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Presented by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers: POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the afternoon in Washington. | | | | |  | | By Garrett Ross | | | |  | THE CATCH-UP | | | SPECIAL ELECTION DAY IN NY — New York’s 3rd Congressional District is voting to replace GEORGE SANTOS with either Democrat TOM SUOZZI or Republican MAZI PILIP today as snow covers the area. Our colleagues have all you need to know to watch today’s results like a pro:
Turnout is looking light: “So far turnout in NY-03 is very low — ‘nothing’ is the exact quote — Queens turnout is a quarter of 2022 by 10 am and Nassau even lower,” Jacqueline Sweet reports. “Still snowing on LI but should be better later so it could change but it’s looking like an old fashioned snow day, schools all out.” Follow along here with our colleagues for live updates and results
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Democrats are hoping to work around Speaker Mike Johnson to pass the national security supplemental. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | THE HOUSE CALL — In the wee hours of the morning, the Senate cleared the borderless national security supplemental bill, sending the legislation on to the House, where Speaker MIKE JOHNSON greeted it by promptly tossing the bill into the proverbial trash can. Now, the real jockeying begins. Democrats want to find a way around Johnson by pushing for a discharge petition to allow them to force a floor vote on the Senate-passed bill. “Critically, though, Democrats need a majority of House members to sign on, including a handful of House Republicans,” our colleagues Olivia Beavers, Anthony Adragna, Jordain Carney and Nicholas Wu report. However, a Johnson aide who was granted anonymity to speak candidly told POLITICO today that the speaker won’t be “boxed” into the Senate plan. Instead, House Republicans hope to find their own remedy to address the national security and border issues — with Johnson facing intense pressure from conservatives to oppose any Ukraine funding and keep H.R. 2, a House-passed border bill on the table. “He's saying the current bill won't be processed in the House and why,” the aide said. Dept. of saying the quiet part out loud: “The good news is that Johnson has publicly stated that we’ve got to do something on the border before we do anything like that,” Rep. ANDY BIGGS (R-Ariz.), a member of the House Freedom Caucus, said on “The John Fredericks Show” Tuesday morning. But Biggs was quick to note: “If it were to get to the floor, it would pass — let’s just be frank about that.” Meanwhile, the White House is ramping up its efforts to push the House to send the legislation to Biden’s desk. “According to a talking points memo and messaging memo obtained by POLITICO, the administration is arguing that Iran has sided with Russia in its war on Ukraine and has long supported Hamas,” our colleague Alexander Ward reports. “To not pass the legislation that gives aid to both Ukraine and Israel, then, would be to make life easier for Tehran.” From the memo: “A House vote against American national security is a vote to appease and empower the Iranian regime. Period,” the White House’s ANDREW BATES writes. Mood music: “A new report says the world faces a ‘dangerous decade’ as instability and military spending rise,” by AP’s Danica Kirka Another headache for Johnson: The impeachment effort against DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS is on thin ice as the wintery weather makes things tricky for members to get back to the chamber today. “GOP leadership is expected to hold a vote on another matter first in the 6:30p vote series to gauge absences. If there are too many absences, Republicans may have to go into recess and delay the vote — a risky move given the New York special election is tonight,” CNN’s Manu Raju reports. MORE BAD NEWS — WSJ’s Isabella Simonetti (@thesimonetti): “CBS News is being hit with layoffs today, according to people familiar. Roughly 20 people including some in its D.C. bureau. Part of larger layoffs at Paramount affecting about 800 employees.” Good Tuesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at gross@politico.com.
| | | | A message from American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers: EPA is set to finalize a regulation designed to end the sale of new gas and diesel cars regardless of what drivers want, need, and can afford. Polling shows that Americans think the Biden EPA is moving too far, too fast. President Biden: Stop the EPA’s car ban. Vehicle policies can’t just work for some of us. They should work for all of us. | | | | | 7 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW | | |  A new inflation reading could add some more pressure on President Joe Biden as the fight against inflation continues. | Evan Vucci/AP | 1. INFLATION NATION: A new reading of inflation for the month of January offered a bit of a return to Earth for the previously soaring economic outlook, indicating that the fight against inflation has yet to be won. “The Labor Department said the Consumer Price Index in January was up by 3.1 percent from a year earlier. That was a decline from 3.4 percent in December but higher than the 2.9 percent that economists projected in a Bloomberg survey,” our colleague Zachary Warmbrodt writes. The new reading “could put pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer as it fights to tamp down inflation, drawing out a potential drag on consumers and businesses. … Republicans are focusing their economic critiques on the persistence of higher prices, even if cost increases have been decelerating. Inflation has risen faster than average weekly earnings since Biden was sworn in.” 2. TRUMP TRIAL TIMELINES: Despite reports that Trump would attend the Thursday hearing in Georgia over whether Fulton County DA FANI WILLIS can continue working on the racketeering case against the former president, Trump will actually instead attend a hearing in New York on Thursday to dismiss the criminal charges in the hush money case brought against him by the Manhattan DA, which is scheduled to start in March, per Kyle Cheney. Trump’s advisers told the former president that the New York hearing is more important for him, CNN’s Kristen Holmes reports. In another legal development, Supreme Court Chief Justice JOHN ROBERTS told special counsel JACK SMITH he has until next Tuesday to respond to Trump’s request to keep his federal criminal election-subversion trial on hold while he tries to persuade the Supreme Court to scuttle it entirely on the grounds of presidential immunity, Josh Gerstein and Kyle write. 3. MIXED MESSAGING: While Trump crusades to paint NIKKI HALEY as a left-leaning Republican on the border, it’s a “portrait nearly unrecognizable to many who knew her as governor,” NYT’s Jazmine Ulloa writes. “Trump’s attacks are complicated by her record as a staunch conservative on the issue, they said, even as she maintained support for legal immigration when her party shifted its focus toward more extreme immigration cuts. … “From the time she entered politics in 2004, Ms. Haley has held views on immigration that have remained largely consistent, according to a review of her past statements, legislative record and interviews with both supporters and detractors. She has long been in favor of improving legal pathways to the United States, while aggressively curbing illegal ones. And she often frames her beliefs in her own origins.” Ad wars: Haley released a new attack ad against Trump today, framing her argument around the “chaos” that follows the former president. “The ad, overlaid with videos of Trump speaking and meeting with Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN, lists the potential results of a second Trump administration,” Matt Berg writes. From the ad’s voiceover: “A 10 percent across-the-board tax increase. More record-breaking debt. A Russian victory that will bring more war. With a world on fire and a crisis at home, with Trump it’s just more chaos.”
| | | | YOUR VIP PASS TO THE MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE: Dive into the heart of global security with POLITICO's Global Playbook at the 2024 Munich Security Conference. Gain exclusive insights and in-depth analysis as author Suzanne Lynch navigates the crucial discussions, key players and emerging trends that will shape the international security landscape. Subscribe now to Global Playbook and stay informed. | | | | | 4. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: Negotiators for Israel and Hamas are “making progress toward another cease-fire and hostage-release deal, officials said Tuesday, as negotiations went on and Israel threatened to expand its offensive to Gaza’s southern edge, where some 1.4 million Palestinians have sought refuge,” AP’s Samy Magdy, Najib Jobain and Tia Goldenberg report from Cairo. “The talks continued in Egypt a day after Israeli forces rescued two captives in Rafah, the packed southern town along the Egyptian border, in a raid that killed at least 74 Palestinians, according to local health officials, and caused heavy destruction. The operation offered a glimpse of what a full-blown ground advance might look like.” 5. BEATING THE PRESS: KARINE JEAN-PIERRE’s presence as the face of the White House comms shop was notable in the early days of the administration given that she was the first Black and openly gay press secretary in the nation’s history. But lately, Jean-Pierre is sharing the spotlight at briefings and gaggles with JOHN KIRBY, a former Pentagon and State Department spox. “The White House attributes Mr. Kirby’s larger role to the flurry of international news and says he will brief less often once the Middle East crisis ebbs. But the perception in Washington that President Biden has allowed Mr. Kirby, who is white, to upstage a Black woman as the face of his White House has turned their double act into a third-rail subject,” NYT’s Michael Grynbaum writes. 6. CALLING LONDON: “Will Voters in San Francisco Go for a Different Kind of Mayor?” by NYT’s Heather Knight: “If [MARK] FARRELL is successful in ousting [San Francisco Mayor LONDON] BREED again — this time through the action of voters, not of his fellow politicians — it will indicate that San Francisco has moved from the left to much more centrist politics. That trend has already seemed apparent after the recalls of the city’s far-left school board members and its district attorney, as well as the elections of some moderate members of the Board of Supervisors.” 7. DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS: “China’s Shipyards Are Ready for a Protracted War. America’s Aren’t,” by WSJ’s Niharika Mandhana: “More than half of the world’s commercial shipbuilding output came from China last year — making it the top global shipmaker by a wide margin. The once-prolific shipyards of the West that helped forge empires, expand trade and win wars have shriveled. Europe accounts for just 5% of the world’s output, while the U.S. contributes next to nothing.”
| | | | CONGRESS OVERDRIVE: Since day one, POLITICO has been laser-focused on Capitol Hill, serving up the juiciest Congress coverage. Now, we’re upping our game to ensure you’re up to speed and in the know on every tasty morsel and newsy nugget from inside the Capitol Dome, around the clock. Wake up, read Playbook AM, get up to speed at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report, and fuel your nightly conversations with Inside Congress in the evening. Plus, never miss a beat with buzzy, real-time updates throughout the day via our Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | John Cornyn had time for Ken Paxton today. John Podesta sold his Kalorama home for $8,200,000. SPOTTED: Bob Corker walking down County Line in Palm Beach yesterday morning. We’re told Corker is basing himself in Palm Beach for a couple of months and spending time with family. TRANSITION — Former Joint Chiefs Chair Mark Milley is joining the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs as a Charles and Marie Robertson Visiting Professor and Visiting Lecturer. Read the announcement BONUS BIRTHDAYS: Dave Dorey … Peter Laudeman of U.S. Wheat Associates Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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