New sanctions, same Ukraine anxiety

From: POLITICO Playbook PM - Friday Feb 23,2024 06:23 pm
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Playbook PM

By Eli Okun

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THE CATCH-UP

IVF FALLOUT — The NRSC today sent a memo to GOP Senate candidates urging them “to clearly and concisely reject efforts by the government to restrict” in vitro fertilization, warning that Democrats would try to use the recent Alabama Supreme Court ruling “for electoral gain.” Right on cue, everyone from TIM SHEEHY to DAVID McCORMICK to KARI LAKE to BERNIE MORENO came out in favor of IVF.

JUST GONNA LEAVE THIS RIGHT HERE — “Biden, 81, says the key to his marriage is ‘good sex’: How Joe infuriates Jill, his wife of 47 years, with VERY risqué joke to staff about their private life (even though they aren’t shy about PDA),” by the Daily Mail’s Emily Goodin — drawing on reporting from Katie Rogers’ new book, “American Woman” ($30)

WASHINGTON, DC - FEBRUARY 23: Framed by television camera lights, U.S. President Joe Biden speaks to governors from across the country during an event in the East Room of the White House on February 23, 2024 in Washington, DC. The state and territory leaders are in Washington for the annual National Governors Association Winter Meeting. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

President Joe Biden's new Russia sanctions may end up being more bark than bite. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

TO RUSSIA, WITH LOVE — President JOE BIDEN rolled out a fusillade of sanctions against Russia today over the war in Ukraine and dissident ALEXEI NAVALNY’s death — the largest such batch of penalties, totaling almost 600, since Russia invaded two years ago tomorrow.

The sanctions range from price caps to Russian businesses to government officials to companies in other countries that have assisted the Russian military. And though most were long planned to coincide with the anniversary of the war’s beginning, several new ones were added in the past week to punish Moscow for Navalny’s death, including individuals at his penal colony in Siberia, Jonathan Lemire and Matt Berg report.

“We in the United States are going to continue to ensure that [Russian President VLADIMIR] PUTIN pays a price for his aggression abroad and repression at home,” Biden said to applause from the nation’s governors this morning. “We can’t walk away now. And that’s what Putin is betting on.”

But the sanctions may end up being more bark than bite. “U.S. officials privately concede [they] are likely to land a limited blow,” WSJ’s Ian Talley and Vivian Salama report. In reality, the Biden administration lacks great options to really hamper Russia without risking global economic fallout or significant retaliation from Moscow. Much of the new batch is devoted to stopping actors who have evaded sanctions that are already in place.

The Ukraine aid package in Congress would make a bigger impact, experts say — and Biden tried to keep the pressure up this morning, warning House Republicans that history would never forget their failure to act. But as WSJ’s Molly Ball captures at the Conservative Political Action Conference, DONALD TRUMP has helped transform a huge portion of the GOP into opposing more military aid to Kyiv, which has kept Speaker MIKE JOHNSON from putting the national security supplemental (which would almost certainly pass) up for a vote.

Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER, on the ground in Lviv, tried to keep the pressure up today. “The United States right now is at a turning point — an inflection point. If we don’t stand by our allies, allies around the world will shirk and move away from us,” he warned. Drawing some parallels to 1916 and 1938, he also addressed Johnson directly: “History is looking down upon you, looking over your shoulder. Rise to the occasion.”

The step back: “Will the U.S. Abandon Ukraine?” by WSJ’s Yaroslav Trofimov: “Putin’s wager appears to be paying off, at least for now, as Moscow has successfully inserted itself into America’s culture wars.”

CASH DASH — IKE PERLMUTTER is backing a new super PAC, Right for America, that will be led by SERGIO GOR and boost Trump with ads in the general election, Axios’ Mike Allen reports. … Meanwhile, NIKKI HALEY’s campaign isn’t backing down: It’ll splash a seven-figure advertising campaign across national cable and digital before Super Tuesday, per Natalie Allison.

Happy Friday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.

 

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9 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

FILE - Wisconsin's Republican Assembly Speaker Robin Vos talks to reporters at the state Capitol, Feb. 15, 2022, in Madison, Wis. Vos, the Republican lawmaker who forced the Universities of Wisconsin to reduce diversity positions, called Tuesday, Dec. 19, 2023, for an in-depth review of diversity initiatives across state government, making good on his promise that he had only begun to dismantle equity and inclusion efforts in the state. (AP Photo/Andy Manis, File)

The people behind a primary challenge to Wisconsin state Assembly Speaker Robin Vos are coming under criminal scrutiny. | Andy Manis, File/AP Photo

1. HEADS UP: Trump’s Save America fundraising committee and several Wisconsin Republicans have been referred for felony criminal prosecution by the state’s bipartisan ethics commission, which concluded that they broke the law in funding a 2022 primary campaign against state Assembly Speaker ROBIN VOS, WisPolitics scooped. Vos’ challenger, a state representative and others are alleged to have committed felonies to take down Vos, who got on Trump’s hit list after he refused to help overturn the 2020 election. The ethics commission decided not to charge MIKE LINDELL, whom they also investigated.

2. WHAT TO EXPECT FROM SOTU: The White House is weighing a focus on food prices and “shrinkflation” in Biden’s State of the Union speech, but it’s torn over how effective — or risky — that might be, Meredith Lee Hill and Adam Cancryn report. Recent drafts of his speech have included a reference to it, as Biden seeks to tar corporate greed as one of the principal drivers of inflation. He’s been “aggressively testing out the messaging,” especially as sticky grocery prices have frustrated consumers. But “Biden is not expected to take any immediate unilateral action” on policy.

3. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: More cracks are forming between allies Israel and the U.S. Today, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN declared Israeli settlements in the West Bank to be “inconsistent with international law,” breaking from a policy position that his predecessor MIKE POMPEO had staked out. And Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU for the first time laid out a formal vision for Gaza after the war — one that diverges from America’s plan and was quickly panned by Palestinians, AP’s Wafaa Shurafa and Bassem Mroue report. Meanwhile, cease-fire talks sought a breakthrough in Paris, while the carnage continued in Gaza: Another 68 people, at least some of them civilians, were reportedly killed by Israel since last night.

4. RECESSION RECEDING: Economists are painting a brighter picture of America’s outlook this year, raising projections to 2.1% growth, in the latest monthly survey from Bloomberg’s Augusta Saraiva and Kyungjin Yoo. That’s up from 1.5% in January predictions. Particularly on the strength of consumer spending, the labor market and easing inflation, the economy now has just a 40% chance of dipping into recession within the next year in these experts’ eyes. That’s the lowest probability economists have given since the middle of 2022.

5. THE AGE-OLD QUESTION: “Biden’s cheat sheets at fundraisers worry donors,” by Axios’ Hans Nichols: “Biden has been using notecards in closed-door fundraisers, calling on prescreened donors and then consulting his notes to provide detailed answers … The staged Q&A sessions have left some donors wondering whether Biden can withstand the rigors of a presidential campaign, let alone potential debates … Biden advisers say the president is given notecards only for very detailed and technical questions, and say he frequently does spontaneous Q&As.”

 

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6. BIG BLOW FOR LOCAL NEWS: “WAMU lays off 15 staffers, shuts down DCist,” by Axios’ Sara Fischer: “The shift away from digital publishing will allow WAMU to focus on its core radio products, as well as new digital audio opportunities like podcasts and live events … 10 new positions — mostly audio specialists and producers — will be added.”

7. DOCU-DRAMA: Trump’s lawyers mounted an aggressive push late last night to try to junk his federal criminal classified documents case, Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney report. Their multiple motions — including, again, the contention that he’s immune from prosecution for things he did while president — are now up to U.S. District Judge AILEEN CANNON, a Trump nominee whose scheduling decision next week will likely determine whether he faces trial this year (or at all).

8. ANNALS OF INFLUENCE: The Center for AI Policy and Center for AI Safety are taking the artificial intelligence lobbying battle to Washington, urging policymakers to take action to prevent worst-case scenarios, Brendan Bordelon reports. It’s a big new step from the camp of AI doomsayers, with funding from billionaires DUSTIN MOSKOVITZ’s Open Philanthropy and JAAN TALLINN’s Lightspeed Grants. But opponents say the big-money focus on existential fears is “raising barriers to entry for smaller AI firms and shifting attention away from more immediate and concrete problems with the technology.”

Another new entrant on the scene: “Crypto PACs poised to splash cash in key 2024 races,” by Jasper Goodman: “An $80 million cloud of crypto campaign cash is hanging over the battle for Congress. … [A] trio of affiliated pro-crypto super PACs are poised to be among the top-spending outside groups in this election cycle.”

9. SCOTUS WATCH: “While eyes are on Trump, Supreme Court conservatives prepare to rewrite the rulebook,” by CNN’s Joan Biskupic: “Supreme Court conservatives are accelerating their moves to overhaul the way the federal government protects Americans, whether from air pollution or unfair financial practices. Although the decisions won’t be released until later this year, the frustration of liberal justices was palpable this week, as their sharp remarks from the bench drew attention to the pattern of the right-wing majority to diminish environmental, public health and consumer safeguards.”

 

CONGRESS OVERDRIVE: Since day one, POLITICO has been laser-focused on Capitol Hill, serving up the juiciest Congress coverage. Now, we’re upping our game to ensure you’re up to speed and in the know on every tasty morsel and newsy nugget from inside the Capitol Dome, around the clock. Wake up, read Playbook AM, get up to speed at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report, and fuel your nightly conversations with Inside Congress in the evening. Plus, never miss a beat with buzzy, real-time updates throughout the day via our Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

Lloyd Austin will face the music at a House committee hearing Thursday on his hospitalization.

Cassidy Hutchinson says she has proof that Tony Bobulinski is wrong.

Dick Gephardt helped pitch Joe Manchin on not running for president.

SPOTTED at the bar at Estuary at the Conrad hotel yesterday: Chris Christie and Larry Hogan chatting … Jay Ashcroft and John Ashcroft nearby.

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Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.

Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook PM misidentified who made comments about the likelihood of a government shutdown in an interview with CBS’ Major Garrett. It was Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.).

 

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