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Presented by Meta: POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the afternoon in Washington. | | | | |  | | By Eli Okun | | | A MATTER OF TIME — STEVE BANNON was sentenced today to four months behind bars for refusing to comply with the House Jan. 6 committee’s subpoena. Though the former DONALD TRUMP adviser will remain free pending appeal, he’d become the first person to go to jail for contempt of Congress in more than 50 years if the ruling holds. Prosecutors had asked for six months; defense attorneys had suggested no jail time. Trump-appointed District Court Judge CARL NICHOLS also ordered Bannon to pay a $6,500 fine. More from Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein “We’ll have a very vigorous appeals process,” Bannon promised reporters afterward. “On Nov. 8, [we’re] gonna have judgment on the illegitimate Biden regime.”
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“They will crash the economy next year by threatening the full faith and credit of the United States," President Joe Biden warned about Republicans. | J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo | RAISING THE ROOF — Democrats have struggled all year to find an economic message that clicks with voters amid sky-high inflation. They’ve surged in the polls only when economic issues take a back seat to others. Cue President JOE BIDEN taking to the lectern this morning and placing Republicans’ plans for a 2023 debt-ceiling standoff front and center in his midterms economic pitch. “They will crash the economy next year by threatening the full faith and credit of the United States — for the first time in our history putting the United States in default — unless we yield to their demand to cut Social Security and Medicare,” Biden warned. “Let me be really clear: I will not yield. I will not cut Social Security. I will not cut Medicare, no matter how hard they work at it.” It was a sharp rejoinder to recent chatter from some House Republicans that if they’re in the majority, they’ll use the fight to raise the debt ceiling next year as a point of leverage to extract concessions from Dems. Some are explicitly eyeing cutting or reforming entitlements to rein in spending — an enduring conservative policy goal that always plays poorly with the electorate. The prospect has crept into public view in recent days as the U.S. looks askance at the U.K.’s recent economic meltdown. A debt ceiling crisis is a threat that could trigger a similar calamity here, Semafor’s Joseph Zeballos-Roig reports . Some on the left are calling for Congress to effectively eliminate the ceiling in the lame duck this year and take that prospect off the table — including prominent House Dems like BRENDAN BOYLE (Pa.) and HAKEEM JEFFRIES (N.Y.), per Punchbowl’s John Bresnahan . Read their letter But, but, but: The odds in the Senate — where a party-line debt-ceiling hike would involve complex and time-consuming parliamentary maneuverings — seem remote: “Two Democratic aides that have spoken to Semafor say it is unlikely the party will act,” writes Zeballos-Roig. And Biden seemed taken aback when asked about abolishing the debt limit today: “No,” he told reporters. “That’d be irresponsible.” DOCUMENT DUMP — The records the FBI seized from Trump’s Mar-a-Lago included “highly sensitive intelligence” on Iran’s missile program and China with potentially serious ramifications for national security, WaPo’s Devlin Barrett scooped . Though the materials often don’t include sources’ specific names, they could still be very valuable to adversaries. “If shared with others … such information could expose intelligence-gathering methods that the United States wants to keep hidden from the world.” DEAR KEVIN — Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL put out a statement today pushing the Biden administration and U.S. allies to “be quicker and more proactive” in helping Ukraine, while also pledging that a Senate GOP majority would focus on “ensuring timely delivery of needed weapons and greater allied assistance” to the embattled nation. It was an implicit break with House Minority Leader KEVIN McCARTHY’s recent comments casting doubt on the GOP’s commitment to Ukraine funding. Happy Friday afternoon. Have any early contenders for naming the next Washington debt showdown? “Fiscal cliff” feels so passé. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com . FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Rep. LIZ CHENEY (R-Wyo.) will be on NBC’s “Meet the Press” live on Sunday, talking midterms, Jan. 6 and the future of the GOP.
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| BIG PICTURE GEORGIA ON MY MIND — The big question in Georgia’s runoffs two years ago was whether Trump’s lies about election fraud would depress GOP turnout. Now, Republicans in the state are worrying about it once again, AP’s Lisa Mascaro reports from Marietta. Former Sen. KELLY LOEFFLER, who thinks that’s why she lost, is among the volunteers now out scouring the streets to rustle up GOP votes. Loeffler’s investments in get-out-the-vote efforts position her as something of a conservative answer to STACEY ABRAMS. But it’s a difficult balancing act for Republicans, who have to manage a disparate coalition of potential supporters. CLICKER — The most negative Senate race this year, as measured by the tone of ads, is … Alaska. That’s one of the surprising findings in this roundup from WSJ’s John McCormick of the $7.5 billion in ad spending so far this cycle. BATTLE FOR THE SENATE RED WAVE — After recent Republican gains, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver writes that he now considers control of the Senate to be a toss-up (even though Dems still have a slight edge in his model). Instead of a massive change in favor of the GOP, “this is more a case of now having more evidence to confirm that the Democrats’ summer polling surge wasn’t sustainable.” ON THE FRINGE — Arizona Republican BLAKE MASTERS’ campaign has had on its payroll a top leader of a far-right Christian nationalist group, Jewish Insider’s Matthew Kassel reports . CJ TRAPEUR has gotten more than $5,000 from Masters for consulting and “campaign staff salary fees,” while he’s also been COO of American Virtue, which has “rejected mounting accusations of white nationalism and other forms of extremism.” MIA — Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. JOHN FETTERMAN has missed 11 of 13 meetings for the Pennsylvania Military Community Enhancement Commission and Local Government Advisory Committee that he sits on, The Washington Free Beacon’s Chuck Ross reports . On some of those days, the Democrat instead was giving media interviews, took vacation or had a blank public schedule. His campaign said senior staff attended and represented him instead. BATTLE FOR THE STATES SIGN OF THE TIMES — House Majority PAC is triaging seats that might be out of reach for Dems, Ally Mutnick reports : It’s apparently pulling TV ad spending from CHRISTY SMITH in California and KIRSTEN ENGEL in Arizona, and focusing Detroit money on Rep. ELISSA SLOTKIN rather than CARL MARLINGA. DOWN BALLOT — Much ink has been spilled about Republicans’ advance in three House races in the former Democratic stronghold of South Texas. But NYT’s Michelle Cottle went to McAllen and found in a reported op-ed that the GOP is drilling much deeper than that: The party is now seriously making a play for all kinds of local races (even when they’re big underdogs), building a Republican infrastructure and ground game for the future. But, but, but: Most of Texas’ Latinos don’t live along the border — half are in and around the state’s major urban centers, and they’re still a very Democratic bloc. That poses an ongoing challenge for Republicans in the state, The Texas Tribune’s Zach Despart and Patrick Svitek report from Fort Worth. EMPIRE STATE OF MIND — To take down New York Gov. KATHY HOCHUL, Republican Rep. LEE ZELDIN is spending a lot of time campaigning on crime in the outer boroughs of NYC, WSJ’s Jimmy Vielkind reports . It’s an unusual strategy for a Republican running statewide, but with major crimes significantly up this year in NYC, Zeldin is hoping to cross the 30% threshold. HOT POLLS — New Hampshire: An internal poll from Republican Senate nominee DON BOLDUC and Fabrizio Lee has him almost catching Sen. MAGGIE HASSAN: She leads just 49% to 47%. Republican Gov. CHRIS SUNUNU is up 57% to 40% over TOM SHERMAN. — Michigan: Mitchell Research has the governor’s race tightening : Democratic incumbent GRETCHEN WHITMER leads TUDOR DIXON just 49% to 47%. — Pennsylvania: Fetterman leads MEHMET OZ for Senate 46% to 43%, per Echelon . In the governor’s race, Democrat JOSH SHAPIRO is up 50% to 38% on DOUG MASTRIANO. HOT ADS
Via Steve Shepard — Ohio: Cut loose by his national party, GOP congressional nominee J.R. MAJEWSKI’s latest ad features him standing on the banks of the Maumee River while he calls Democratic Rep. MARCY KAPTUR “the poster child for term limits.” As he speaks, text bubbles pop up across the screen; the first is: “FACT: DID NOT STORM THE CAPITOL.” — Colorado: BRITTANY PETTERSEN, the Democratic nominee for a blue-leaning open House seat, is up with a new ad featuring her mother, who became addicted to opioids after an injury and had “20 fentanyl overdoses in one year.”
| | | | NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID . | | | | | THE WHITE HOUSE FIRST LADY FILES — Nobody will have a greater influence over whether Biden runs for another term than first lady JILL BIDEN, NBC’s Peter Nicholas, Carol Lee and Mike Memoli report . While she hasn’t said so explicitly, they find that she’s pretty much all in on another campaign, having indicated as much to Democrats in private. “He understands government better than anybody else,” Jill Biden tells NBC. “She said she’s not deterred by another vitriolic campaign or the prospect of Republican-led investigations into her family.” And she insists HUNTER BIDEN is innocent. The step back: Jill Biden is transforming the role of the first lady, using “unparalleled influence across the White House in a manner that defies easy comparison.” WHAT BIDEN IS TOUTING — The president today celebrated news of a $1.4 trillion plummet in the federal budget deficit for the fiscal year that ended in September. Burgeoning tax revenue and the end of pandemic aid programs aided that decrease. It was “the largest one-year drop in American history,” Biden said, taking care to blast Republicans for raising the deficit in the Trump era, thanks in part to massive tax cuts. What Biden isn’t touting: Despite the year-over-year numbers, the deficit actually leapt 562% month over month on the back of Biden’s student loan relief move. Details from the AP TOO LITTLE TOO LATE? — After keeping mostly mum amid a barrage of legal challenges, Biden is now finally starting to make his student debt relief plan a focal point on the campaign trail, Bloomberg’s Akayla Gardner reports . That includes an event in Delaware later today. But some Democrats worry that it’s too late in the game to really make a difference for candidates now. BEYOND THE BELTWAY SO MUCH FOR THAT — The first case of the 19 controversial voter fraud arrests made by Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS’ administration was tossed out this morning. The judge found that the statewide prosecutor didn’t have jurisdiction. More from the Miami Herald
| | | | A message from Meta:   | | | CONGRESS HEATING UP ON THE RIGHT — The House GOP whip race between Reps. JIM BANKS (Ind.) and TOM EMMER (Minn.) next year is dividing Trump world, The Daily Beast’s Jake Lahut and Zachary Petrizzo report . Emmer could be rewarded for flipping the chamber as NRCC chair. But a new Banks-allied PAC “could be critical in neutralizing Emmer’s argument that he’s a cash cow.” DONALD TRUMP JR. feels positively toward Banks. And his ace in the hole might be a controversial NRCC fundraising email that touted a poll showing DeSantis beating Trump, which raised eyebrows at Trump’s Save America PAC. But both Banks and Emmer have some history of Trump disloyalty. And don’t count out Rep. DREW FERGUSON (Ga.), either. — @DonaldJTrumpJr responds : “Why did Tom Emmer tell his consultants to run to the leftwing Daily Beast to trash Jim Banks, TUCKER CARLSON and Tucker’s family? Does he really think that’s a winning strategy for a Republican House leadership race? Pathetic!” KEEPING TABS — Some vulnerable House Democrats are taking note of which colleagues haven’t ponied up for the DCCC this cycle, Punchbowl’s Max Cohen and Heather Caygle report . “Some lawmakers have even discussed not supporting colleagues in leadership or committee races later this year if they didn’t contribute to the campaign arm.” POLICY CORNER OPIOID FILES — The White House today is rolling out a plan across the administration to help pregnant women get access to medications to treat drug addiction, NYT’s Emily Baumgaertner reports . Using the courts, the VA and other federal agencies, officials will seek to make buprenorphine and methadone more available to pregnant women, a group that sometimes has difficulty getting them. “But the administration’s blueprint is vague on funding, and some policy analysts worry that it falls short on the mechanisms and detail needed to push agencies and health institutions to move faster.” WAR IN UKRAINE WHAT’S THE HOLD-UP — Though the U.S. said two months ago it planned to provide the Vampire counter-drone weapons system to Ukraine, the Pentagon still hasn’t even issued a contract for it, WSJ’s Brett Forrest reports . The issue is all the more pressing as Russia now pulverizes Ukraine with drones. The Pentagon simply says that they expect the contract to come soon. AGAINST THE GRAIN — “After Ukraine, Biden administration turns to Musk’s satellite internet for Iran,” by CNN’s Natasha Bertrand and Alex Marquardt: “The White House sees Starlink’s compact, easy-to-use technology as a potential solution to the Iranian regime’s aggressive efforts to restrict activists’ internet access and communications.” ON THE HORN — Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN spoke with Russian counterpart SERGEI SHOIGU today, talking about keeping lines of communication open, per the Pentagon.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don’t miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY . | | | | | TRUMP CARDS EYES ON THE SKIES — Trump’s Boeing 757 has returned to Florida after undergoing repairs in Louisiana, CNN’s Kate Bennett scooped , noting that “it may be getting prepped to assume its former life as Trump’s biggest campaign prop.” PLAYBOOKERS SPOTTED this morning on an American Airlines flight from Palm Beach to D.C.: Heritage Foundation president Kevin Roberts in first class; Manhattan Institute president Reihan Salam in coach. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the 2022 Halcyon House Awards, where D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser, Tom Davidson and Metta World Peace were honored Thursday: Kate Goodall, Martha Metz, Patrice King Brickman, Kerone Vatel, Karyn Smith, Micky Pant, Kevin Lavin, Sachiko Kuno, Matthew Kelly, Petrocelli Brooks, Nichole Francis Reynolds and Sherman Greer. — A reception for supporters of Heart’s Delight Wine Tasting and Auction on Thursday night benefited the American Heart Association, with host Nick Calio. SPOTTED: John Bozzella, Tori Emerson Barnes, Jeff Shockey, Christine Burgeson, Jonathan Kott, Ronda Bentz and Heidi Arnold. — The U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Elizabeth Baker Keffer hosted a dinner at Cafe Milano on Thursday night. SPOTTED: Ashlee Rich Stephenson, Terri Fariello, Sena Fitzmaurice, Debbi Jarvis, Libby Coffin, Maria Pica Karp, Kara Adame and Karen Valanzano. TRANSITION — Johnny Craig is now VP of business development at Prompt.io. He most recently was a senior account executive at Bloomberg Industry Group, and is a Helm Labs and Crowdskout alum.
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