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Presented by Meta: POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the afternoon in Washington. | | | | |  | | By Eli Okun | | | |  The Senate Leadership Fund and affiliated groups are spraying another $6.2 million into the Pennsylvania Senate race to bolster Mehmet Oz. | Matt Rourke, File/AP Photo | It’s debate night in America: One of the busiest evenings of the midterm calendar, candidates will square off tonight in several marquee races where both candidates will look for a momentum shift for the election’s final weeks. JOHN FETTERMAN vs. MEHMET OZ in Pennsylvania; Gov. KATHY HOCHUL vs. Rep. LEE ZELDIN in New York; TUDOR DIXON vs. Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER in Michigan; Sen. MICHAEL BENNET vs. JOE O’DEA in Colorado. Here’s the latest news you need to know, and the most illuminating stories to set the stage, before tonight. Pennsylvania: Republicans double down. The Senate Leadership Fund and affiliated groups are spraying another $6.2 million into the Senate race to bolster Oz, Burgess Everett reports . This, it turns out, is where the money SLF pulled out of New Hampshire last week is headed. The race has tightened significantly in recent weeks as Republicans have swamped the airwaves and their voters have come home to Oz. Now, the national party thinks victory is within reach. The TV and radio spots from American Crossroads and Faith and Power PAC, hitting Fetterman on crime, will run from now through Election Day. They’ll help reverse a slight Democratic advantage on TV ads in the state the past two weeks. The 30-second Faith and Power ad The DSCC’s digital effort to inform Pennsylvanians about how to vote has now topped $1 million, per Burgess . More evidence of a tight race: The latest CBS/YouGov poll has Fetterman ahead of Oz, 51% to 49%. New York: Dems try to stave off an upset. The party is freaking out about the governor’s race getting closer than expected, as Hochul races to broaden her message beyond DONALD TRUMP and abortion and address Zeldin’s attacks on crime, NYT’s Nicholas Fandos reports . Hochul is shifting ads and rhetoric to focus more on economic and safety concerns. Though she’s still the favorite, “some level of panic appears to be setting in” ahead of tonight’s debate. Zeldin’s emphasis on crime — even more than inflation, compared to many other Republicans — has helped give him a leg up in the race, AP’s Michelle Price reports . Michigan: Dems call in the cavalry. Former President BARACK OBAMA is out with a new ad backing Whitmer , although he mispronounces “Michiganders.” (He also recorded a new spot for North Carolina Senate nominee CHERI BEASLEY ). Debate preview from The Detroit News Colorado: O’Dea plays up the border. Two weeks out from Election Day, the GOP Senate nominee is … leaving the state — to head to the Rio Grande Valley on Wednesday and Thursday, per The Denver Post’s Nick Coltrain . He’ll highlight immigration issues, with a particular focus on illegal drug trafficking and fentanyl: “I’m headed to the border because Michael Bennet won’t,” he said this weekend. DEMS IN DISARRAY — The fallout from House progressives’ letter urging renewed U.S. diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine, as we detailed this morning , continued today: Rep. SARA JACOBS (D-Calif.) said she signed the letter on June 30 and wouldn’t have done so now. Rep. ILHAN OMAR (D-Minn.) said it was “very frustrating” that months elapsed between the letter’s creation and its release: “Once you sign on to a letter, it’s up to the original drafters and unfortunately not all of them will keep folks updated.” And then the crescendo grew too loud: The Congressional Progressive Caucus officially withdrew the letter this afternoon. Chair PRAMILA JAYAPAL (D-Wash.) blamed its release on staff, but said she accepted responsibility for it. “Amateur hour on part of the CPC,” one anonymous signatory told Alex Ward, Andrew Desiderio, Nick Wu and Jordain Carney . Caught our eye: Rep. GERRY CONNOLLY (D-Va.), who’s in Croatia advocating for Ukraine, released a sharp statement : “We cannot engage in magical thinking regarding the nature of the Russian threat.” Connolly and Rep. JAMIE RASKIN (D-Md.), who signed the letter, are the two top rivals to lead House Oversight Dems next term. IN MEMORIAM — “Ashton Carter, defense chief who opened combat roles to women, dies at 68,” by WaPo’s Brian Murphy, Dan Lamothe and Alex Horton: “A statement from Mr. Carter’s family said he had a ‘sudden cardiac event.’ Mr. Carter, a Rhodes scholar and theoretical physicist, never served in the military. But he had important roles in shaping defense policies over more than three decades — including trying to contain the spread of nuclear technology in the chaotic years after the collapse of the Soviet Union and revamping Pentagon priorities to confront China’s expanded military reach in East Asia.” Good Tuesday afternoon. What would you ask if you were one of tonight’s moderators? Drop me a line: eokun@politico.com .
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| BIG PICTURE WHO WATCHES THE WATCHMEN — Promulgators of false election fraud claims have worked hard to recruit legions of GOP poll watchers to monitor, and perhaps challenge, the vote, WaPo’s Patrick Marley, Rosalind Helderman and Tom Hamburger report from Racine, Wis. It’s not clear whether the volunteers will actually show up — some early indicators point to no — but the moves could “subject voting results around the country to an unprecedented level of suspicion and unfounded doubt.” Election workers are worried about them becoming “agents of disruption” even if there are issues in just a handful of locales. UNDERSTANDING THE ELECTORATE — In the latest installment of his “Deciders” series, WaPo’s Dan Balz goes to Las Vegas to dive deep on the Latino vote and the million-dollar question of whether working-class Hispanics will keep trending more GOP. In Nevada, any Democratic success likely hinges on canvassing — grueling efforts in triple-digit heat. Door-knocking could matter more than ever after the aberration of 2020, when many Dems forewent the practice, and Balz has plenty of stories (with conflicting signals) from the sidewalk. POLL POSITION — A big reason for uncertainty this year: We’ve gotten fewer polls than usual. National surveys make a greater percentage of the landscape than they used to, and so do partisan surveys, FiveThirtyEight’s Geoffrey Skelley reports . The upshot is that 339 House districts haven’t been polled, and about half of the other 96 have only one survey. And “we have less polling in seemingly uncompetitive statewide races than in most recent midterm cycles, which could make it more likely that we miss a late-developing and potentially surprising result.” CRIME PAYS — Republicans’ national ad offensive attacking Democrats on crime has also invoked race, NYT’s Jonathan Weisman reports , in new tactics “so widespread as to have become an important weapon in the 2022 Republican arsenal.” Unlike in past years, when appeals to white fears were quieter, the GOP is unbowed by Democratic charges of racism, “saying they see nothing untoward in their imagery and nothing to apologize for.” THE NEW GOP — The Trace’s Jennifer Mascia, Mike Spies and Chip Brownlee surveyed 79 Republican candidates in the country’s most competitive races to ask if they agree with ALEX JONES’ conspiracy theories about the Sandy Hook massacre or back the victims’ families suing him. Just seven answered, most saying they disagreed with Jones’ “hoax” narrative: Rep. DON BACON, APRIL BECKER, BARBARA KIRKMEYER, BRIAN MARYOTT, MICHAEL LAWLER and GEORGE LOGAN. New Hampshire’s BOB BURNS said he didn’t support the families. Almost all the GOP’s marquee candidates didn’t respond. KARI LAKE’s spox: “These are by far the most irrelevant questions to this race I’ve ever had in a year and a half of this campaign.” PSYCHOLOGY LESSON — “Why the Price of Gas Has Such Power Over Us,” by NYT’s Emily Badger and Eve Washington BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE RED WAVE — Republicans’ midterm advantage is threatening Democrats deep into blue territory, NYT’s Shane Goldmacher reports from Providence, R.I. Almost the entire House battleground is now being fought on Biden-won turf. Explanations include abortion rights being less motivating because they’re protected, or voters having no one to blame for economic woes but Dems. UPSET WATCH — Rep. DAN KILDEE (D-Mich.) is facing stiffer competition than anticipated from PAUL JUNGE, The Detroit Free Press’ Todd Spangler reports . The close race in a longtime Dem area “suggests how this region, which has seen its automaking and industrial base decimated, and its voters, have changed. … Even if it’s close, that could mean a long night for Democrats nationally, suggesting that Republicans could pick up more competitive seats.” THE LAST FRONTIER — What’s the political strategy behind SARAH PALIN praising Democratic Rep. MARY PELTOLA and bashing fellow Republican NICK BEGICH in Alaska’s congressional race? There isn’t one, reports The Daily Beast’s Sam Brodey from Anchorage: “[I]t seems far more based on honest personal preference—a true statement of both hatred and admiration.” Even if it clears the path for Dems to hold the seat.
| | | | NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID . | | | | | BATTLE FOR THE STATES THE JUGGERNAUT — Florida voters are divided over Gov. RON DeSANTIS. But in a new NYT focus group , they pretty much all agree that he’s winning reelection — and coming for the rest of the country. “The group split over the governor’s policies,” write Patrick Healy and Adrian Rivera, “but at a time of frustration over real or perceived ineffectiveness in government in America, many of our participants credited him with having a vision and an agenda — whether they liked it or not — and that he was able to enact much of it.” THE UP-AND-COMER — It turns out that all MAGA Republicans in Arizona needed was a little more finesse. Lake, who presents Trump’s hard-right election denialism (and JOHN McCAIN hate) with TV anchor polish, has managed to unify much of the state party where Trump could not, WSJ’s Eliza Collins reports from Phoenix. “Several Republicans who had supported Ms. Lake’s opponent in the primary and are now backing her said they agreed with her policy proposals—especially on the economy—and they played down or omitted her contentions on election fraud.” And that’s given Lake momentum in the race. DOWN BALLOT — The New Republic’s Grace Segers examines the Phoenix-area districts that will determine control of the fiercely contested Arizona state legislature. Democrats who need to flip only a few seats are arguing that they could serve as a potential check on Lake in the governor’s mansion, but some worry they don’t have enough resources relative to the top of the ticket. HOT POLLS — Georgia: Republicans have the advantage, per Trafalgar/Daily Wire : HERSCHEL WALKER leads Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK, 49% to 47%, while Gov. BRIAN KEMP is up over STACEY ABRAMS, 52% to 45%. — Nevada: The Phillips Academy Poll finds Democrats in the lead : Sen. CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO is beating ADAM LAXALT, 49% to 47%, while Gov. STEVE SISOLAK leads JOE LOMBARDO, 50% to 45%. — Connecticut: Democratic Gov. NED LAMONT is ahead of BOB STEFANOWSKI, 52% to 41%, per Emerson College/WTNH/The Hill . HOT ADS
Via Steve Shepard — Oklahoma: “I’m a person of faith and a teacher,” Democratic gubernatorial nominee JOY HOFMEISTER says in her latest spot , adding, “I know when folks need a time out, whether that’s Joe Biden or Gov. [KEVIN] STITT.” — New York: DCCC Chair SEAN PATRICK MALONEY’s latest ad features an unidentified former police officer calling the GOP ads hitting Maloney “lies” and touting the Democrat’s votes to hire cops and pass stricter gun laws. — North Carolina: House Majority PAC’s latest ad for a newly drawn swing seat near Raleigh invokes Jan. 6, accusing GOP nominee BO HINES of “[siding] with extremists over the cops who defended our Capitol, even after five police officers lost their lives.” — Georgia: Senate Leadership Fund’s latest ad says Warnock “chose Biden’s reckless spending and crushing taxes instead of helping Georgia families.”
| | | | A message from Meta:   | | | JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH COMMITTEE LATEST — HOPE HICKS is meeting with the House Jan. 6 committee today for an interview, per NBC . THE INVESTIGATIONS — MARK MEADOWS is asking a court to block a subpoena for his testimony in the Fulton County, Ga., investigation in the effort to overturn the 2020 election, Kyle Cheney reports . He’s arguing that DA FANI WILLIS’ special grand jury doesn’t qualify as a criminal investigation. The matter is before a Trump appointee. MORE POLITICS 2024 WATCH — CHRIS LaCIVITA could assume a major role in a Trump 2024 bid, WaPo’s Michael Scherer and Josh Dawsey report , as Trump world eyes the Virginia strategist for campaign manager or senior adviser. He’s a longtime GOP establishment figure who’s currently senior strategist for MAGA Inc. and a consultant for Sen. RON JOHNSON’s (R-Wis.) reelect. — Sen. CORY BOOKER (D-N.J.), on the campaign trail with Sen. MAGGIE HASSAN (D-N.H.), said he thinks New Hampshire should remain at the front of the presidential primary pack, Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser reports from Derry. And Booker didn’t rule out another run at the White House someday: “I’m fortunate. I’m young. There’s a lot of runway ahead of me.” POLICY CORNER MUCK READ — “Social Security whistleblowers say they were sidelined for exposing fines,” by WaPo’s Lisa Rein: “Two senior attorneys drew attention to a program leveling massive, unprecedented fees on poor and elderly people.” GETTING A BOOST — As he receives his coronavirus vaccine booster shot today, Biden will announce several new Covid plans: HHS will host pop-up vaccination events and send vaccination tool kits to various community hubs. CMS will contact seniors with info on the updated boosters. And Walgreens, DoorDash and Uber will deliver Paxlovid free to underserved areas. More details from ABC AMERICA AND THE WORLD GRINER UPDATE — A Russian court today turned away BRITTNEY GRINER’s appeal of her jail sentence, likely dooming the WNBA player to nine years in a penal colony unless the U.S. can get her out via negotiations. More from the BBC HOW THE WHITE HOUSE SEES IRAN — The Biden administration supports the ongoing protests in Iran, but it won’t push publicly for regime change, Nahal Toosi reports . Instead, it’s trying to split the difference, with plans for more sanctions coming this week but no “all-out pressure campaign to isolate Iran’s government or abandon nuclear talks with the regime.” Within the admin, everyone is on board with the middle strategy, while acknowledging they can do only so much to back the protesters.
| | | | JOIN WOMEN RULE THURSDAY FOR A TALK WITH DEPARTING MEMBERS OF CONGRESS: A historic wave of retirements is hitting Congress, including several prominent Democratic women such as Illinois Rep. Cheri Bustos, House Democrats’ former campaign chief. What is driving their departures? Join POLITICO on Oct. 27 for “The Exit Interview,” a virtual event that will feature a conversation with departing members where they'll explain why they decided to leave office and what challenges face their parties ahead. REGISTER HERE . | | | | | MEDIAWATCH THE OTHER SIDE OF THE TAPES — “What ‘The Trump Tapes’ reveal about Bob Woodward,” by WaPo’s Elahe Izadi PLAYBOOKERS OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the New York Civil Liberties Union and American Civil Liberties Union’s 20th annual benefit concert, Sing Out For Freedom, on Monday night: Tom Hanks, Rita Wilson, Patti Smith, Padma Lakshmi, Busy Philipps, Sarah Jones, Roy Wood Jr., Deborah Archer, Donna Lieberman and Desmond Child. TRANSITIONS — Sean McCormack will be VP of comms at Chevron. He currently is managing director at TrailRunner International, and is a Bush State Department and White House alum. … Chris McGrath is now VP leading comms, impact and advocacy work at the Uplift Agency. He most recently was at Velocity Global, and is a Harry Reid, Bob Menendez and U.N. alum. … Marc Rucker is now VP for finance and administration at the Council for Responsible Nutrition. He previously was VP for finance and operations for the American College of Nurse-Midwives. WEEKEND WEDDING — Lauren Allen , associate legal adviser with DHS, and Zach Zoller, program analyst with DOE’s National Nuclear Security Administration, got married Saturday at St. Patrick’s Catholic Church, followed by a reception at Old Ebbitt Grill. The couple met on New Year’s Eve seven years ago at Town Hall. Pic … SPOTTED: Lisle and Ben Bruns, Ryan Dilworth, Mike Davin, Hawley Stanton, Molly Stevens, Joe Venegas, Jason Isakovic, Alex Davidson, Audrey Smith, Canyon Brimhall and Marty Boughton. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Jonathan Murphy, senior manager of public affairs at Raytheon Technologies, and Emily Kaizer Murphy, CEO at Murray Kaizer Dental Lab, recently welcomed Jeremiah Tyler Murphy. He joins big sister Mackenzie Jane. Pic … Another pic — Mary Kate Mullaney, senior director of comms at GE, and Mark Mullaney, a New Hampshire public defender, welcomed Ella Frances Mullaney on Friday.
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