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Presented by Electronic Payments Coalition: POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the afternoon in Washington. | | | | |  | | By Eli Okun | | | |  | THE CATCH-UP | | | BREAKING — “Peter Navarro sentenced to four months in prison for defying Jan. 6 committee,” by Kyle Cheney
|  President Joe Biden’s economic pitch to voters got another major boost today from the estimate of fourth-quarter GDP. | Samuel Corum/Getty Images | AGAINST THE GRAIN — What if the biggest political albatrosses around the necks of the presidential frontrunners end up being less heavy than they initially seemed? President JOE BIDEN and the economy: Biden’s economic pitch to voters got another major boost today from the Commerce Department’s estimate of fourth-quarter GDP, which significantly outpaced economists’ expectations and showed that recession remains a pretty distant concern. The economy grew at a 3.3% annual clip at the end of 2023 — not quite as rip-roaring as the third quarter but, still, a remarkable show of post-pandemic strength despite the Fed’s inflation-fighting campaign of interest rate hikes. The growth reflects the resilience of consumer spending, which has helped boost the economy especially as inflation moderates. Overall, 2023 saw 3.1% growth, a striking turnaround from many economists’ expectations one year ago that the U.S. would slip into recession. As of now, the Biden administration looks pretty close to having executed the soft landing. In another positive sign, median rents across the country dropped for the eighth straight month, Bloomberg’s Nazmul Ahasan reports. Declines were especially large across big cities in the South, including key swing-state areas like Orlando, Dallas, Austin and Atlanta. Potential economic threats remain, of course, and life is still a good deal more expensive for most Americans than it was a few years ago. But for Biden, whose approval ratings have been hindered by Americans’ dour feelings about the economy (especially inflation and housing), the GDP news is just the latest indicator that sentiment might be turning around just in time for his reelection. “Biden’s surrogates have a long road ahead in convincing the country,” Victoria Guida writes. But “the Biden administration is seizing the moment in a bid to counter one of the fiercest lines of attack by former President Donald Trump.” Here’s the stat you can expect to hear from the Biden campaign all year: At 3.1%, last year saw higher growth than any year under Trump, even pre-pandemic, NYT’s Peter Baker notes. Trump and the legal system: Meanwhile, despite his legal jeopardy on several different fronts, a lot of things have broken Trump’s way lately in (or around) the courtroom, WSJ’s Aruna Viswanatha and Sadie Gurman report in an illuminating 30,000-foot piece. His legal team has been successful in delaying some proceedings. An unrelated Jan. 6 case could damage the legal precedent being used against him in the federal election subversion prosecution. And Fulton County DA FANI WILLIS’ personal controversy has proven a distraction in Georgia. (Speaking of: CNN’s Zachary Cohen, Nick Valencia and Jason Morris scooped that Willis, NATHAN WADE and his law partners will be subpoenaed for a hearing on whether they should be disqualified.) Now, “a knockout blow before the election is looking increasingly unlikely,” the Journal writes. And with many people having tuned out the constant swirl of controversies around Trump, a criminal conviction might be the only thing that could jar voter perceptions into a new realm. Nonetheless, the legal proceedings against him are still moving forward on several fronts. And the first criminal trial to start could actually be Manhattan DA ALVIN BRAGG’s prosecution of Trump for allegedly hiding hush-money payments to porn star STORMY DANIELS, who said she had an affair with him, NYT’s Ben Protess, Jonah Bromwich and William Rashbaum report. Bragg’s office has recently talked with MICHAEL COHEN and other potential witnesses to get them ready for trial. “And in recent public appearances, Mr. Bragg has presented the loftiest possible conception of the case, casting it as a clear-cut instance of election interference.” Elsewhere in Manhattan, Trump is back at the courthouse today for E. JEAN CARROLL’s defamation damages trial against him, stemming from her allegation that he raped her in the 1990s. He may testify. NYT’s Maria Cramer and Benjamin Weiser examine how both legal teams are operating somewhat in the dark because the jury has been kept anonymous. Good Thursday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.
| | | | A message from Electronic Payments Coalition: CREDIT UNIONS & COMMUNITY BANKS IN All 50 STATES OPPOSE THE DURBIN-MARSHALL CREDIT CARD BILL: Local credit unions and community banks serve an essential role in supporting Main Street. So, when 10,000+ credit unions and community banks throughout the country oppose the Durbin-Marshall credit card bill, Congress should pay attention. Durbin-Marshall lines the pockets of corporate mega-stores by shifting costs and risks to credit unions, community banks, and their 140 million customers. Click here to learn more. | | | | | 8 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW | | |  Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said immigration/foreign aid negotiations are still ongoing. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | 1. DECIPHERING MITCH McCONNELL: “Senate GOP torn up with confusion after McConnell’s private border-Ukraine comments,” by Jordain Carney, Burgess Everett and Ursula Perano: “Conservatives argued that the tide had shifted against linking the Ukraine and border. Some McConnell allies said they are still seeking a deal, and others said they are waiting for McConnell’s next move. … McConnell said Thursday morning that negotiations about a border-Ukraine deal are still going, somewhat quelling speculation that his comments … amounted to a death knell.” 2. THE UKRAINE PRESSURE CAMPAIGN: “‘No Time to Go Wobbly’: Why Britain Is Lobbying U.S. Republicans on Ukraine,” by NYT’s Mark Landler: “[DAVID] CAMERON and other senior officials had made it a priority to reach out to Republicans who were hostile to further aid. For reasons of history and geography, Britain recognized that support is not as ‘instinctive’ for Americans as it [is] for the British, according to a senior diplomat … [S]upport for Kyiv in Britain has stayed resolute, undiminished, and nonpartisan in the two years since Russia’s invasion.” 3. IRON (RANGE) MAN: Biden is hitting the road this afternoon to roll out $5 billion in new funding for transportation projects, coming from the bipartisan infrastructure law, Axios’ Joann Muller reports. The projects being funded range from Vancouver, Washington, to Pittsburgh to New Orleans, but the biggest chunk — $1 billion — will replace a bridge between Duluth, Minnesota, and Superior, Wisconsin, where Biden will deliver remarks. Superior also happens to be a critical area in a key swing state for Biden’s reelection: a former Democratic hub that has stayed blue even as the surrounding rural areas have swung hard to the right, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Molly Beck and Lawrence Andrea report. Also from the White House, first lady JILL BIDEN and Education Secretary MIGUEL CARDONA are launching a new effort to spread information about safe firearm storage via schools, AP’s Chris Megerian reports. 4. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: The U.S. and the U.K. are slapping new sanctions on top Houthi leaders as soon as today, Bloomberg’s Alex Wickham, Jennifer Jacobs and Mohammed Hatem scooped. And as the U.S. tries to land an Israel-Hamas deal for a longer cease-fire and hostage release, Biden is sending CIA Director WILLIAM BURNS to Europe to help broker it, WaPo’s John Hudson and Claire Parker scooped. But around the region, the U.S. is still straining against the limits of its influence in various and sometimes surprising ways. A massive buffer zone that Israel is building around the perimeter of the Gaza Strip has frustrated the Biden administration, which told Israeli leaders to no avail that it could worsen tensions, WSJ’s Dov Lieber, David Cloud and Anat Peled report. And WSJ’s Michael Gordon, Vivian Salama and Warren Strobel scooped that the U.S. actually provided actionable intelligence to Iran warning of a potential Islamic State terrorist attack — but Iran failed to act, and more than 80 people died.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE GOLDEN STATE POLITICAL ARENA: POLITICO’s California Playbook newsletter provides a front row seat to the most important political news percolating in the state’s power centers, from Sacramento and Los Angeles to Silicon Valley. Authors Lara Korte and Dustin Gardiner deliver exclusive news, buzzy scoops and behind-the-scenes details that you simply will not get anywhere else. Subscribe today and stay ahead of the game! | | | | | 5. THE GENERAL ELECTION IS HERE: Trump has jumped out to a 6-point lead over Biden in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll — though the low numbers, 40% to 34%, reflect that many Americans aren’t thrilled with either choice. The looming likely rematch between the two men will highlight two “fundamentally disparate visions of the nation,” NYT’s Peter Baker writes in a big analysis, and both have work to do to convince Americans of their pitch. As Trump gears up for the fight, he benefits in both the primary and the general from a way more efficient and professionalized campaign — one that belies the chaos of the candidate himself, Bloomberg’s Nancy Cook reports. And he’s already asking lots of friends and allies about whom he should select as his running mate, Reuters’ Steve Holland, Alexandra Ulmer and Tim Reid report. Many of them are recommending that he pick a woman or Black person. 6. SCOTUS WATCH: “Clerks for hire: The Supreme Court recruiting race,” by WaPo’s Tobi Raji: “During the courting process, the city’s top law firms treat this elite group of lawyers to perks like an expensive dinner at the Wharf or Penn Quarter or a trip to a baseball game or spa. The recruitment is so competitive that signing bonuses for Supreme Court law clerks have reached a new high — $500,000, according to a spokeswoman for law firm Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher.” 7. MEDIA’S TERRIBLE 2024 CONTINUES: Business Insider told staff today that it will lay off 8% of the company, per Variety. It’s just the latest round of brutal layoffs to hit a major news outlet in the first few weeks of the new year. (Business Insider and POLITICO share a parent company, Axel Springer.) 8. SANCTIONS FALLING SHORT: “Most of Russia’s War Chips Are Made by US and European Companies,” by Bloomberg’s Alberto Nardelli: “The vast majority of restricted technologies enter Russia via re-exports from third countries including China, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. The US and the EU have been working to block those routes.”
| | | | CONGRESS OVERDRIVE: Since day one, POLITICO has been laser-focused on Capitol Hill, serving up the juiciest Congress coverage. Now, we’re upping our game to ensure you’re up to speed and in the know on every tasty morsel and newsy nugget from inside the Capitol Dome, around the clock. Wake up, read Playbook AM, get up to speed at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report, and fuel your nightly conversations with Inside Congress in the evening. Plus, never miss a beat with buzzy, real-time updates throughout the day via our Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Summer Lee raised $1 million in the fourth quarter. J. Brett Blanton and Chere Rexroat are facing a new discrimination complaint at the Architect of the Capitol’s office. Jared Moskowitz and the younger House Oversight Dems are going tit-for-tat on Republicans’ Hunter Biden probe. Mike Johnson is backing Derek Merrin over Craig Riedel and J.R. Majewski in Ohio. George Latimer landed AIPAC’s backing against Jamaal Bowman. SAD NEWS — Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) announced that his wife, Bobbi, has died after a two-year battle with brain cancer. More from Oil City News … Tributes FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The prominent Democratic election law firm Elias Law Group has launched a new effort, Election Protection Intelligence Collaborative, made up of 11 full-time staffers who drill down on election administration and voting rules at a local level. The firm announced EPIC in a memo to hundreds of Democratic/progressive campaigns and groups today; it’s already been working with the DCCC, DSCC and DGA. Liza Conrad leads the collaborative as executive director. MEDIA MOVE — Victoria Guida is taking on a different role at POLITICO as economics and finance columnist, writing a new “Capital Letter” reported column. She’s previously been an economic policy reporter. WHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Jed Herrmann is now a senior adviser at OMB. He previously worked on economic recovery programs at the Treasury Department. WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — Mario Moreno Zepeda will be chief of staff for the office of the provost at the University of Chicago. He previously was chief of staff for the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy. TRANSITIONS — Kevin Bishop is retiring from his role as comms director for Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), which he’s held since 2002. … Wilson Baldwin is now Democratic comms director for the House China Select Committee. He continues as deputy chief of staff and comms director for Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.). … … Kristen Wilson is now strategic acquisition data management lead in the Office of Federal Procurement Policy at OMB. She most recently was a management analyst in that office on detail from the GSA. … Kirk Williamson will be executive director of the New Hampshire Prescription Drug Affordability Board. He previously was health care manager of the drug pricing and clinical trials portfolio at Arnold Ventures. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Sara Outterson, chief federal legislative counsel at the Center for Reproductive Rights, welcomed Adam David Outterson on Jan. 4. Pic — Alex Gleason, assistant VP of federal and political affairs at the National Association of Mutual Insurance Companies, and Anne Davey Gleason, assistant VP of federal government relations at Principal Financial, welcomed Elizabeth “Ellie” Grace Gleason on Friday. Pic … Another pic Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | | | A message from Electronic Payments Coalition: CREDIT UNIONS & COMMUNITY BANKS IN All 50 STATES OPPOSE THE DURBIN-MARSHALL CREDIT CARD BILL: The Durbin-Marshall credit card bill would create new government mandates on credit cards that would put consumer data and access to credit at risk. The bill would benefit corporate mega-stores, like Walmart and Target, at the expense of Main Street and the 140 million Americans who rely on credit unions and community banks. The threat of Durbin-Marshall to small financial institutions is so clear that 10,000+ credit unions and community banks in America are opposed to the bill. They also see through the so-called “carve out” for smaller banks which is a hoax to try and buy their support. Their message to Congress is simple: on behalf of credit unions and community banks in all 50 states, commit to actively opposing the Durbin-Marshall credit card bill. Click here to learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our politics and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |  |
