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Presented by Meta: POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the afternoon in Washington. | | | | |  | | By Eli Okun | | | UP FOR DEBATE — Fox News announced that BRET BAIER and MARTHA MacCALLUM will co-moderate the Aug. 23 GOP presidential primary debate in Milwaukee.
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Hunter Biden is likely to avoid prison time under the terms of a plea deal outlined in court today. | Patrick Semansky/AP Photo | HUNTER GATHERING — Federal prosecutors in Delaware have struck a deal with HUNTER BIDEN, the president’s son, in which he’ll plead guilty to two misdemeanor tax charges and likely avoid time behind bars, a court filing today revealed. Read it here On a third charge, this one a felony, Biden will be able to get a count of possessing a gun while using illicit drugs dismissed after two years of probation. The probe stems from his failure to pay significant amounts of income tax in 2017 and 2018, as well as having a gun in 2018. He’s had years of struggle with addiction, legal troubles and personal turmoil. It seems that if he completes a diversion program, he will be able to walk away without a felony on his record — with the requirement that he must remain sober for two years and give up his right to own a gun ever again. The deal still requires a judge’s approval. Surrender and arraignment are expected soon. Other than the probation, thus may conclude the long-running legal probe into Biden, which began under the Trump administration and continued to be led by DONALD TRUMP-appointed U.S. Attorney for Delaware DAVID WEISS even after President JOE BIDEN took office. Getting here was no simple feat, as the investigation included multiple law enforcement agencies across multiple states. “At times, tensions among investigating U.S. attorney’s offices and agencies ran high and there were disagreements about potential courses of action,” NBC’s Sarah Fitzpatrick and Tom Winter report. This is “intended to be a comprehensive resolution of Hunter Biden’s potential legal liability in all matters investigated by federal authorities,” Kyle Cheney reports. Notably, that would mean no charges related to his behavior with foreign entities, even as Republicans have alleged corruption. That’s how Hunter Biden’s team framed it this morning, too. N.Y. Mag’s Andrew Rice says the deal “more or less matches the outcome his most optimistic supporters were forecasting a year ago.” But there’s some uncertainty here: CNN reports that in DOJ’s press release, Weiss described the investigation as “ongoing.” “The President and First Lady love their son and support him as he continues to rebuild his life,” the White House said in a statement. “We will have no further comment.” But the president’s political opponents had plenty more comment to provide. Congressional Republicans and conservative commentators decried the plea — without evidence — as overly lenient, a “sweetheart deal” and an example of a politicized justice system. (Notably, WaPo has reported that nationally, very few people are charged for lying on the firearms form like Biden did.) And it definitely won’t be the end of Congress’ Hunter investigation. House Oversight Chair JAMES COMER (R-Ky.) dismissed the charges as a “slap on the wrist” and pledged that his Biden family probe would proceed unimpeded. Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY called on DOJ to provide its records to House Oversight. NEW POLL SHOWS TRUMP SLIPPAGE — A new post-indictment CNN/SSRS poll just posted and is already causing a stir online. Among Republican-aligned voters, Trump’s favorability is now 67% (down 10 points since May), the percentage who say he’s their top choice for president is 47% (down 6 points since May), and nearly a quarter “now say they would not consider backing his candidacy under any circumstances,” write Jennifer Agiesta and Ariel Edwards-Levy. Yet to be answered: whether this poll is an outlier or an early harbinger of a lasting change. HAVANA OOH NA NA — After a couple of weeks of consternation over China’s reported plans to build a spy base in Cuba, WSJ’s Warren Strobel, Gordon Lubold, Vivian Salama and Michael Gordon this morning scooped Beijing’s intentions to go even further. They report that the two countries are in advanced (though still ongoing) talks to create an outpost for joint military training, raising the prospect of Chinese troops quite close to the U.S. mainland, as part of China’s “Project 141” initiative. The Biden administration is scrambling to forestall the facility, telling Cuba that agreeing to it could amount to “ceding sovereignty.” THE VIEW FROM THE NRCC — DCCC Chair SUZAN DelBENE (D-Wash.) may feel bullish about her odds of flipping the chamber because of the votes front-line Republicans have had to take, as we reported in Playbook this morning. But the NRCC thinks it’s much ado about nothing for voters: “The DCCC’s focus on Beltway process demonstrates they still haven’t figured out what really concerns voters after losing the majority,” comms director JACK PANDOL responds in a statement. “Republicans have already forced responsible spending cuts, stopped Democrats from coddling criminals, and ended the COVID emergency early — we are building a strong record of accomplishment stopping the Biden agenda and we will grow our majority.” Good Tuesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.
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Explore more possibilities with the metaverse. | | | TRUMP CARDS MARK YOUR CALENDARS (IN PENCIL) — U.S. District Court Judge AILEEN CANNON today set a starting trial date of Aug. 14 or thereabouts for the Trump federal criminal case involving his handling of classified materials. That’s an incredibly fast timeline — and, indeed, you can expect it to get bumped back, Kyle Cheney reports. Setting an early/aspirational trial date and then pushing it later is common practice for some judges, and Kyle’s deep dive into Cannon’s judicial history shows that she does exactly that in all manner of cases. Pre-trial motions will likely delay it. “While her order on Tuesday starts the clock on a slew of important pretrial matters in the Trump case,” he writes, “it’s not likely to resemble anything close to the timeframe that will ultimately govern the case.” Her omnibus order TRUMP INC. — Trump’s massive involvement in the construction of a new Omani city, where his name brand is helping sell multimillion-dollar villas, “has taken his financial stake in one of the world’s most strategically important and volatile regions to a new level, underscoring how his business and his politics intersect,” NYT’s Eric Lipton reports in a deep dive from Yiti, Oman. Complex ethical concerns arise from Trump’s unprecedented role in the project, which puts him in close collaboration with the Omani government and a Saudi firm that’s tight with Riyadh royals. The Trump Organization has pulled in $5 million from the deal already. “This is as blatant as it comes,” says a top Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington lawyer. 2024 WATCH SIREN — “Trump says he will try to unilaterally cut government spending if elected president,” by Semafor’s Shelby Talcott: “Trump is vowing to upend the decades-old law limiting the ability of presidents to unilaterally withhold federal spending if he is elected to another term, setting up a potential constitutional clash with profound implications for the budget and basic workings of American government. In a video reviewed by Semafor ahead of its release, Trump says he will attempt to bring a court challenge to overturn the Impoundment Control Act.” INVESTING EARLY AND OFTEN — Nuestro PAC is relaunching to improve Biden’s performance with Latino voters next year, with plans to spend $37 million, The Messenger’s Adrian Carrasquillo scooped. CHUCK ROCHA and MIKE MADRID are leading the effort, which will focus on reaching Latino voters in the six most crucial Biden-won swing states via digital, mail and radio in English and Spanish. The PAC aims to staunch Democrats’ bleeding with Hispanic voters — especially young, working-class and male voters — and sell them on Biden’s economic accomplishments, avoiding Democrats’ mistake in past years of waiting until late in the cycle. HOW DeSANTIS PAINTED FLORIDA RED — “Gov. Ron DeSantis used secretive panel to flip state Supreme Court,” by WaPo’s Beth Reinhard and Josh Dawsey: Florida Gov. RON “DeSANTIS seized on the unusual retirement of three liberal justices at once to quickly remake the court. He did so with the help of a secretive panel led by LEONARD LEO … that quietly vetted judicial nominees in an Orlando conference room three weeks before the governor’s inauguration. … [It] was one of the earliest examples of what would become a signature tactic of his administration — testing the boundaries of executive authority, while defying protocols aimed at transparency and accountability.” COMING SOON — NewsNation will host a town hall with ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. on June 28 with South Carolina and New Hampshire voters.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | POLICY CORNER A NEW CONSERVATIVE TARGET — Republicans are taking aim at the long-standing, bipartisan “Housing First” federal approach to homelessness, which has prioritized getting people housing for the past couple of decades, NYT’s Jason DeParle reports. Prominent conservatives now favor a different approach, one that would force homeless people to demonstrate sobriety and/or a job to receive housing. These critics say the Housing First status quo has failed to curb homelessness. And the dispute could lead to a congressional funding skirmish. ANTITRUST THE PROCESS — “DOJ to expand scrutiny of bank mergers,” by Josh Sisco and Victoria Guida: “A top antitrust official put banks on notice Tuesday that the Justice Department is expanding its scrutiny of mergers, looking at a broader scope of criteria and further empowering independent regulators to take the lead. … The new approach is sure to put the banking sector on high alert.” MORE POLITICS ONE YEAR LATER — As we approach a year since Roe v. Wade was overturned, the GOP is still struggling to define how far it will go on abortion policy, caught between the desire to fulfill a long-standing goal and reward the base and the need to appeal to moderates, NYT’s Katie Glueck reports. Activists, lawmakers and strategists are often at odds, leading to intra-party clashes at statehouses and in Washington. On the flip side: “Senate Democrats plan abortion-rights push to mark one year without Roe v. Wade,” by NBC’s Ali Vitali: It’s “an attempt to put Republicans on defense on the hot-button issue, even though the legislation itself isn’t expected to pass.”
| | | | A message from Meta:   | | | THE WHITE HOUSE WHAT BIDEN IS UP TO TODAY — On the West Coast, Biden is diving into artificial intelligence today as he meets with experts and notable Big Tech critics about the technology poised to remake the world, the L.A. Times’ Queenie Wong previews. Today’s plans follow big Silicon Valley fundraisers Biden attended yesterday. “Biden’s meetings with AI researchers and tech executives underscore how the president is engaging both sides as his campaign tries to attract wealthy donors while his administration examines the risks of the fast-growing technology.” Behind the scenes: “From ChatGPT to executive orders: Inside the White House’s urgent push to regulate AI,” by CNN’s Jeremy Diamond: “Steered by the White House chief of staff’s office, senior administration officials have been meeting two to three times a week to advance AI policy work since earlier this spring, tackling AI on multiple fronts, from misinformation and cybersecurity to economic transformation and equity.” GOING GREEN — The White House has unveiled a nearly $1 billion initiative for climate upgrades to federal buildings, WaPo’s Maxine Joselow and Vanessa Montalbano scooped: “As one of the country’s largest landlords, the GSA plans to use $975 million from the Inflation Reduction Act to install clean-energy technologies — including heat pumps, solar panels and batteries — in federal buildings nationwide. Twenty-eight buildings will achieve net-zero emissions and 100 buildings will become all-electric.” CONGRESS BIPARTISAN BLIP, PART I — Sens. JONI ERNST (R-Iowa) and DEBBIE STABENOW (D-Mich.) are introducing legislation to try to block China from buying some U.S. farmland on national security grounds, NBC’s Courtney Kube scooped. BIPARTISAN BLIP, PART II — Sens. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.) and CHUCK GRASSLEY (R-Iowa) are introducing legislation to restrict retired military members from working for foreign countries, WaPo’s Craig Whitlock reports. STOPPING THE OVERTIME CLOCK — With JULIE SU’s Labor secretary nomination in peril with Senate moderates, House progressives are pausing their drive to get the White House to change the overtime threshold via executive order, Supercreator’s Michael Jones scooped. The Congressional Progressive Caucus doesn’t want to damage Su’s chances, sources tell him — though publicly, the CPC says it’s not true. THE BEZOS BEE IN BERNIE’S BONNET — “Bernie Sanders launches Senate investigation into Amazon labor practices,” by WaPo’s Lauren Kaori Gurley and Caroline O’Donovan
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don’t miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | JUDICIARY SQUARE KNOWING EDWARD BLUM — “The Man Behind the Case Seeking to End Affirmative Action,” by WSJ’s Douglas Belkin: “As the Supreme Court prepares a decision that could curtail a half-century of race-conscious affirmative action in college admissions, the man who drove the case sits in his home office in Maine searching for the next lawsuit. … When asked to describe himself, Blum says he is a former marathon runner with an unusually high degree of tenacity and tolerance for discomfort.” PLAYBOOKERS MEDIA MOVES — Maegan Vazquez is now a politics breaking news reporter for WaPo. She previously was a White House reporter for CNN and is an Independent Journal Review alum. … The Hill has added Ella Lee as a staff writer on its courts team and Taylor Giorno as a business and lobbying reporter. Lee previously was a politics reporter at USA Today and is a Chicago Sun-Times and Chicago Tribune alum. Giorno previously was a money-in-politics reporter at OpenSecrets. TRANSITIONS — Former Air Force chief of staff David Goldfein is now a principal at WestExec Advisors. … Jesse O’Connell will be chief advancement officer at the American Council on Education. He previously was SVP for education at the Center for American Progress. … Brian Zuzenak is now a strategic partner at the Pivot Group. He previously was a partner at Moxie Media and is a Hillary Clinton and DCCC alum. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.
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