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Presented by The American Petroleum Institute (API): POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the afternoon in Washington. | | | | |  | | By Garrett Ross | | | |  Election Day is nigh. | Andrew Harnik/AP Photo | FYI — @elonmusk tweets at 10:22 a.m. : “To independent-minded voters: Shared power curbs the worst excesses of both parties, therefore I recommend voting for a Republican Congress, given that the Presidency is Democratic.” He has now pinned this tweet to the top of his profile. WEATHER REPORT — “Will Rain Affect Turnout Tomorrow? The Answer Is Cloudy,” by NYT’s Eve Washington and John Keefe: “Election Day is shaping up to be mild and dry across much of the United States except in the West, where heavy rain and snow are likely in California, Nevada and Utah. By the late afternoon, the first wave of moisture from Subtropical Storm Nicole should reach Florida.” — “A budding hurricane, snow and record heat could impact voters on Tuesday,” by CNN’s Jennifer Gray THE FINAL COUNTDOWN — We’ve got one last POLITICO/Morning Consult to look at before Election Day arrives — and the results bode ill for Democrats, our colleague Brittany Gibson writes . The breakdown:
- Biden’s approval rating remains low: 55% of registered voters said they disapprove of the job President JOE BIDEN is doing, and just 42% said they approve.
- Support for congressional Dems is an outlier: Unlike many polling averages , Democrats have a lead in the generic congressional ballot, with a five-point edge over Republicans, 48% to 43%.
On the issues:
- It’s the economy, stupid: Pocketbook issues continue to reign supreme for voters, with 78% saying both the economy and inflation will play a “major role” in how they cast their ballots.
- The other motivators: By contrast, 61% of voters said crime would play a major role in their voting decisions this year, and 57% said the same about abortion access.
The poll also asked voters to weigh in on the recent trend of political violence, defined as an act of violence to achieve a political end. “A full 80 percent of Americans said they were concerned about political violence in the U.S., a fear that is shared across gender, age, race and political ideologies,” Brittany writes. When you look at the figures by party, 88% of Democrats reported concerns about political violence, and Republicans and independents each shared the concern at 76%. For the record: The poll of 2,005 voters was conducted from Nov. 4 to Nov. 5 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. INTERESTING NEW WSJ POLL — “GOP Gaining Support Among Black and Latino Voters, WSJ Poll Finds,” by Joshua Jamerson in Atlanta and Aaron Zitner in Washington: “About 17% of Black voters said they would pick a Republican candidate for Congress over a Democrat in Journal polls both in late October and in August. That is a substantially larger share than the 8% of Black voters who voted for former President DONALD TRUMP in 2020 and the 8% who backed GOP candidates in 2018 House races, as recorded by AP VoteCast, a large survey of voters who participated in those elections. “Among Latino voters, Democrats held a lead of 5 percentage points over Republicans in the choice of a congressional candidate in the Journal’s October survey, a narrower advantage than the Democrats’ 11-point lead in August.” Yes, overinterpreting high-MoE crosstabs can be a risky game. This one surveyed “180 Black voters, for which the margin of error was plus or minus 7.3 percentage points. The pollster interviewed additional Latino voters to create a sample of 400 respondents, for which the margin of error was plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.” But Biden pollster JOHN ANZALONE validates the Journal’s take: “I think that this could be a paradigm-shift election, where Republicans are not only making inroads with the Latino vote, but they’re now making inroads with the African-American vote.” Good Monday afternoon. Send me your pictures of the Election Day Blood Moon tomorrow morning: gross@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307.
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| BIG PICTURE THE MAIL-IN MESS — “Republicans sue to disqualify thousands of mail ballots in swing states,” by WaPo’s Amy Gardner and Emma Brown Here’s what it looks like:
- “In Pennsylvania, the state Supreme Court has agreed with the Republican National Committee that election officials should not count ballots on which the voter neglected to put a date on the outer envelope — even in cases when the ballots arrive before Election Day. Thousands of ballots have been set aside as a result, enough to swing a close race.”
- “In Michigan, KRISTINA KARAMO, the Republican nominee for secretary of state, sued the top election official in Detroit last month, seeking to toss absentee ballots not cast in person with an ID, even though that runs contrary to state requirements. When asked in a recent court hearing, Karamo’s lawyer declined to say why the suit targets Detroit, a heavily Democratic, majority-Black city, and not the entire state.”
- “And in Wisconsin, Republicans won a court ruling that will prevent some mail ballots from being counted when the required witness address is not complete.”
TEMPERATURE TAKING — “U.S. voters fret about democracy, polarization before election,” by AP’s Gary Fields, Gillian Flaccus and Michael Rubinkam … “Black voters in Florida express fear, confusion as DeSantis election laws kick in,” by WaPo’s Lori Rozsa in Hobe Sound, Fla. NO SURPRISE HERE — “Trump speeches use dozens of lies, exaggerations to draw contrast with Biden,” by WaPo’s Isaac Arnsdorf: “His speech Thursday at a rally in Sioux City, Iowa, contained at least 58 false or misleading statements, and he added at least another 24 distinct falsehoods at a Saturday speech in Latrobe, Pa., according to a Washington Post analysis.” NEW ONE FOR THE LEXICON — “In Affluent Greenwich, It’s Republicans vs. ‘Trumplicans,’” by NYT’s Dan Barry: “Here in Greenwich, long a bastion of moderate Republicans … the takeover has people asking: Who are these Greenwich Republicans? And did they lock the town’s traditional Republican leaders in the hold of some yacht in Greenwich Harbor? “The answer: They are a small, well-organized group that essentially applied the ‘precinct strategy’ espoused by the former Trump strategist STEPHEN K. BANNON , which calls for toppling local political establishments to clear the way for like-minded Republican candidates who will one day guide the country’s future.” UNDER THE INFLUENCE — “Russia's Prigozhin admits interfering in U.S. elections,” by Reuters: “Russian businessman YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN said on Monday he had interfered in U.S. elections and would continue doing so in future, the first such admission from a figure who has been formally implicated by Washington in efforts to influence American politics.” BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE RUST BELT READ — “In Ohio, two millennial women face off in a battleground House race,” by WaPo’s Dylan Wells in Akron, Ohio: “The race in Ohio’s newly drawn 13th Congressional District, one of the country’s most competitive U.S. House contests, features two millennial women [Democrat EMILIA SYKES and Republican MADISON GESIOTTO GILBERT ] pitching starkly contrasting ideas for the future and hailing from very different backgrounds. While the campaign has featured disagreements over abortion, crime, the economy and other issues that have been in the spotlight across the country, the candidates stand out from those in dozens of other House battlegrounds. No matter who wins, the outcome will usher in a shift from Democratic Rep. TIM RYAN.” DEMS ON DEFENSE — “Democrats Fight to Hold Oregon House Seat After Defeat of Centrist Incumbent,” by NYT’s Emily Cochrane: “Even [ousted Dem incumbent KURT SCHRADER] is publicly undecided. He said he had decided to stay out of the race even with his party’s control of the House at stake, refusing to say whom he would vote for.” — “Democrats hope abortion can help save a Kansas swing seat,” by WaPo’s Theodoric Meyer in Prairie Village, Kan.: “Rep. SHARICE DAVIDS (D-Kan.), who represents a district in the Kansas City suburbs that President Biden won narrowly in 2020, is emphasizing her support for abortion rights as she battles to retain her seat — an unthinkable strategy for a Kansas Democrat a few years ago.” BATTLE FOR THE STATES BORN TO BE IN IT — “Beto O’Rourke’s third campaign in 6 years embodies Democrats’ unrealized gains,” by WaPo’s Ruby Cramer in Edinburg, Texas: “ROBERT FRANCIS ‘BETO’ O’ROURKE has spent 1,175 of the last 2,048 days of his life running for office. Three races in six years: U.S. Senate, then president, now governor. O’Rourke is young, just 50 years old. He has become the emblem of unrealized ambition in the Democratic Party, a candidate who has kept going and going and may keep going still, even if he falls short on Tuesday. “Polls say [GOP Gov. GREG] ABBOTT, the eight-year Republican incumbent, a conservative stalwart and a possible presidential contender, has widened his lead in the final stretch of the race. Early-vote numbers in Texas are down compared to 2018, when O’Rourke capitalized on opposition to Donald Trump’s presidency. O’Rourke is well known throughout Texas, but he has attached himself to progressive ideas that many Texans never liked.” HOT ADS Via Steve Shepard — New York: DCCC Chair SEAN PATRICK MALONEY leans into the committee’s messaging , calling his GOP opponent “MAGA MIKE LAWLER.” “They were accused of stoking anti-Semitism to win elections,” a narrator says. — California: Two ads from a late-emerging House race along the California coast: Democratic Rep. JULIA BROWNLEY is hitting Republican MATT JACOBS on abortion, while Jacobs’ latest ad says Brownley “has been on the wrong side of working families.” — Washington: The STEVE WYNN-funded Our American Century is up with a late ad promoting GOP Senate candidate TIFFANY SMILEY. “The woke radicals intimidate leaders from being honest about what needs to be done — while the rest of us risk being ridiculed, canceled and labeled bigots if we dare even speak up,” a narrator says. “Tiffany Smiley knows this is not a time for timid leaders.”
| | | | NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID . | | | | | CONGRESS McCARTHY ON THE RECORD — House GOP Leader KEVIN McCARTHY sat down Sunday with CNN’s Melanie Zanona and Kristin Wilson for an interview in McAllen, Texas, where he “outlined his plans for power, which includes tackling inflation, rising crime and border security – three issues that have become central to Republicans’ closing pitch to voters,” they write. Some key quotes from McCarthy:
- On the GOP’s first priority: “The first thing you’ll see is a bill to control the border first. … You’ve got to get control over the border. You’ve had almost 2 million people just this year alone coming across.”
- On impeachment: “We will never use impeachment for political purposes. … That doesn’t mean if something rises to the occasion, it would not be used at any other time.”
- On Ukraine aid: “I’m very supportive of Ukraine. … I think there has to be accountability going forward. … You always need, not a blank check, but make sure the resources are going to where it is needed. And make sure Congress, and the Senate, have the ability to debate it openly.”
TRUMP CARDS YOU CAN’T HANDLE THE TRUTH SOCIAL — “Trump once reconsidered sticking with Truth Social. Now he’s stuck,” by WaPo’s Drew Harwell and Josh Dawsey: “Trump has told his allies that he can’t leave Truth Social, because he’s propping it up, and he doesn’t want a site so closely associated with his brand to collapse, according to people familiar with his thinking who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal matters.” FARA-FIELD — “‘Espionage Lite’ or Deal Making? Prosecutors Struggle to Draw a Line,” by NYT’s Rebecca Davis O’Brien: The ill-fated federal prosecution of Trump ally TOM BARRACK “hinged on a single, deceptively simple question: What makes someone an agent of a foreign government? Is it enough merely to ask intelligence officials from a foreign country for guidance on campaign speeches, cable news interviews, or magazine editorials? What about pushing the president’s advisers for policies favored by a foreign government?”
| | | | LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today . | | | | | JUDICIARY SQUARE SCOTUS WATCH — “Race Question in Supreme Court Adoption Case Unnerves Tribes,” by NYT’s Jan Hoffman: “The issue is whether a federal law that seeks to place Native American foster children in Native American homes is constitutional. The case could turn on whether the justices see tribes as racial groups or sovereign nations.” — “Supreme Court refuses to consider requiring 12-person juries,” by NBC’s Lawrence Hurley: “The Supreme Court on Monday declined over the objection of two justices to decide whether defendants facing serious criminal charges are legally entitled to a 12-person jury, rejecting an appeal from an Arizona man convicted of fraud by a jury of just eight people.” — “Supreme Court Hears Challenges to FTC and SEC In-House Courts,” by WSJ’s Jan Wolfe and Dave Michaels ON THE BOARD — “Jackson, in dissent, issues first Supreme Court opinion,” AP: “New Justice KETANJI BROWN JACKSON has issued her first Supreme Court opinion, a short dissent Monday in support of a death row inmate from Ohio. Jackson wrote that she would have thrown out lower court rulings in the case of inmate DAVEL CHINN, whose lawyers argued that the state suppressed evidence that might have altered the outcome of his trial.” AMERICA AND THE WORLD AT THE CLIMATE CONFAB — “In a shift, U.S. says companies are pivotal to climate talks’ success,” by WaPo’s Evan Halper and Timothy Puko: “With war, inflation and electoral chaos preoccupying world leaders, the Biden administration is looking for corporations to take center stage as the world’s biggest annual climate change event gets underway in Egypt. While government action typically dominates the talks, political paralysis and public pressure are pushing companies to step up with their own emission pledges — and money to help poorer countries bearing the brunt of climate change — at the U.N. Climate Change Conference in Sharm el-Sheikh, known as COP27.” ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA — “North Korea: Missile tests were practice to attack South, U.S.,” by AP’s Hyung-jin Kim in Seoul: “North Korea’s military said Monday its recent barrage of missile tests were practices to ‘mercilessly’ strike key South Korean and U.S. targets such as air bases and operation command systems with a variety of missiles that likely included nuclear-capable weapons.” PLAYBOOKERS STAFFING UP — Mark Ranneberger has joined the State Department as senior adviser for business engagement. He is a Lincoln Project and John Hickenlooper alum. TRANSITION — Angelika Pellegrino is now deputy comms director for Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.). She previously was American Rescue Plan outreach coordinator at the U.S. Economic Development Administration.
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