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Presented by Meta: POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the afternoon in Washington. | | | | |  | | By Eli Okun | | | TRUSS THE PROCESS — British PM LIZ TRUSS announced today she will soon resign after roughly 50 days in office, the denouement of a tumultuous tenure in which her aggressive tax-cut plan plunged the country into economic turmoil. Truss will be the shortest-tenured British leader in history. She said her replacement will be selected within a week. Latest updates from our colleagues in London NOTABLE QUOTABLE — As President JOE BIDEN headed to Pennsylvania this morning, he had a brief exchange with the press on abortion. Reporter: “Should there be any restrictions on abortion at all?” Biden: “Yes, there should be.” Reporter: “What should they be?” Biden: “Roe v. Wade! Read it, man. You’ll get educated.” The president also took issue with a reporter who said not many Democratic candidates have campaigned with him: “That’s not true. There’ve been 15. Count!” JUST POSTED — “Trump taps firm to handle his Jan. 6 committee subpoena,” by Nick Wu, Meridith McGraw and Kyle Cheney: “The firm, The Dhillon Law Group, already represents multiple witnesses who have appeared before the committee.”
|  Kari Lake wants to require voter ID for all ballots and eliminate any software from ballot counting over hacking concerns. | Matt York, File/AP Photo | THE ELECTIONS ELECTION — The Grand Canyon State is one of November’s most consequential battlegrounds for American democracy: Close elections are expected to be the norm for the foreseeable future, and the three top Republicans running to lead the state have all falsely alleged fraud in the 2020 election. If KARI LAKE, MARK FINCHEM and ABE HAMADEH win (for governor, secretary of state and AG, respectively), they could make massive changes to the state’s voting laws and elections, AP’s Jonathan Cooper and Bob Christie report from Phoenix. Together, they’d have virtually unlimited power over elections. All three have said they wouldn’t have certified Biden’s legitimate 2020 win. What if 2024’s margin is similarly razor-thin? “Election experts say any of the three, if elected, could try to tilt the 2024 election toward [DONALD] TRUMP if he runs again for president,” the AP writes. “That could happen through a refusal to certify an election he loses or long before that through pre-emptive changes to the election process. … Any controversy over certification could create a pretext for Arizona’s electoral votes to be challenged when Congress meets to count them in early 2025.” Lake, Finchem and Hamadeh have squeezed out some rhetorical wiggle room on certifying future elections compared to 2020, but other aspects of Arizona’s election system are at stake, too: The procedures manual could get an overhaul; Finchem could change voter registration rules or stop forcing local officials to certify results. And that’s to say nothing of any new laws from the state legislature, which is currently Republican-controlled. The Arizona Republic’s Stacey Barchenger is also focused on what Lake or Democrat KATIE HOBBS could do to the state’s elections if either wins. Lake wants to require voter ID for all ballots, eliminate any software from ballot counting over hacking concerns, and “stop printing ballots at polling locations.” She has refused to commit to accepting the results in November and has refused to say whether she would, if elected, put an end to early voting. Hobbs, who currently oversees elections as secretary of state, takes a very different approach: She wants to expand early voting and registration, automatically allow felons who have served their time to get voting rights restored, and bolster funding for election officials. Neither candidate has detailed how they’d pay for some of their costliest voting proposals. “One expert summarized it this way,” Barchenger writes. “Lake’s plan is built on the national rhetoric targeting elections, while Hobbs’ plan is rooted in her experience as the state’s elections chief for the last four years.” Good Thursday afternoon.
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| THE BIG PICTURE RED WAVE — Republicans have overtaken Democrats on FiveThirtyEight’s aggregation of the generic congressional ballot for the first time since early August. Since the start of the week, Democrats’ odds of holding the Senate have fallen from 66% to 59% , and Republicans’ odds of flipping the House have jumped from 71% to 79% . — @NateSilver538 : “If this was the stock market, you’d say ‘we’re officially into bear market territory’ (for Democrats).” POLL POSITION — A new economics-focused poll from CNBC highlights why Democrats still have a shot in November — and why Republicans have the edge nonetheless. This quarter’s All-America Economic Survey finds Biden’s approval rating leaping 10 points since July to 46%, Steve Liesman reports . But Republicans are up 48% to 46% on the generic ballot, and voters clearly trust the GOP more on economic issues: The party has double-digit advantages on inflation, taxes, the deficit and jobs. “CNBC’s Democratic and Republican pollsters agree the economic numbers look similar to 2014.” BEYOND ABORTION — A new advocacy group called Americans for Contraception is going up with ads across eight states warning young voters that Republicans could take away condoms, IUDs and birth control pills, USA Today’s Maureen Groppe reports . Running on YouTube, Netflix and Hulu and elsewhere, the ads from LIZ JAFF’s group are running through next month (not focused entirely on the election) in a more than $1 million buy. OPPOSITE DAY — When Republicans claimed that Google’s spam filters were suppressing their campaign emails, the company offered to create a pilot program to address their concerns — and Democrats blasted Google for buckling. But now … the DNC has signed up for the program nonetheless, WaPo’s Cristiano Lima reports . “The result is that Gmail users could soon see a flood of new messages from DNC-backed candidates and political committees.” And on the flip side: The RNC, despite agitating for change, has not joined the program, as The Verge’s Makena Kelly reported last week . BATTLE FOR THE SENATE SENSITIVE SUBJECT — Georgia Republican HERSCHEL WALKER has often responded to stories of scandal in his personal life by talking about his struggle with dissociative identity disorder. Walker says he’s now “overcome” the illness and doesn’t need treatment anymore. But NYT’s Sheryl Gay Stolberg talks to experts who say that’s not quite how it works: “Like other mental illnesses, dissociative identity disorder cannot be cured in the classic sense. Psychiatrists say that while patients can learn to manage this disorder — and even live symptom-free for extended periods — the symptoms can recur, often triggered by stress.” CASH DASH — Pennsylvania Democrat JOHN FETTERMAN will head to the D.C. area for a fundraiser Friday, per the Philly Inquirer’s Jonathan Tamari . HOT POLLS — Nevada: The marquee races are going down to the wire: CBS News/YouGov have Republican ADAM LAXALT leading Sen. CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO 49% to 48%, and Democratic Gov. STEVE SISOLAK tied with JOE LOMBARDO at 48%. HOT ADS
With help from Steve Shepard — Georgia: “For you, Herschel Walker wants to ban abortion,” begins Democratic Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK’s latest ad, which pivots from the GOP nominee’s opposition to abortion rights to his allegedly paying for “an abortion for this then-girlfriend.” The spot concludes with footage from Walker’s recent NBC sit-down, acknowledging that the check his ex-girlfriend provided is his. — Minnesota: GOP gubernatorial nominee SCOTT JENSEN’s latest ad dramatizes a young woman being carjacked . The only words spoken during the ad are at the end: “There were 779 carjackings last year. Before [Democratic Gov.] TIM WALZ, we didn’t worry about this.” — South Carolina: An ad for JOE CUNNINGHAM’s Democratic gubernatorial bid features a woman talking about getting an abortion soon after Roe when she was raped as a 12-year-old, The 19th’s Grace Panetta scooped . It’s part of a broader trend of Democratic ads “that center on deeply personal, sometimes painful, abortion stories from patients and providers.”
| | | | NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID . | | | | | JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH RUNNING LOW — The government funding bill coming in December may be the Justice Department’s last chance to get the influx of money it says it needs to prosecute Jan. 6 rioters, NBC’s Sahil Kapur and Ryan Reilly report , lest Republicans potentially take over the House and turn off the funding spigot — putting the department’s massive criminal investigation into jeopardy. “[T]he work is far from over and the department needs more resources to move full-speed ahead.” But that message hasn’t broken through on the Hill: “[S]enior lawmakers said they were not aware that the future of the Jan. 6 investigation could depend on the next budget round.” THE WHITE HOUSE CLICKER — NYT’s Aatish Bhatia, Francesca Paris and Margot Sanger-Katz have an interesting series of graphics comparing Biden’s 2022 budget wish list to the policies that actually got through Congress. Among the notable takeaways: “More new programs were achieved with Republicans than without them. … Most of the policy proposals focused on equity were cut substantially or entirely. … Biden wanted to give a lot of money directly to people and social services, but the legislation mostly funds corporations and building projects.” CONGRESS 2023 DREAMING — Rep. JIM BANKS (R-Ind.), in line for a big role in a potential House GOP majority, said this morning that the party should use the debt limit as a point of leverage to extract concessions next year, per CBS’ Robert Costa . He also said impeaching DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS and Biden could be on the table. — The oil and gas industry is revving up for a Republican takeover of the House, NYT’s Eric Lipton previews . The American Gas Association is particularly focused on stepping up Energy Department oversight to damage a program that incentivizes people to switch from gas-powered furnaces and stoves to electric. “There is almost glee in their voices when they discuss the possibility of helping draft questions for Biden administration officials, like Interior Secretary DEB HAALAND.”
| | | | A message from Meta:   | | | MORE POLITICS AFTERNOON READ — FT’s Joshua Chaffin is out with a big profile of Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS, who “has harnessed a combination of intellect and calculated hostility — to outsiders, elites, the media — to become the man of the hour for America’s rightwing populist movement.” Though Chaffin writes that DeSantis has his personal drawbacks as a competitor to Trump (“On the stump, DeSantis sometimes reads like EVE HARRINGTON to Trump’s MARGO CHANNING , an alluring understudy lacking the crackling presence of a star”), he could marry his deep ambition with rigorous political discipline to harness Trumpism for his own ends. 2024 WATCH — The Republican Jewish Coalition’s leadership meeting will feature a dozen top Republican politicians in Las Vegas right after the midterms, “the first major cattle call of possible Republican presidential contenders,” Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser scooped . On the list: DeSantis, MIKE PENCE, MIKE POMPEO, NIKKI HALEY, Sens. TOM COTTON (Ark.), TED CRUZ (Texas), BILL HAGERTY (Tenn.), RICK SCOTT (Fla.) and TIM SCOTT (S.C.), Maryland Gov. LARRY HOGAN, New Hampshire Gov. CHRIS SUNUNU and CHRIS CHRISTIE. ANNALS OF INFLUENCE — “Drugmakers Look to Limit Medicare’s New Power to Negotiate Lower Drug Prices,” by WSJ’s Jared Hopkins: “Drugmakers are seeking to ease the [Inflation Reduction Act’s] impact as regulators begin to work on the details of implementing the provisions … Yet the lobbying comes without some key lawmakers in the industry’s corner, and at a moment when one of its biggest trade groups, the Biotechnology Innovation Organization, must find a new leader.” — As the Chinese surveillance behemoth Hikvision seeks to avoid U.S. sanctions under the Global Magnitsky Act, the company is paying lobbyist DREW WILLISON’s roughly $525,000 to sway the Biden administration, IPVM’s Charles Rollet reports . A former HARRY REID chief of staff, Willison writes in a newly disclosed letter about his plan to lobby career officials at various departments rather than political appointees, who are “far more scared on China issues.” PARLER GAMES — “Parler was jubilant about Kanye West buying it. Then the problems started,” by Meridith McGraw, Jordain Carney and Rebecca Kern: “[T]he site emailed hundreds of VIP members to excitedly share the news. … Parler neglected to blind-CC email addresses and inadvertently revealed the contact information of at least 10 lawmakers and many more conservative stars. The other problem: some of those ‘VIPs’ had no clue why they were being labeled as such, confessing that they had little to no association with the controversial app, let alone special status there.” POLICY CORNER MUCK READ — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President JAMES BULLARD spoke at a private Citigroup forum last week in Washington, without reporters invited, NYT’s Jeanna Smialek reports . While Bullard wasn’t paid, “he appeared behind closed doors and in front of Wall Street investors at a critical juncture for markets, when every comment a central banker makes has the potential to move stocks and bonds.” Says one former Fed president, “The optics are terrible.”
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don’t miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY . | | | | | THE ECONOMY THE UNEMPLOYMENT PICTURE — New jobless claims last week dropped to 214,000, per new Labor Department stats, indicating that the labor market is still running pretty hot despite the Fed’s efforts to raise interest rates. More from the WSJ ON THE HOME FRONT — Home sales in the U.S. dropped 1.5% in September and were down nearly 24% year over year, per new National Association of Realtors data out today. That marks the eighth consecutive month of decline, the longest such stretch since 2007. More from CNN WAR IN UKRAINE THE VIEW FROM WASHINGTON — U.S. intelligence assessments say the next six weeks offer a window for Ukrainian forces to push forward in the south and northeast before winter grinds things to a halt, NYT’s Julian Barnes reports . Kherson could even be within reach. But the gains would be hard and gradual, not like last month’s massive counteroffensive. AMERICA AND THE WORLD WHISKEY TANGO FOXTROT — “Afghan couple accuse U.S. Marine of abducting their baby,” by AP’s Juliet Linderman, Claire Galofaro and Martha Mendoza: “Letters, emails and documents submitted in federal filings show that he used his status in the U.S. Armed Forces, appealed to high-ranking Trump administration officials and turned to small-town courts to adopt the baby, unbeknownst to the Afghan couple raising her 7,000 miles away. … The ordeal has drawn in the U.S. departments of Defense, Justice and State.” FOR YOUR RADAR — “A US citizen has admitted responsibility for the death of teenage motorcyclist HARRY DUNN in a case that caused a diplomatic row between the US and British governments,” the BBC reports . “ANNE SACOOLAS, 45, pleaded guilty at the Old Bailey, via videolink, to causing his death by careless driving.“ PLAYBOOKERS OUT AND ABOUT — The White House Historical Association hosted a dinner and discussion Wednesday night in NYC headlined by Henry Kissinger, with moderator Peggy Noonan. Kissinger spoke about his first visit to the White House, when President John F. Kennedy called him in to discuss a book he’d written, and opined on how President Joe Biden should try to deescalate rhetoric with Chinese President Xi Jinping. SPOTTED: Ed Cox and Patricia Nixon Cox, Stewart McLaurin, Martin Indyk, Gahl Hodges Burt, Ronald and Jo Carole Lauder, Kevin Chaffee, Eric Brinker, Kenneth Juster and Alyssa Bliss, Jimmy and Frances Spradley, Brenda Johnson, Wilbur and Hilary Ross, Shari Redstone, Ashley Dabbiere, Thomas D’Agostino and Danielle Rollins. Correction: The headline of Wednesday’s Playbook PM misstated the number of days until the election. There were 20 days left.
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