’s polling resilience — or improvement — among Republicans since his federal criminal indictment has been much discussed. But NYT’s David Leonhardt dives into the data and finds a more nuanced narrative, with some more troubling signs for Trump. Notably, Republicans are less unified in their dismissal of the charges than Democrats are in their acknowledgment of the case’s seriousness. And the numbers of independents and Republicans who are concerned by the charges is growing compared to his last indictment.

TO SPEAK OR NOT TO SPEAK — “Biden allies start to chafe at Democrats’ silent treatment of Trump indictment,” by NBC’s Peter Nicholas, Katherine Doyle and Sahil Kapur: “Worried that Trump’s claim of political persecution might take hold if it’s left unanswered, some Democrats insist the party needs to mount a full-throated defense of the law enforcement agencies that charged Trump with mishandling sensitive national security records. They also want to paint the indictment as a fresh example of the chaos another Trump presidential term would bring.”

QUITE A HEADLINE — “Trump’s promise of payback for prosecution follows years of attacking democratic traditions,” by AP’s Nicholas Riccardi and Gary Fields

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POLICY CORNER

HMM … “Lina Khan Rejected FTC Ethics Recommendation to Recuse in Meta Case,” by Bloomberg’s Leah Nylen: “The FTC’s ethics official recommended that [Chair LINA] KHAN remove herself from the case to avoid the appearance of bias, but left it up to Khan to decide, concluding it wasn’t an ethics violation if she took part.”

CONNECTED — “$930 million in grants announced in Biden’s effort to expand internet access to every home in the U.S.,” by AP’s Kavish Harjai

PLAYBOOKERS

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the Capitol yesterday for a member roundtable with deans from leading business schools hosted by Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) and Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.): Sens. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.), Reps. Jack Bergman (R-Mich.), Brad Schneider (D-Ill.), Jonathan Jackson (D-Ill.), Warren Davidson (R-Ohio), Annie Kuster (D-N.H.) and Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.), Jonathan Levin, Ash Soni, Erika James, Costis Maglaras, Francesca Cornelli, Lillian Mills, Madhav Rajan and Matthew Slaughter.

— SPOTTED at an early screening of “The Flash” at the Motion Picture Association on Wednesday: Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.), Rebecca Avitia, Neri Martinez, Melanie Fonder Kaye, Christopher Garver, Taft Phoebus, Sabrina Singh, Carlie Waibel, Candis Olmstead, Christine Thompson, Alexa Verveer, Sam Feist, Jeff Zeleny, Karyn Temple, David Inoue, Brent Wilkes, Kent Tong, Pablo Russo, Juan Manuel Cortelletti and Paul Rennie.

— All in Together hosted its annual Black Women Lead Conference at the Howard Theatre yesterday, with panel discussions, a special discussion with singer, songwriter, actress and mental health advocate Michelle Williams, a performance of an original song composed for the event by Tarriona Ball (aka Tank) and a closing set by DJ Tryfe. SPOTTED: Rep. Nikema Williams (D-Ga.), press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield, Lt. Col. Marisol Chalas, Symone Sanders-Townsend, Alisa Ballard, Brittany Masalosalo, Helene Cooper, Alethia Jackson, Laura Coates, Rachel Scott, Karen Finney, Darlene Superville, DeNeen Brown, Alexi McCammond, Michelle Williams, Jennifer Butler, Sahara Lake, Desiree Rogers, Jordyn Holman and Laphonza Butler.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The Senate Foreign Relations Committee has added Eric Harris as comms director, Danny Rodriguez as press secretary and Kemani Scott as press assistant. Harris most recently was senior adviser and comms director for the House Select Committee on Economic Disparity and Fairness in Growth. Rodriguez previously was deputy press secretary for Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.).

TRANSITION — Quint Forgey is now comms director for the congressional campaign of Michael Moore, a Democrat running in South Carolina. He will continue as an MPP candidate at the Harvard Kennedy School and is a POLITICO alum.

BONUS BIRTHDAY: Phil Cox of GP3 Partners and P2 Public Affairs

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