BIG PICTURE WHOLE WORLD WATCHING — As DONALD TRUMP continues to insert himself into the midterms, countries all across the world are paying attention, wondering if his return to the political arena will foreshadow another bid for the White House. “Officials from Europe and Asia are flying from their home countries to augment the traditional work of consulates and embassies in trying to decipher the political contests, according to conversations with diplomats and others from foreign governments,” Bloomberg’s Saleha Mohsin reports . The worry among many governments is that a Trump return would “portend unwelcome foreign policy U-turns, imperiling efforts to resuscitate the Iran nuclear deal and U.S. support for North Atlantic Treaty Organization.” DEMS’ DONOR DRAIN — “Michael Bloomberg, Tom Steyer And The Case Of The Missing Megadonors,” by HuffPost’s Kevin Robillard: After pouring millions into the effort to beat Trump in 2020, MICHAEL BLOOMBERG and TOM STEYER “are giving substantially less to Democratic efforts, part of a wave of major Democratic donors who have cut back their giving, often arguing their efforts to defeat Trump two years ago were sufficient or feeling uncertain whether their money will be put to good use.” THE DEM DRAIN — Democrats in Florida, once the poster child of swing states, are worried that this November’s elections will cement the state’s status as more of a Republican stronghold. “The frustration is the culmination of nearly a decade of Republican inroads in Florida, where candidates have honed deeply conservative social and economic messages to build something of a coalition that includes rural voters and Latinos, particularly Cuban Americans,” AP’s Steve Peoples, Adriana Gomez Licon and Brendan Farrington report from The Villages . “Donald Trump’s win here in 2016 signaled the evolution after the state twice backed BARACK OBAMA. And while he lost the White House in 2020, Trump carried Florida by more than 3 percentage points, a remarkable margin in a state where elections were regularly decided by less than a percentage point.” BATTLE FOR THE SENATE IN OHIO — As Democratic Rep. TIM RYAN tries to run down Republican J.D. VANCE in the Ohio Senate race, he’s doing so in a campaign that has, at times, been less about party ID and more about authenticity. “He is trying to make the contest about whose public persona is closer to the truth, and closer to Ohio’s — often eliding his own political calibrations through the years as a former abortion opponent who once earned an ‘A’ rating from the National Rifle Association,” NYT’s Matt Flegenheimer reports from Columbus . “The race in Ohio has become a real-time experiment with national ramifications for a party desperate for a new template to engage white working-class voters who have come to distrust most Democrats.” How quickly things change: “Four years ago, he helped organize a well-publicized bus tour through the Midwest for venture capitalists eyeing investment opportunities in overlooked areas. In photographs from the trip, one face stands out now, grinning with peers a few feet from Mr. Ryan, a lanyard hanging over his checkered button-down. ‘J.D. Vance,’ Mr. Ryan recalled. ‘On the bus!’” Photo at the link — Mark your calendar: Ryan and Vance are now set to appear together in a Fox News town hall in Columbus on Nov. 1, co-moderated by Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum. SWINGING OF THE FENCES — In the North Carolina Senate race between Republican Rep. TED BUDD and Democrat CHERI BEASLEY , the campaigns are notably not spending an outsized amount of time trying to tap into an ever-smaller pool of undecided voters, opting instead to turn out as many voters as possible within their respective parties. “The slice of the state’s electorate that is seen as persuadable is getting smaller, a trend that has shown up in many parts of the country, strategists from both parties said,” WSJ’s Joshua Jamerson writes from Greensboro . “In North Carolina, where the state’s voter-registration system allows for voters to be unaffiliated with either party, strategists say even those voters typically lean heavily to one side of the aisle.” BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE RUST BELT REPORT — In Wilkes Barre, Pa., where Republican JIM BOGNET is trying to unseat Democratic Rep. MATT CARTWRIGHT, it’s not the economy or abortion that is taking center stage. “Their race, considered a tossup by political analysts, shows how immigration is a resonant issue in areas far from traditional immigrant gateways this year,” WSJ’s Tarini Parti and Paul Overberg write . “A Wall Street Journal analysis of census data found that Luzerne County, where Wilkes-Barre is located, diversified faster than any other large county in the U.S. during the first two decades of this century.” BATTLE FOR THE STATES DEEP IN THE HEART — “Texas Gov. Abbott tests whether conservative is enough in Trump GOP,” by WaPo’s Molly Hennessy-Fiske in Houston: “If [Florida Gov. RON] DeSANTIS is a template for a new generation of reflexively pugnacious Republicans, [Texas Gov. GREG] ABBOTT represents nearly the opposite: a candidate whose lawyerly, calculating approach leaves him perennially overshadowed, even as he chalks up conservative victories. While he has scrambled to accommodate a party moving sharply to the right, he is testing whether that is enough to please supporters of former president Donald Trump whose support he would need to win higher office without alienating the more moderate Republicans who have so far fueled his career.” THE GOAT AND THE GOV — “Tom Brady and Ron DeSantis Are Said to Be on Texting Terms,” by NYT’s Reid Epstein in Oconomowoc, Wis.: Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS “attended a Green Bay Packers football game last month and spent part of the game texting with [Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB TOM] BRADY, according to [Republican Wisconsin gubernatorial nominee TIM] MICHELS , who hosted the Florida governor in Green Bay and told supporters in Wisconsin last week about their time together.” HOT ADS — Wisconsin: GOP Sen. RON JOHNSON’s latest ad (coordinated with the NRSC) hits Democrat MANDELA BARNES on the three big Republican issues in this election: crime, inflation and immigration. Barnes “supports all the policies causing you and your family so much pain,” a narrator says. — California: Democratic Rep. JOSH HARDER hits his Republican opponent , former San Joaquin County Supervisor TOM PATTI, on homelessness. “We need to get people off the streets and treat this crisis like the emergency it is,” Harder says at the end of the ad.
| 
