Two big GOP Senate shakeups

From: POLITICO Playbook PM - Friday Feb 09,2024 06:34 pm
Presented by The American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network: POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the afternoon in Washington.
Feb 09, 2024 View in browser
 
Playbook PM

By Eli Okun

Presented by

The American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network
THE CATCH-UP

HOST JOST — The White House Correspondents’ Dinner will be headlined this year by COLIN JOST, the “Weekend Update” co-anchor and staff writer on “Saturday Night Live.” More from The Hollywood Reporter

Larry Hogan waves to a crowd.

Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan is putting his hat in the ring for an open Senate seat. | Scott Olson/Getty Images

WHIPLASH FOR THE NRSC — Two major GOP campaign announcements jolted the Senate map for November — one long feared but expected by establishment Republicans, the other long wished for but arriving as a surprise.

Montana: Rep. MATT ROSENDALE brushed aside a long pressure campaign to stand aside and filed to run against Democratic Sen. JON TESTER, who defeated Rosendale six years ago. In keeping with his role as a Freedom Caucus rabble-rouser in the House, Rosendale took nearly as many shots at Republicans as at Democrats in his launch video, casting himself as a DONALD TRUMP loyalist who would take on President JOE BIDEN, Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL and the “Uniparty.” More from the Billings Gazette

His entrance sets up the most crucial primary for Republicans on the Senate map this year, as Rosendale goes up against the NRSC-backed TIM SHEEHY for one of Democrats’ most vulnerable seats. Many party leaders in Washington have worked hard to snuff Rosendale out, concerned that he could be yet another far-right nominee who fumbles away a winnable race. NRSC Chair STEVE DAINES, a fellow Montanan, put out a statement blasting Rosendale for “choosing to abandon his seat and create a divisive primary.”

Rosendale raised way less than Sheehy last quarter, but prominent MAGA figures’ support could give him a boost. Perhaps the biggest question now is whether Trump will weigh in.

Maryland: No, this isn’t where Rosendale is running, despite his thick Bawlmer accent (as Sheehy was quick to highlight). Instead, former Gov. LARRY HOGAN made the big announcement that he’s putting his hat in the ring for the open Senate seat, as Burgess Everett and Ally Mutnick scooped — a big recruitment victory for McConnell that could expand Republicans’ Senate map, despite Hogan’s daunting odds in a very blue state.

The centrist Hogan’s launch video struck a very different tone from Rosendale’s, saying he would put country above party and strive for “common decency and common sense” in Washington — no surprise from one of the most prominent anti-Trump voices in the GOP. The decision means Hogan won’t be running for president with No Labels, as some had speculated he might.

Maryland is a tough lift for Republicans, having gone for Biden by more than 30 points in 2020. But Hogan has surprised Democrats before, scoring two gubernatorial victories, and there’s no incumbent in the way. (Rep. DAVID TRONE and Prince George’s County Executive ANGELA ALSOBROOKS are duking it out in the Democratic primary — which, as Burgess notes, “just got a LOT more interesting.”) At the very least, it could force Democrats to spend even more money on defense in a heavily contested race. Sabato’s Crystal Ball is moving its race rating from safe Democratic to likely Democratic.

Meanwhile in Arizona: Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA is neither a Republican nor a declared candidate yet this year. But the independent — who’s one of the last big question marks on the Senate map — has raised much of her money recently from notable GOP donors, the Arizona Republic’s Ronald Hansen reports, including one event scheduled for today that was called off because Sinema had to remain in D.C. for votes.

MIDDLE EAST LATEST — The next big phase of the Israel-Hamas war is coming: PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU said he’s told the military to make evacuation plans for Rafah, per AP’s Najib Jobain and Josef Federman. That’s the city in southern Gaza that has swelled with an estimated 1.4 million displaced people amid Israel’s bombardment, which has already killed about 28,000 people and triggered a humanitarian catastrophe. Netanyahu said Israel needs to attack Rafah to eliminate Hamas.

Elsewhere in the region, Reuters’ Phil Stewart and Idrees Ali have an interesting look at just how difficult it will be for U.S. troops to remain safe from Iranian-backed militants, whose “periodic success in attacks may be unavoidable, given the sheer number of drones, rockets and missiles fired.”

Happy Friday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.

A message from The American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network:

Multi-cancer early detection tests have game-changing potential in the fight against cancer. By testing for dozens of cancers - including rare forms - at their earliest stages with a simple blood test, these tests could revolutionize early cancer detection once FDA-approved and clinical benefit is shown. Congress: pass H.R. 2407 and S. 2085 to create a pathway to access to these tests in Medicare to make time for patients and their families. Learn more.

 
7 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

FILE - Table top voting booths are stored at the Allegheny County Election Division warehouse on the Northside of Pittsburgh, Friday, Nov. 6, 2020. New data from automatic voter registration at Pennsylvania driver’s license centers shows that sign-ups have grown but remain almost evenly divided between the political parties in the presidential battleground state. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar, File)

U.S. officials are gaming out a number of potential disruptions to the election. | Gene J. Puskar, File/AP Photo

1. NIGHTMARE FUEL: CNN’s Sean Lyngaas goes deep on the Biden White House’s first simulation, held in December, of what could go wrong with the 2024 election — which ranged from imagining Election Day violence to grappling with a hypothetical Chinese AI deepfake showing election interference. “When it comes to a coordinated federal response to things like rampant disinformation, deepfakes and the harassment of election officials, ‘We’re all f—king tied up in knots,’” one U.S. official says. In both of those potential scenarios, the national security officials leaned toward letting state and local officials take the lead in responding, especially as, these days, “the disclosure of intelligence may be construed as political.”

2. WELCOMING THE ‘WORLD’S COOLEST DICTATOR’: Salvadoran President NAYIB BUKELE, who has led a massive gang crackdown that has improved El Salvador’s safety while raising concerns about authoritarianism and constitutional violations, is coming to CPAC this month, Breitbart’s Matthew Boyle scooped.

3. PULL UP A CHAIR: “Who Will Replace Ronna McDaniel as Leader of the R.N.C.?” by NYT’s Neil Vigdor: “[W]hile the former president wields broad influence over who leads the party, his power is not absolute. And Republican committee members may not be in lock step. … [DREW] McKISSICK, the chairman of the South Carolina Republican Party, has in recent days expressed his appetite for the job directly to Mr. Trump … Yet as Mr. Trump marches toward securing the G.O.P. nomination, it is [North Carolina GOP Chair MICHAEL] WHATLEY who is widely viewed as the heir apparent to [RONNA] McDANIEL.”

Whatley has deleted a tweet that condemned the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection, but he’s generally been a strong proponent of lies about 2020 election fraud, CNN’s Andrew Kaczynski and Em Steck report.

 

YOUR VIP PASS TO THE MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE: Dive into the heart of global security with POLITICO's Global Playbook at the 2024 Munich Security Conference. Gain exclusive insights and in-depth analysis as author Suzanne Lynch navigates the crucial discussions, key players and emerging trends that will shape the international security landscape. Subscribe now to Global Playbook and stay informed.

 
 

4. STILL STANDING: Is NIKKI HALEY worried that dragging out the GOP presidential primary could damage Trump’s general-election chances? No way: “I’m weakening Trump because of who Trump is,” she tells WSJ’s John McCormick in Aiken, South Carolina. “Telling the truth in a primary is very important, so that’s what I’m doing.” With her campaign adopting an “insurgent mentality,” it’s still pulling in enough donor money to stay afloat for several weeks, and her crowds are getting bigger, despite Haley’s long odds.

At the same time, the speed with which Trump has consolidated the vote has left some in Haley’s campaign and orbit grappling with “a sense of betrayal … about her loss of support within the Republican Party in recent weeks,” Reuters’ Gram Slattery reports from Hilton Head Island. They “feel increasingly isolated by a hostile party”; one says it’s like F-16s circling above.

5. FIRST LADY FILES: “As Her Husband Faces Tumult, Jill Biden Is a Protective Force,” by NYT’s Katie Rogers, adapted from her forthcoming book, “American Woman”: “In January 2022, after Mr. Biden held a two-hour news conference, the first lady dropped by a meeting with the president and his aides. She asked the group, which included the president, why nobody stepped in to stop it, according to a person who was in the room. Where was the person, she demanded, who was supposed to end the news conference? Officials later apologized to her.”

6. BEYOND THE BELTWAY: Leading transgender rights groups are gearing up to fight a wave of restrictive bills in state capitols across the country, AP’s David Crary reports. A merger between the Transgender Legal Defense and Education Fund and the National Center for Transgender Equality later this year — with the new name Advocates for Trans Equality — aims to combine forces and strengthen their political power. And the advocates say they plan to keep fighting anti-transgender legislation both in the courts and on the campaign trail.

7. WHAT GINA RAIMONDO IS UP TO: “Biden administration announces $5 billion commitment for research and development of computer chips,” by AP’s Josh Boak: “The National Semiconductor Technology Center is being funded through the CHIPS and Science Act. … The center would help to fund the design and prototyping of new chips, in addition to training workers for the sector.”

 

CONGRESS OVERDRIVE: Since day one, POLITICO has been laser-focused on Capitol Hill, serving up the juiciest Congress coverage. Now, we’re upping our game to ensure you’re up to speed and in the know on every tasty morsel and newsy nugget from inside the Capitol Dome, around the clock. Wake up, read Playbook AM, get up to speed at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report, and fuel your nightly conversations with Inside Congress in the evening. Plus, never miss a beat with buzzy, real-time updates throughout the day via our Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

A promo image for "The Daily Show" with Jon Stewart is pictured, with the tagline "A Second Term We Can All Agree on."

Jon Stewart has a new tagline as he returns to “The Daily Show” next week.

Alex Zdan jumped into the New Jersey GOP Senate primary.

John Hostettler is seeking a congressional comeback in Indiana.

Nancy Pelosi and Emanuel Cleaver made a Super Bowl bet.

OUT AND ABOUT — Public Policy Holding Company hosted a Black History Month breakfast reception at the Hart Senate Office Building yesterday morning, featuring Sens. Laphonza Butler (D-Calif.), Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.). SPOTTED: Maya Wiley, Keenan Austin Reed, Elsie Cooke-Holmes, Kimberly McClain, Jamie Jackson, Shaniqua McClendon, Will Cunningham, Nicole Austin-Hillery, Darrel Thompson, Sesha Joi Moon, Damon Todd Hewitt and Cameron Trimble.

MAKING IT OFFICIAL — The White House announced that Willie Phillips Jr., who’s been serving as acting chair of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, is now officially the agency’s chair.

MEDIA MOVE — Noah Shachtman is stepping down as editor-in-chief of Rolling Stone, NYT’s Benjamin Mullin scooped, amid “editorial differences with Gus Wenner.” He’ll remain a contributing writer for the magazine and work on a startup project.

TRANSITIONS — The Interior Department is adding Maryam Hassanein as special assistant for the assistant secretary for land and minerals management, Manuokalani “Manu” Tupper as adviser in the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management and John Watts as senior counselor in the Bureau of Reclamation. … Camille Hosman is now director of federal government affairs at Stanford University. She previously was associate director of federal affairs at the University of Pennsylvania. … The Klein/Johnson Group is acquiring Perry Bayliss Government Relations, bringing on Steve Perry and Kim Bayliss as principals.

Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.

Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.

 

A message from The American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network:

Advertisement Image

Access to multi-cancer early detection tests in Medicare can make potential precious moments possible. Pass H.R. 2407 and S. 2085. Congress: Act now.

 
 

Follow us on Twitter

Rachael Bade @rachaelmbade

Eugene Daniels @EugeneDaniels2

Ryan Lizza @RyanLizza

Eli Okun @eliokun

Garrett Ross @garrett_ross

 

Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family

Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook

View all our politics and policy newsletters

Follow us

Follow us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Instagram Listen on Apple Podcast
 

To change your alert settings, please log in at https://www.politico.com/_login?base=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.com/settings

This email was sent to by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA

| Privacy Policy | Terms of Service

More emails from POLITICO Playbook PM

Feb 08,2024 06:17 pm - Thursday

The Senate gets moving on the supplemental

Feb 07,2024 06:19 pm - Wednesday

Senate GOP warms to Schumer's Plan B

Feb 06,2024 06:17 pm - Tuesday

Citizen Trump

Feb 05,2024 06:13 pm - Monday

GOP senators start to sour on border deal

Feb 02,2024 06:42 pm - Friday

Biden’s job boom continues

Feb 01,2024 06:37 pm - Thursday

Biden puts Israel on notice

Jan 31,2024 06:28 pm - Wednesday

Johnson presses forward with tax bill