Why Biden is waiting to take on Trump

From: POLITICO Playbook PM - Thursday Dec 21,2023 06:29 pm
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By Eli Okun

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BREAKING — “Rudy Giuliani Files for Bankruptcy After Courtroom Loss,” Bloomberg: RUDY GIULIANI filed papers seeking protection from creditors in New York, listing debts of as much as $500 million and assets of up to $10 million. The filing gives Giuliani a breathing spell from creditors and pauses civil litigation.”

Notable details from Kyle Cheney Giuliani’s debts include $1 million in taxes and $3.5 million in legal fees in addition to his recent $148 million defamation judgment. A spokesperson said the filing would give Giuliani “the opportunity and time to pursue an appeal.”

WASHINGTON, DC - DECEMBER 20: U.S. President Joe Biden returns to the White House December 20, 2023 in Washington, DC. President Biden traveled to Milwaukee and gave remarks at the Wisconsin Black Chamber of Commerce earlier in the day. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

Looming especially large for the Joe Biden reelect is the question of how to handle Donald Trump. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images

MASSAGING THE MESSAGING — President JOE BIDEN’s campaign heads into the holiday season and the election year with significant work to do to sell Americans on handing him a second term. (The latest data point: A WPA Intelligence poll finds Biden’s favorability plunging since the summer and DONALD TRUMP ahead by 2 points nationwide, per National Review’s Ari Blaff.) And his political teams are grappling with how to tailor the right messages to reach different groups of voters across the country.

Looming especially large is the question of how to handle Trump, who remains center stage in American politics despite Democrats’ fervent wishes, as NYT’s Reid Epstein writes. Yes, the Biden campaign has lately sounded the alarm bells about Trump’s plans by repeatedly comparing his rhetoric to that of ADOLF HITLER and other dictators. But Biden’s aides say they’re focusing on striking a tricky balance, NBC’s Mike Memoli reports: They need to convince voters of the threat Trump poses without tipping people into tuned-out Trump fatigue.

Biden’s team thinks a lot of key, unengaged Democrats and independents don’t really believe the choice will be Trump vs. Biden in the end — which is why Biden’s public presence remains focused on his own accomplishments. “It’s a calculated gamble by the campaign,” Memoli writes, as the reelect compiles clips of Republican competitors criticizing Trump that it will deploy later, when voters are really focused on the general election.

Beyond the Biden campaign, though, many Democrats are worried about Black voters in particular not turning out to vote. One new analysis urges the party to mobilize Black communities by building on the model of recent successes in Georgia and Michigan, AP’s Bill Barrow scooped. Their argument is for Dems to engage early, deeply and with real financial resources, accounting for the diversity of Black voters. Among the recommendations: highlight abortion and invest in long-term outreach operations.

Some younger and progressive Biden allies say Biden needs to take a basic step he hasn’t yet done: articulate a clear agenda for his second term, NBC’s Sahil Kapur reports. The likes of Reps. MAXWELL FROST (D-Fla.) and RO KHANNA (D-Calif.) think an inspiring policy platform that would improve people’s lives could motivate crucial unexcited constituencies.

 

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DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — Though today’s the start of winter, things are getting a bit warmer in one key aspect of U.S.-Sino relations: Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. C.Q. BROWN had a video call with Chinese counterpart Gen. LIU ZHENLI this morning, the first time the countries’ military leaders have talked since NANCY PELOSI went to Taiwan in summer 2022.

This is one small but significant step resulting from Biden’s meeting with Chinese President XI JINPING last month, when they agreed to restart military contacts. The U.S. readout of today’s call said Brown emphasized the importance of communication and cooperation, per Lara Seligman.

But China doesn’t sound ready to help the U.S. with protecting a key global shipping route in the Red Sea, Phelim Kine reports. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN wants China to join Operation Prosperity Guardian amid ongoing Houthi attacks motivated by the Israel-Hamas war, but a Chinese spokesperson indicated today that the U.S. and its allies could handle it. Beijing has generally stayed pretty hands-off with recent Middle East tensions.

Good Thursday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.

 

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7 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) presides over a hearing on Capitol Hill June 23, 2022. (Francis Chung/E&E News/POLITICO via AP Images)

Sen. Sherrod Brown's (D-Ohio) reelection race is one of the most important cryptocurrency battles. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

1. BATTLE FOR THE SENATE: Cryptocurrency policy may play an outsize role in the Ohio Senate race, where Democratic incumbent SHERROD BROWN is a leading industry critic as Banking Committee chair but one GOP challenger, BERNIE MORENO, is a big crypto booster, Jasper Goodman reports. The Trump-backed Moreno launched a blockchain startup, and some pro-crypto groups have waded into the state against Brown — a risky move if he wins and retains his committee perch. “The looming clash is a sign of just how partisan the crypto debate is becoming in the run-up to the 2024 election, with key Democrats voicing skepticism of the industry and Republicans increasingly coalescing around friendly policies.”

2. THE THIN BLUE LINE: Trump has lately stepped up his defense of police officers on the campaign trail, with pledges to “indemnify” them from financial misconduct if he wins a second term. Though he hasn’t provided many details, experts tell NYT’s Michael Gold that his idea would likely make scant tangible change and mostly just reinforce protections that already exist. Instead, the promise gives him a political opportunity to align with law enforcement and criticize Democrats as weak on crime — with the significant caveat that Trump has cultivated an extremely anti-law enforcement message when it comes to his own criminal proceedings.

3. WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE: “Under US pressure over fentanyl, Mexico wages ‘imaginary war on drugs,’” by Reuters’ Drazen Jorgic and Jackie Botts: “Mexico's army appears to be raiding only a handful of active drug labs every month, despite U.S. pressure to crack down on fentanyl trafficking, with facilities that were already out of use accounting for 95% of seizures this year … The figures suggest Mexico is ‘fighting an imaginary war on drugs designed to score political points rather than save lives,’ said [Iowa Sen. CHUCK] GRASSLEY, a conservative Republican.”

4. MICHAEL BENNET’S FIGHT: “Michael Bennet’s family fled the Nazis. Now, he won’t give up on Ukraine,” by WaPo’s Jacob Bogage: “Bennet has emerged as a leading voice in Washington for additional U.S. support for Ukraine, drawing on all of his family’s history: the pilgrims and pioneers who made the United States the world’s leading power, and the migrants and refugees who found a haven in this country and helped construct modern America.”

 

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5. STICKING TO THEIR GUNS: “The NRA Is at Rock Bottom — And 15 Years of Tax Filings Tell the Story,” by The Daily Beast’s Roger Sollenberger: “The NRA’s most recent tax return, filed in November of this year for 2022, reveals dramatic declines along almost every conceivable metric: revenue, assets, member dues, lobbying, and political spending — with conversely sharp increases in legal costs and deficits. … 2022 was the fourth year in a row that revenue fell, marking its weakest fundraising year since at least 2008. Membership dues are at all-time lows.”

6. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: In a notable potential shift, a top Israeli official today sounded more open to the U.S. plan for a Palestinian Authority-led post-war Gaza, WSJ’s David Cloud reports. That would hinge on the group undergoing “a fundamental reform,” TZACHI HANEGBI wrote. Meanwhile, the latest U.S. intelligence warns that the past couple of months have only strengthened Hamas’ sway and credibility among Palestinians and throughout much of the Arab world, CNN’s Katie Bo Lillis reports. Hamas “has been able to cast itself as the lone armed group fighting back against a brutal oppressor killing women and children,” the U.S. has concluded, as Israel has killed an estimated 20,000 Palestinians.

Big new investigation: WaPo’s Louisa Loveluck, Evan Hill, Jonathan Baran, Jarrett Ley and Ellen Nakashima raise doubts about the Israeli bombardment of al-Shifa Hospital, finding that the evidence “falls short of showing that Hamas had been using the hospital as a command and control center … That raises critical questions, legal and humanitarian experts say, about whether the civilian harm caused by Israel’s military operations against the hospital … were proportionate to the assessed threat.”

7. THE FUTURE OF ABORTION: “Anti-Abortion Conservatives’ First Target If Trump Returns,” by The Atlantic’s Ronald Brownstein: “[H]owever the high court rules, pressure is mounting inside the GOP coalition for the next Republican president to broadly use executive authority at the Food and Drug Administration and the Justice Department to limit access to mifepristone and to reduce what abortion opponents call ‘chemical abortion.’”

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Robin Vos doesn’t sound likely to impeach Janet Protasiewicz anymore.

Joe Manchin is heading to New Hampshire.

Chris Christie is dismissing calls for him to exit the presidential race.

John Fetterman says now both the left and the right hope he dies.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Jason Pye has rejoined FreedomWorks as policy adviser. He will remain director of the Due Process Institute’s rule of law initiatives.

SPORTS BLINK — Sportico and The Harris Poll have a new survey out that takes stock of various professional sports leagues’ fan-base political leanings: LIV Golf fans are actually among the most liberal, while MLB watchers are some of the most conservative.

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