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Presented by Amazon: POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the afternoon in Washington. | | | | |  | | By Garrett Ross | | | TODAY’S SPLIT SCREEN — “The Fed and White House combine for a day that cuts to the heart of Biden’s political problem,” by CNN’s Phil Mattingly and MJ Lee: “The Fed is likely to trigger another historic interest rate hike and, about a half-mile away at the White House, [President JOE] BIDEN will host an event to highlight the administration’s extensive efforts to expand the workforce in critical fields like broadband and construction. “One policy decision is expected to ripple through markets , media and politics alike, turning a spotlight directly onto an issue that Democratic officials say has wrought significant damage to their political prospects. The other will detail an intensive administration effort designed to reshape the pipeline to enter into professions over time.” To say the least: “The difference between the two events, in the compressed political timetable Democrats are now scrambling to reset, is stark.” MIDTERM MARKERS — We’ve got more details from the latest POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, including the two major indicators that we’ve been tracking in the final weeks before Election Day: (1) Biden’s approval rating and (2) the generic congressional ballot. Toplines … Crosstabs This week’s theme: Steady as she goes. By the numbers: Biden’s overall approval rating remains at 43%.
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| And in the congressional ballot, Democrats hold a five-point lead over Republicans, 47% to 42%.
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| Other polling results you should know: — Do Dems have an enthusiasm problem? A new CNN poll out today finds that “27% of registered voters say they are extremely enthusiastic about voting this year, down from 37% just ahead of the 2018 midterm elections, and the decline in enthusiasm comes almost entirely among Democrats. “Four years ago, 44% of Democratic registered voters said they were extremely enthusiastic about voting; now, just 24% say the same. Among Republicans, the number has dipped only narrowly, from 43% to 38%.” Here’s how CNN has the generic ballot: Republicans lead Democrats 51% to 47% with likely voters, and 47% to 46% for registered voters. — Do Dems have a demographic problem? A new WSJ poll out today finds that “white women living in suburban areas, who make up 20% of the electorate, now favor Republicans for Congress by 15 percentage points, moving 27 percentage points away from Democrats since the Journal’s August poll.” What it means: The results could suggest “that the topic of abortion rights has faded in importance after Democrats saw energy on that issue this summer in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.” “According to the survey, rising prices were the top issue motivating these voters, with 34% putting that as their number one priority, followed by 28% citing threats to democracy and 16% choosing the Supreme Court overturning Roe . White suburban women trusted Republicans over Democrats to handle the economy and inflation. They also expressed more negative views toward the state of the country and President Biden’s leadership compared with a previous survey in August.” BIG NEWS FOR D.C. SPORTS FANS — “Snyders hire Bank of America Securities to explore Commanders sale,” by ESPN’s John Keim: “Washington Commanders co-owners DAN and TANYA SNYDER announced that they have hired Bank of America Securities to explore potential transactions involving the team. A statement from the team did not specify what those transactions might be, whether it was the sale of the team or they were pursuing minority investors.” Good Wednesday afternoon.
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| BIG PICTURE THE VIEW FROM 1600 PENN — Biden is preparing to deliver a major speech at Washington’s Union Station tonight “warning about escalating threats against the nation’s democracy,” our colleague Jonathan Lemire reports , noting that the speech will take place in the shadow of the Capitol and against the backdrop of the recent attack on Speaker NANCY PELOSI’s husband, PAUL, at their San Francisco home. “Biden’s advisers had hoped to make his closing campaign argument about economy and inflation but could not ignore the confluence of dark conspiracies that have further tested the nation’s stability.” TAKE A GAMBLE — “Political betting is surging. The forecast is about to get complicated,” by WaPo’s Rick Maese: “While betting on U.S. elections is a thriving business overseas, political gambling has long been banned on the federal level in the United States and no state has sought to regulate it. Instead, election wagering here functions more like the stock market than a sports book, as people buy and sell shares of candidates, whose prices fluctuate with the news. But even as the markets continue to move into the mainstream conversation as the midterms approach, that pursuit is now on shaky ground.” BATTLE FOR THE SENATE RED WAVE WATCH — “Patty Murray Faces Stiff Challenge in Senate Re-election Race,” NYT’s Emily Cochrane in Seattle: “Should she win a sixth term next week, [Sen. PATTY MURRAY] will be the fourth most senior senator and in line to be the top Democrat on the powerful Appropriations Committee that controls government spending. But her re-election hinges in large part on voters … putting aside their frustrations with a national party that has fallen short of some of its most expansive policy ambitions and casting a vote for Ms. Murray, whom many of them have come to regard as a fixture who will be there no matter what.” BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE DEM VS. DEM — “A battle over who is the true progressive defines L.A. congressional race,” by the L.A. Times’ Jeong Park: “To avoid being the first incumbent Democratic congress member to lose to a same-party challenger in Southern California in 10 years, [Rep. JIMMY] GOMEZ, 47, must persuade enough voters that working inside the party is still effective. To pull off a win, his rival, [DAVID] KIM, 38, must sell enough voters across racial lines on ‘co-governing’ with activists.” THE NEW GOP — “New class of combative MAGA candidates poised to roil House GOP,” WaPo’s Isaac Arnsdorf and Marianna Sotomayor BATTLE FOR THE STATES FOR YOUR RADAR — “As Stakes Rise, State Supreme Courts Become Crucial Election Battlegrounds,” by NYT’s Michael Wines HOT ADS Via Steve Shepard — Georgia: “Two years ago, we were strong, respected around the world. Families were stronger, too,” says GOP Senate candidate HERSCHEL WALKER in his closing-argument ad , which was co-sponsored by the NRSC. “Then Joe Biden came along. It’s time to take our country back. Start thinking about greatness again.” … The Democratic super PAC Georgia Honor asks voters to “look up the facts” on Walker. “Look at all the police reports and how the violence and lies continue,” a narrator says. — Wisconsin: “Aren’t you tired of the division, the anger? I know I sure am,” says GOP Sen. RON JOHNSON in the closing argument of an ad campaign that has successfully driven up the negatives of his Democratic opponent, MANDELA BARNES. — New Hampshire: In their latest ad for mostly abandoned GOP candidate DON BOLDUC, Sentinel Action Fund, a political arm of Heritage Action, asks, “Stuck on your Senate vote? Vote your thermostat,” accusing Democratic Sen. MAGGIE HASSAN of contributing to the high cost of heating oil. — Utah: Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS appears direct-to-camera in the Club for Growth’s latest ad backing GOP Sen. MIKE LEE against independent EVAN McMULLIN, whom DeSantis calls “a donkey in sheep’s clothing.” — New York: The 11th-hour ad campaign funded by the Democratic Governors Association features the brother of deceased Capitol police officer BRIAN SICKNICK. “[GOP candidate] LEE ZELDIN refused to support an investigation into the violence against the police,” Sicknick’s brother says, adding that Zeldin “puts his politics before the police.” — Iowa: Actor BEN STEIN reprises his classroom role in “Ferris Bueller’s Day Off” for GOP Sen. CHUCK GRASSLEY’s latest ad. “Grassley? Grassley? Where’s Chuck?” Stein asks, drolly, before a voice off-camera replies, “He’s meeting with Iowans in all 99 counties.” — Maine: Former GOP Rep. BRUCE POLIQUIN’s latest ad hammers Democratic Rep. JARED GOLDEN on fuel prices leading into this winter and features b-roll of Poliquin with former Gov. PAUL LePAGE, who is expected to carry the Golden/Poliquin district even if his comeback bid against Democratic Gov. JANET MILLS falls short. — Rhode Island: GOP gubernatorial candidate ASHLEY KALUS’ closing-argument ad clips footage of now-Gov. DAN McKEE in a debate for lieutenant governor in 2014, saying the state should elect “new leadership.” — Illinois: Congressional Leadership Fund’s latest ad in an open seat in Northwest Illinois casts the 2022 health and climate law, dubbed the Inflation Reduction Act, as a “multibillion-dollar lie” and says Democrat ERIC SORENSEN, a first-time candidate, “sold us out again.” — North Carolina: “Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden are destroying America,” begins the latest ad from GOP congressional candidate SANDY SMITH, which began running on Wednesday, five days after the attack on Pelosi’s husband, Paul. (Smith’s campaign has largely been abandoned by national Republican groups, and Democratic advertising in the Eastern North Carolina district has highlighted accusations of spousal and child abuse.)
| | | | NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID . | | | | | JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH INSIDE THE EASTMAN EMAILS — After the 2020 election, lawyers for Trump saw a direct appeal to Supreme Court Justice CLARENCE THOMAS as their best hope of derailing Biden’s win, according to explosive new emails obtained by congressional investigators on the Jan. 6 committee and obtained by our colleagues Kyle Cheney, Josh Gerstein and Nicholas Wu . “We want to frame things so that Thomas could be the one to issue some sort of stay or other circuit justice opinion saying Georgia is in legitimate doubt,” Trump attorney KENNETH CHESEBRO wrote in a Dec. 31, 2020, email to Trump’s legal team. Chesebro contended that Thomas would be “our only chance to get a favorable judicial opinion by Jan. 6, which might hold up the Georgia count in Congress.” “I think I agree with this,” attorney JOHN EASTMAN replied later that morning, suggesting that a favorable move by Thomas or other justices would “kick the Georgia legislature into gear” to help overturn the election results. MORE POLITICS 2024 WATCH — The latest signal that Trump is ready to hop into the presidential campaign comes from AP’s Jill Colvin , who reports that “aides and allies are now eyeing the two-week stretch after the Nov. 8 midterms as a possible window for an announcement, though they caution that he hasn’t made a decision and that — as always when it comes to Trump — things could change, particularly if the election results are delayed due to recounts or a possible runoff election in Georgia.”
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Amazon’s donation and delivery of critical items helps partners including Americare, Save the Children, and World Central Kitchen provide rapid relief in the face of disasters. Read more about Amazon’s disaster relief efforts this hurricane season. Sponsored by Amazon   | | | WAR IN UKRAINE THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO — “Russian Military Leaders Discussed Use of Nuclear Weapons, U.S. Officials Say,” by NYT’s Helene Cooper, Julian Barnes and Eric Schmitt THE KIM-KREMLIN ALLIANCE — “U.S. accuses North Korea of trying to hide shipments of ammunition to Russia,” by CNN’s Kylie Atwood and Katie Bo Lillis: “U.S. officials believe that the surreptitious North Korean shipments — along with drones and other weaponry that Russia has acquired from Iran – are further evidence that even Moscow’s conventional artillery arsenals have dwindled during eight months of combat.” AGAINST THE GRAIN — “Russia rejoins key deal on wartime Ukrainian grain exports,” by AP’s Andrew Meldrum and Suzan Fraser AMERICA AND THE WORLD HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH — “Saudis in U.S. targeted as kingdom cracks down on dissent,” by AP’s Ellen Knickmeyer ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA — “N Korea fires 23 missiles, prompting air raid alert in South,” by AP’s Hyung-jin Kim: “Air raid sirens sounded on a South Korean island and residents evacuated to underground shelters after North Korea fired more than 20 missiles Wednesday, at least one of them in its direction and landing near the rivals’ tense sea border. South Korea quickly responded by launching its own missiles in the same border area.” THE LATEST IN ISRAEL — “Israel’s Netanyahu appears to edge toward victory after vote,” by AP’s Tia Goldenberg in Jerusalem
| | | | LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today . | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS SPOTTED at a celebration hosted by Mindset at its HQ in D.C. on Tuesday night: Ken Wingert, Patrick Ottenhoff, Angelena Bradfield, Nick Simpson, Josh Lynch, John Huff, Julie Henson, Adam Minehardt, Freddy Mitchell, Mike Piwowar, Mary Kate Clement, David Dworkin, Nana Nyanin, Jane Alonso and Amanda Slater. TRANSITIONS — Andrew Okuyiga is now VP of public affairs at UPS. He previously was a member of Amazon's public policy team and is a House Transportation & Infrastructure Committee alum. … Ryan Walker is now VP of government relations at Heritage Action. He previously was senior director at PhRMA. … Jason Ginenthal is now associate director of media relations at pharmaceutical company Boehringer Ingelheim. He most recently was a freelance PR consultant. … … Carrie Welton is now senior director for policy and advocacy, anti-poverty and basic needs at The Institute for College Access and Success. She previously was senior consultant at Rios Partners. … Terry Holt has joined Mercury. He previously founded HDMK, a bipartisan public affairs practice. … Alexandra Hess is now counsel in Cassidy Levy Kent’s DC office. She previously was an attorney-advisor with CBP. WEDDINGS — Emily Schlichting, engagement manager at McKinsey and a Patty Murray and Obama HHS alum and David Demres, principal at Peterson Partners, got married on Saturday in Cleveland, Ga. The couple met in 2017 at Harvard while they pursued degrees in public policy. Pics by Adam Linke of The Decisive Moment ... Another pic — John Sakellariadis, a cybersecurity reporter at POLITICO, and Charlotte Hillman, a segment producer for the “Late Show with Stephen Colbert,” recently got married in Blue Bell, Pa. The two met in college, when John was the fifth wheel on a double-date with his sister and Carly, after which she thought he was “weird.” But the two reconnected a year later and have been together for over eight years now. Pic WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Casey Hollers, senior director of regulatory affairs and policy at NGSA, and Logan Hollers, director at Invariant, welcomed Layla Gold Hollers on Nov. 1. She joins big sister Avery. Pic — Laura Pickard, director of government affairs and international trade at the American Forest & Paper Association, and Jacob Farrier welcomed Marie Evelyn Pickard on Oct. 28. She joins big brother Frederick. Pic BONUS BIRTHDAY: Jim Stern of AO Smith (6-0)
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