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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Matt Berg | |  Over the weekend, President Joe Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the potential ground invasion “should not proceed” without a plan to ensure civilian safety. | Evan Vucci/AP | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt World leaders are calling for Israel to avoid a “catastrophic” invasion of the city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip, and Biden administration statements against it are getting harsher. The question now is what options JOE BIDEN has to get Israel to hold off. The international pressure is building. The latest calls for Israel to avoid an operation in Rafah — where about 1.5 million Palestinians are sheltering after being displaced from their homes — come from some of Washington’s close allies: Canada, Australia and New Zealand. The leaders called for a permanent ceasefire and urged Hamas to lay down its arms and release all hostages immediately. “A military operation into Rafah would be catastrophic,” the countries’ prime ministers wrote in a joint statement today, noting that many of their own citizens are in the city. “There is simply nowhere else for civilians to go … There is growing international consensus.” That comes after South Africa requested Wednesday that the United Nations’ International Court of Justice consider an intervention in Israel’s anticipated military operation in Rafah. Over the weekend, Biden told Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU that the potential ground invasion “should not proceed” without a plan to ensure civilian safety. On Monday, Biden repeated the sentiment. National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY was even more direct today: “A major operation in Rafah would be a disaster” without a plan to protect civilians, he said. Kirby added: “We're continuing to talk to our Israeli counterparts about what that plan might look like.” But the White House isn’t planning to punish Israel if it launches a military campaign in Rafah without ensuring civilian safety, as NatSec Daily reported Tuesday. Still, if Biden wants to take action in response to a Rafah invasion, there are a few things he could do. We dug through some of the administration’s past actions to consider what might be on the table:
- Washington could withhold support for Israel at the United Nations if a resolution comes up. While the U.S. has a long history of blocking U.N. resolutions against Israel, but the Biden administration is facing international pressure to take a harder line on Israel at the U.N.
- Citing the humanitarian crisis in Rafah, Biden could re-start funding to the U.N. Relief and Works Agency, which saw top donors pause funding after Israel alleged that several staffers took part in abductions and killings during Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack. The U.S. government has given nearly $1 billion to UNRWA in the past three years, including $296 million in 2023 alone, indicating how important the agency’s work is.
- The White House could call for a permanent cease-fire. That’s unlikely as it still believes in Israel’s goal of destroying Hamas. Biden has instead pushed for humanitarian pauses. But a Rafah invasion has the potential to cause the number of civilian casualties to jump sharply, which could up pressure on the Biden administration to reconsider.
There’s no indication Biden will do any of these things, but it shows he does have some tools at his disposal short of cutting off or conditioning military assistance to Israel, as some progressive lawmakers have suggested. The National Security Council didn’t respond to NatSec Daily’s request for comment. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: F-35: Advancing 21st Century Security
The F-35 is vital to 21st Century Security, connecting assets across domains with advanced capabilities and networking to ensure those we serve stay ahead of ready. Learn More. | | | | | HOSPITAL RAID: Israeli forces conducted a “limited” operation targeting Hamas in the Nasser Medical Complex in the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis today, The New York Times’ VIVIAN YEE reports. The operation has raised concerns about the safety of the hundreds of patients, medical workers and displaced Palestinians who are sheltering there. It comes two days after Israel called for people to evacuate the complex, the largest in the area and one of the last functioning hospitals in the territory. Israel’s military said special forces were “conducting a precise and limited operation inside Nasser” against the militant group, which it accused of hiding among wounded civilians. A spokesperson for Gaza’s health ministry said those troops had killed a patient and injured several others. As Israel’s military operation continues to devastate the Gaza Strip’s infrastructure, a U.N. trade official estimated that post-war reconstruction of the territory will cost $20 billion, Reuters’ EMMA FARGE and GABRIELLE TETRAULT-FARBER report. LEBANON STRIKES: Hezbollah vowed revenge today as Israel continued to launch attacks in southern Lebanon, Reuters reports. After Hezbollah said six of its fighters were also killed in Israeli airstrikes on Wednesday, the Iran-backed militant group said Israel would “pay the price” for the strikes. The fighting continuing a cross-border conflict that has flared up since the Israel-Hamas war began. Lebanese state media also reported that 10 civilians were killed in widespread airstrikes on Wednesday, The NYT’s ADAM SELLA and EUAN WARD report. Those attacks have come days after a cross-border attack killed an Israeli woman and injured several others. KYIV WITHDRAWS TROOPS: NSC spox Kirby blamed Congress’s inability to pass Ukraine assistance for the Kyiv’s struggle to fend off Russian troops attacking an eastern town. “Unfortunately, we're getting reports from the Ukrainians that the situation is critical” in the embattled town of Avdiivka, “with the Russians continuing to press Ukrainian positions every single day,” Kirby said. Ukraine is withdrawing some troops from the town and moving them to "more advantageous positions" in other places where it’s trying to push out Russian forces, Reuters’ YULIIA DYSA and TOM BALMFORTH report. “Russia is sending wave after wave of conscripted forces to attack Ukrainian positions, and because Congress has yet to pass the supplemental bill, we've not been able to provide Ukraine with the artillery shells that they desperately need,” Kirby added. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | | | PUTIN’S PREFERENCE: Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN said late Wednesday that JOE BIDEN would be better for Russia as president than DONALD TRUMP, our own JOE STANLEY-SMITH reports. Biden “is a more experienced, predictable person. He is a politician of the old school. But we will work with any leader of the United States, who is trusted by the American people,” Putin said in an interview on Russian television when asked to choose between the two. Trump faced criticism during his presidency for his friendly relationship with Putin and recently stirred controversy by saying he’d “encourage” Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to NATO allies that don’t meet defense spending targets. The Russian leader has previously also dismissed evidence that his country meddled in the 2016 vote to elect Trump. ICYMI — Trump reiterates to NATO allies: If you don’t pay up, ‘I’m not going to protect you’ by our own MERIDITH McGRAW
| | HACKERS SACKED: The Justice Department today announced it had disrupted a network of compromised routers that Russian state hackers used to infiltrate U.S. and allied networks, our own JOSEPH GEDEON reports (for Pros!). Speaking at the Munich Cyber Security Conference, FBI Director CHRISTOPHER WRAY said authorities used a court order to cut off access to home and small-business routers infiltrated by Moscow’s intelligence agency. Those routers had been used to collect info from “military, security and corporate organizations,” the DOJ said in a statement. The takedown operation targeted a prolific Kremlin military outfit and marks the second time in as many months that U.S. law enforcement has used a court order to stop state cyber operators from abusing hacked routers to conceal and stage their activity.
| | | | YOUR VIP PASS TO THE MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE: Dive into the heart of global security with POLITICO's Global Playbook at the 2024 Munich Security Conference. Gain exclusive insights and in-depth analysis as author Suzanne Lynch navigates the crucial discussions, key players and emerging trends that will shape the international security landscape. Subscribe now to Global Playbook and stay informed. | | | | | | | | AHEAD OF SCHEDULE: France said it will reach NATO's target of spending 2 percent of GDP on defense in 2024, hitting the goal earlier than previously forecast, our own LAURA KAYALI reports. Paris is dramatically increasing spending. In 2017, France spent $32 billion on its military but it eventually reached $74 billion this year, French Armed Forces Minister SÉBASTIEN LECORNU announced today, speaking ahead of a NATO defense ministers meeting in Brussels. The French defense budget this year is $51 billion and is expected to steadily increase in the coming years under the country's seven-year military planning law. Previous forecasts estimated that France wouldn’t reach the 2 percent figure before 2025 at the earliest. Also today, U.K. Defense Secretary GRANT SHAPPS said NATO countries should stick to their spending pledge, pushing back on Trump’s recent NATO comments but saying that members need to "play their part,” our own STUART LAU reports.
| | TURNER-ING UP THE HEAT: Rep. ANDY OGLES (R-Tenn.) called on Speaker MIKE JOHNSON to launch a formal inquiry into House Intelligence chair Rep. MIKE TURNER (R-Ohio) today after he issued a vague public warning about a national security threat. As our own OLIVIA ALAFRIZ reports, Ogles, a member of the far-right House Freedom Caucus, wrote in a letter to Johnson that Turner’s actions were “reckless” and accused him of making the statement in an effort to bolster support for two of his legislative priorities: sending more aid to Ukraine and renewing a controversial surveillance power under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. NSC spox Kirby confirmed today that Russia is developing an anti-satellite capability, but stressed that “this is not an active capability that's been deployed” and it’s not “a weapon that can be used to attack human beings or cause physical destruction here on Earth.” Turner’s office issued a statement after Ogles’ letter defending the warning: “The House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence worked in consultation with the Biden administration to notify Congress of this national security threat,” Turner wrote. NEW UKRAINE-BORDER BILL: A bipartisan group of lawmakers plans to roll out their alternative proposal to send military aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan and secure the border today, as our own CONNOR O’BRIEN, ANTHONY ADRAGNA and JOE GOULD report. Rep. DON BACON (R-Neb.) said a compromise Ukraine-border funding bill would be unveiled today — the last day before the House leaves D.C. for a week-plus recess — with a group of four bipartisan co-sponsors. The centrist lawmaker acknowledged they don't have wide GOP buy-in on the package yet. "We've just got to find a way to get more Republicans on board," Bacon said. The group — which includes Bacon, Rep. BRIAN FITZPATRICK (R-Pa.) and two Democrats that Bacon declined to name — is focusing their proposal on military assistance, trimming billions in humanitarian and economic aid from the $95 billion package passed by the Senate this week. Those lawmakers also plan to include a form of the Trump-era "Remain in Mexico" immigration policy, which requires asylum seekers to stay in Mexico while awaiting a hearing with U.S. immigration judges.
| | | |   | | | | | SOUR GRAPES: News that Rep. MARK GREEN (R. Tenn.) won’t seek re-election is leaving a sour taste in the mouths of some colleagues on the Homeland Security Committee, our own JOHN SAKELLARIADIS writes in. It comes just one day after Green — who chaired the influential panel — led a controversial vote to impeach DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS. “He lit a match that set the entire committee on fire, and is walking away now,” a former GOP committee staffer, granted anonymity as a condition of discussing the matter, told John. The individual also said Republicans staffers on House Homeland first learned of Green’s decision via the press. Unsurprisingly, it isn’t sitting well with committee Democrats either. The impeachment vote was a “low moment” for Congress, Rep. GLENN IVEY (D-MD) said in an interview. “It was raw politics, and it lowers the standard for impeachment going forward.” In a statement, JOHN COOPER, committee staff director, said Green did “exactly what he told the House GOP Steering Committee he would do when he ran for the job: Pass legislation to secure our borders and hold Secretary Mayorkas accountable. Both have been top priorities for the Conference—and for the Republican members on the Committee, who all, with different districts, ideologies, and backgrounds, fully supported these priorities.” HUMAN RIGHTS OFFICE OUT: Venezuela ordered the local United Nations human rights office to suspend operations and told its staff to leave within three days, The Associated Press reports. The announcement from Foreign Affairs Minister YVÁN GIL followed the detention of human rights attorney ROCIO SAN MIGUEL, which drew international criticism. The office had been used to “to maintain a discourse” against Venezuela worldwide, Gil said. It’s a stunning move from Caracas, which will face less foreign oversight as President NICOLÁS MADURO’s government has increasingly been accused of repression. NatSec Daily reached out to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights but didn’t immediately hear back. ALL ABOARD: A U.S. Coast Guard ship seized weapons intended for the Houthi militant group during an operation in the Arabian Sea in late January, your anchor reports. On Jan. 28, personnel aboard the Coast Guard cutter Clarence Sutphin Jr. located and boarded a vessel, U.S. Central Command announced today, not specifying who operated the boat or providing other details. But the shipment originated from Iran, the command said. Once on board, Coast Guard members found more than 200 packages of medium-range ballistic missile components, explosives, uncrewed underwater and surface vehicle components, military-grade communication and network equipment, and anti-tank guided missile launcher components, Central Command said. Read: DAVID CAMERON won’t ‘lecture’ US on Ukraine … after Trump ally tells him to ‘kiss my ass’ by our own ANDREW McDONALD
| | — ANDY OARE, who was Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN's director of digital media and a member of Biden's campaign and transition teams, has launched a new public affairs and marketing firm, BlueWing Impact. Among BlueWing's first clients is the defense tech startup OpsLab, which has six contracts with the Air Force.
| | — DOD, State Department and USAID: Operation Atlantic Resolve including U.S. government activities related to Ukraine — MATTHEW KARNITSCHNIG, POLITICO: How the U.S. broke Kosovo and what that means for Ukraine — MIKHAIL ZYGAR, The New York Times: Putin’s puppets are coming to life
| | — Government Executive Media Group's Washington Technology, 7:45 a.m.: Inside the new National Defense Industrial Strategy — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10 a.m.: U.S. policy and the Israel-Hamas war — Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 12 p.m.: U.S.-Korea relations Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who calls our writing a “disaster.” We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, whose prose is immaculate.
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