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Presented by Facebook: POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the afternoon in Washington. | | | | |  | | By Eli Okun | | | SPOTTED: JEFF BARTOS, two-time statewide GOP candidate in Pennsylvania and co-chair of MEHMET OZ’s Senate campaign, at a Wednesday fundraiser for Democratic gubernatorial nominee JOSH SHAPIRO in Philadelphia. You’ll recall that our Holly Otterbein scooped in Playbook on Wednesday that Bartos’ wife was co-hosting the Shapiro fundraiser, though Bartos wouldn’t say if he was supporting Shapiro or far-right Republican DOUG MASTRIANO. A person familiar with Bartos’ thinking tells Holly that “he was proud to support his wife and was there at her request to accompany her.”
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Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) announced this morning that she’d vote no, citing her “strong opposition” to one of the four bills. | Jeff Roberson/AP Photo | GOOD COP, BAD COP — House Democrats thought they’d finally broken through a stalemate of several months to land a deal on a package of policing bills Wednesday. They were slated for an initial vote this morning. Then the House unexpectedly went into recess and Speaker NANCY PELOSI delayed her morning presser by a couple of hours as a progressive revolt threatened to derail the bills. Progressive leaders PRAMILA JAYAPAL (D-Wash.) and ILHAN OMAR (D-Minn.) helped land the compromise this week, but not all of their caucus was on board: Rep. CORI BUSH (D-Mo.) announced this morning that she’d vote no, citing her “strong opposition” to one of the four bills. Dems could afford only four defections without Republican support. Now the party was scrambling to shore up support for what they hoped would be a boon to vulnerable moderates in November. Finally, Dems got their house in order — just barely. Voting kicked off around 12:30 p.m., and leadership lost only Bush, JAMAAL BOWMAN (N.Y.), ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (N.Y.) and RASHIDA TLAIB (Mich.). AYANNA PRESSLEY (Mass.) was convinced to vote “present,” as CNN’s Manu Raju reported. With the vote sitting at 216-215-1, House Minority Leader KEVIN McCARTHY requested to hold it open a few more minutes for another GOP member to arrive. But DIANA DeGETTE (D-Colo.) brought down the gavel, and the rule squeaked through. Final votes are expected later this afternoon. Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) slammed Rep. LIZ CHENEY (R-Wyo.) for missing the vote, saying she “clearly supports the Democrat war on police.” But Cheney was actually out due to a family health issue, per Nick Wu. Still, Dems aren’t out of the woods yet: Pressley plans to vote no on one of the four bills, from Rep. JOSH GOTTHEIMER (D-N.J.), per Scott Wong. ECA REFORM HITS THE MAGIC NUMBER — Sen. PAT TOOMEY (R-Pa.) is signing onto the bipartisan Senate overhaul of the Electoral Count Act to prevent election subversion, becoming the crucial 10th Republican co-sponsor, the Philly Inquirer’s Jonathan Tamari scooped . If all Democrats and independents sign on, that would be enough GOP support to clear a filibuster. “It is past time Congress act,” Toomey said in a statement. But the future still remains uncertain, as the Senate version is competing with a bill the House passed Wednesday. Sen. SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine) said there was a second new co-sponsor, per CBS’ Jack Turman III. WHETHER PERMITTING — Sen. SHELLEY MOORE CAPITO (R-W.Va.) and JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) have competing energy permitting reform bills, but Capito told reporters today that she’ll support Manchin’s bill, per Bloomberg’s Erik Wasson — a crucial vote of GOP support. CANNON FODDER — After an appeals court granted a partial stay requested by the Justice Department in the Mar-a-Lago case, Judge AILEEN CANNON today revised her ruling to allow investigators access to classified materials. More from Law&Crime Good Thursday afternoon.
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| BIG PICTURE HISTORY LESSON — What if this year isn’t a 2010 or a 2018, but a 1978 or 1982? Kyle Kondik at Sabato’s Crystal Ball has an interesting new analysis of two lesser-known years in which “one could argue that both of these elections could or should have been worse for the president’s party than they otherwise were.” Inflation was high, and the parties out of power made smaller gains than expected. But with margins tight this year, as they were in 1978, it doesn’t take much: The pendulum doesn’t always swing far, but even a red ripple would flip both chambers to the GOP. THE BIDEN QUESTION — When President JOE BIDEN heads to Florida next week, he’ll campaign with Democratic gubernatorial nominee Rep. CHARLIE CRIST — but Senate nominee Rep. VAL DEMINGS won’t be there, NBC’s Marc Caputo and Natasha Korecki report. “The divergent whereabouts of the two candidates says as much about their respective campaigns as it does about Democrats’ approach-or-avoid conflict with the president”: Crist faces a greater polling and cash disadvantage than Demings does. BATTLE FOR THE SENATE CASH DASH — Democratic Senate nominees raked in the dough on ActBlue in August, making for the best online fundraising month yet for many top candidates, Jessica Piper reports in a new analysis. The platform overall saw a 40% increase from July. Georgia Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK ($6.7 million), Wisconsin’s MANDELA BARNES ($6.3 million), Arizona Sen. MARK KELLY ($5.7 million) and Pennsylvania’s JOHN FETTERMAN ($5.5 million) were especially successful. But nobody pulled in more money than Demings, who raised $7.8 million. HOT POLLS — Colorado: Democratic Sen. MICHAEL BENNET leads JOE O’DEA 46% to 36%, per Emerson/The Hill. And Democratic Gov. JARED POLIS has a 53% to 36% advantage over HEIDI GANAHL. — Washington: Democratic Sen. PATTY MURRAY is ahead of TIFFANY SMILEY 50% to 37%, per Crosscut/Elway. Murray and Bennet’s leads indicate that the Senate GOP’s “stretch” targets remain a stretch. — Michigan: Democratic Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER is extending her lead over TUDOR DIXON to a 55%-39% rout, per the Detroit Free Press/EPIC-MRA. — Alaska: Forget ranked-choice: Democratic Rep. MARY PELTOLA is hitting 50% in the first round of voting, per Dittman Research. HOT ADS Via our colleague Steve Shepard: — Nevada: The abortion issue has hurt GOP Senate nominee ADAM LAXALT, but Laxalt’s allies at the conservative Club for Growth have a new ad designed to help him recover among women, touting his work as state AG — where he replaced now-Sen. CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO, his opponent this fall — to clear a backlog of rape kits. — Wisconsin: After weeks of withering GOP attacks on crime, Barnes is out with a response , featuring an endorsement from a retired Racine police sergeant. “Mandela Barnes doesn’t want to defund the police,” the retired officer, identified as “Rick,” says in the ad. “He’s very supportive of law enforcement.”
| | | | DON’T MISS - MILKEN INSTITUTE ASIA SUMMIT : Go inside the 9th annual Milken Institute Asia Summit, taking place from September 28-30, with a special edition of POLITICO’s Global Insider newsletter, featuring exclusive coverage and insights from this important gathering. Stay up to speed with daily updates from the summit, which brings together more than 1,200 of the world’s most influential leaders from business, government, finance, technology, and academia. Don’t miss out, subscribe today. | | | | | CONGRESS WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE — A hot mic caught South Korean President YOON SUK-YEOL blasting members of Congress who oppose additional global public health funding: “It would be so humiliating for Biden if these idiots don’t pass it in Congress,” he said, per WaPo’s Amy Wang. Agence France-Presse has a slightly different wording: “How could Biden not lose damn face if these fuckers do not pass it in Congress?” The incident is already kicking up a political firestorm in Seoul. 2023 DREAMING — Many House Dems expect their top leaders to leave their posts if Republicans flip the chamber, though the leaders themselves haven’t said they’ll do so, WSJ’s Natalie Andrews surveys the coming leadership battles, with HAKEEM JEFFRIES (N.Y.) and ADAM SCHIFF (Calif.) making moves to succeed Pelosi. Rep. JIMMY PANETTA (Calif.): “I respect Adam and I love Adam and I’d love to see him as a senator from California.” — The race to lead the House Homeland Security GOP has gone topsy-turvy in recent months, Olivia Beavers reports in Congress Minutes: Former contenders DAN BISHOP (N.C.), MICHAEL GUEST (Miss.) and SCOTT PERRY (Pa.) are no longer angling for the spot. Now the frontrunners are MARK GREEN (Tenn.) and DAN CRENSHAW (Texas), with CLAY HIGGINS (La.) also in the hunt. — Olivia also obtained a sneak peek at House Republicans’ Commitment to America agenda blueprint if they retake the chamber, which highlights everything from a parents’ bill of rights in education to hiring 200,000 more police officers. ONE TO WATCH — “First House office will hold union vote today,” by WaPo’s Tobi Raji: “Rep. ANDY LEVIN’s (D-Mich.) Capitol Hill and district offices will hold the vote today and the results will be tallied Monday.” THE ECONOMY THE UNEMPLOYMENT PICTURE — New jobless claims ticked up last week for the first time in six weeks, rising to 213,000, per Bloomberg. But the level is still low overall, indicating continued strength in the labor market even as the Fed raises interest rates. MORE POLITICS 2024 WATCH — Former VP MIKE PENCE will headline the Kaufmann Family Harvest Dinner in Wilton, Iowa, next week, Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser scooped. ICYMI — “Braun to Run for Governor,” by Indy Politics’ Abdul Hakim-Shabazz: “Senator MIKE BRAUN plans to run for Governor next year. … Braun has been contacting Republican chairman across the state, informing them of his plans. Braun reportedly will announce sometime after the election.” — Braun today, per Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine: “Where’d you hear that? I’ll make my mind up here down the road. … I’ll make a formal announcement somewhere probably late November, early December.” DONOR DIFFICULTIES — Los Angeles lawyer TOM GIRARDI has long been a notable Democratic donor, spending millions over the years across politicians like Biden, HILLARY CLINTON, BARACK OBAMA, California Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM and Sen. DIANNE FEINSTEIN. But he also faced major financial woes. “How did a deeply indebted lawyer obtain money to shower on candidates and campaigns?” the L.A. Times’ Harriet Ryan and Matt Hamilton explore. “No ready explanation has surfaced. But a Times review of contributions and law firm financial records raises questions about whether Girardi used clients’ funds to make the donations.” Most of the beneficiaries of Girardi’s largesse haven’t returned his contributions. TEFLON DON — The latest NYT/Siena poll earlier this month found DONALD TRUMP’s favorability rating holding steady at 44% — the same as in July and very similar to where his numbers have stood for years, NYT’s Ruth Igielnik reports.
| | | | A message from Facebook:   | | | ABORTION FALLOUT HEADS UP — Months after a 10-year-old rape victim drew national attention for traveling out of state to get an abortion, Ohio Capital Journal’s Marty Schladen reports that two more minors who became pregnant after being assaulted had to leave Ohio to terminate their pregnancies, according to new court affidavits. IN THE STATES — A judge temporarily blocked Indiana’s restrictive abortion law today, saying there’s a “reasonable likelihood” that a women’s right to make that decision is protected under the state constitution. More from the Indianapolis Star TRUMP CARDS THE FACEBOOK BAN — Meta’s NICK CLEGG told Semafor’s Steve Clemons today that when Trump’s Facebook ban comes up for review in January, the company “will talk to experts, weigh the risk of real world harm and act proportionally,” per Gina Chon. BEHIND THE TISH JAMES LAWSUIT — The tax scheme of gaming the “conservation easements” system that the New York AG accused the Trumps of committing has long been a target of lawmakers, Toby Eckert and Bernie Becker report. “But progress on putting a stop to it has been halting, at best. … The IRS and lawmakers from both parties have been trying to rein in the fraud.” MEDIAWATCH THE REPORTER AND THE PRESIDENT — Iranian President EBRAHIM RAISI refused to sit down for a planned interview with CNN’s CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR in NYC because she wasn’t wearing a headscarf, Amanpour said today. “I couldn’t agree to this unprecedented and unexpected condition. … And so we walked away.”
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don’t miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS SPOTTED: Boris Epshteyn meeting over breakfast at Bourbon Steak this morning with Aaron Cutler, head of Hogan Lovells’ lobbying practice. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the 21st annual Samuel J. Heyman Service to America Medals, hosted by the Partnership for Public Service at the Kennedy Center: second gentleman Doug Emhoff, Anthony Fauci, VA Secretary Denis McDonough, Matt Kaminski, Max Stier and Florence Pan, Raj Shah, Darren Walker, Michael Lewis, Alicia Menendez, Brian McKeon, Julie Su, Andrea Palm, Kiran Ahuja and Ronnie F. Heyman. — The National Independent Avenue Association held its first annual reception at The Anthem celebrating the enactment of the Save Our Stages legislation. Reps. “DJ Dizzy Dean” Phillips (D-Minn.) and Anthony Gonzalez (R-Ohio) guest DJ-ed. SPOTTED: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Rep. Brian Higgins (D-N.Y.), Dayna Frank, Audrey Fix Schaefer, Tobi Parks, Howie Kaplan, Hal Real, Steven Giaier, Charlie Chamness, Tyler Grimm, Jacob Smith, Joshua Bell, Alex Moore, Amanda Yanchury, Kaitlin Hooker, Meghan Pazik, Victoria Oms, Harvey Mason Jr., Todd Dupler, John Riccardi, Jerry Golden, Casey Higgins and Ed Pagano. — VIEWPAC held its 25th annual guest bartender reception Wednesday night, when male GOP lawmakers took turns making drinks for their female colleagues and attendees. SPOTTED: Sens. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) , Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), and Susan Collins (R-Maine), Reps. Young Kim (R-Calif.), Michelle Steel (R-Calif.), Kat Cammack (R-Fla.), Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa), Marianette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.), Julia Letlow (R-La.), Lisa McClain (R-Mich.), Michelle Fischbach (R-Minn.), Yvette Herrell (R-N.M.), Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.), Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), Claudia Tenney (R-N.Y.), Stephanie Bice (R-Okla.), Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), Diana Harshbarger (R-Tenn.), Beth Van Duyne (R-Texas) and Carol Miller (R-W.Va.). — UltraViolet celebrated its 10th anniversary with an award presentation and party hosted by Karen Finney at Culture House, where Women Donors Network, Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.), Monica Simpson, Shaunna Thomas and Nita Chaudhary were honored. SPOTTED: Brook Kelly-Green, Maureen Pelton, Michelle Ringuette, Sophie Vaughan, Rachael Hartford, Arisha Hatch, Gus Rossi, Wendy Wolf, Bridget Todd, Susan Gibbs, Kristina Wilfore, Jenny Lawson, Carlissia Graham, Matt Butler and Donna Hall. MEDIA MOVES — CNN is shuffling its lineups temporarily for a month leading up to the midterms, Oliver Darcy reports: Jake Tapper will move to anchor the 9 p.m. hour starting Oct. 10. Alisyn Camerota and Laura Coates will anchor 10 p.m. to midnight. John Berman and Brianna Keilar will fill in at 4 p.m. And Wolf Blitzer will expand his anchoring, taking on 5 p.m. to 7 p.m. … Dylan Wells will be a campaign reporter at WaPo. She previously has covered Congress and campaigns at USA Today. Announcement FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Christina Hale is now associate administrator for the Office of Communications and Public Liaison at the SBA. She most recently was head of comms for the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, and was the Democratic nominee for Indiana’s 5th Congressional District in 2020.. NSC ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Elizabeth Kozey is now deputy senior director for response in the resilience and response directorate at the NSC. She most recently supported the Office of Counterterrorism and Emerging Threats at DHS as a senior policy adviser. TRANSITION — Matt Boyse is now an adjunct lecturer at Johns Hopkins University's Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies and George Washington University. He most recently was deputy assistant secretary with the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs at the State Department. Correction: Wednesday’s Playbook PM misspelled Rebecca Angelson’s name.
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