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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Matt Berg, Alexander Ward and Nahal Toosi | |  Alexei Navalny’s death has presented an opportunity for Democratic lawmakers to call on Congress to send a foreign aid package to Ukraine. | Ian Langsdon/AFP via Getty Images | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt PROGRAMMING NOTE: We’ll be off this Monday for Presidents Day but will be back in your inboxes on Tuesday. With help from Joe Gould, Phelim Kine, Maggie Miller and Daniel Lippman Russia says imprisoned opposition leader ALEXEI NAVALNY is dead. Now, the Biden administration is facing pressure to show the Kremlin that it’s unacceptable to kill your critics. In 2021, President JOE BIDEN told reporters that if Navalny died, the consequences for Russia would be “devastating.” Asked directly about that today, the president said his remark was three years ago, and they’ve faced “a hell of a lot of consequences” since then. Biden directly blamed Russia for Navalny’s death and said: “We're contemplating what else can be done,” adding “We're looking at a whole number of options.” NatSec Daily spoke with several lawmakers, officials and experts around the world to deduce the Biden administration’s probable course of action. The most likely response will be a new set of sanctions targeting those directly responsible for Navalny’s death, said ANDREA KENDALL-TAYLOR, a former U.S. intelligence official and Russia expert. “What the Biden administration should do, however, is to turn up and apply more consistent pressure on the Putin regime,” she argued. That could include “more efforts in the information domain to expose the regime’s incompetence or amplify the discontent inside Russia that the war in Ukraine is creating.” Rep. JASON CROW (D-Colo.) said the White House must enforce sanctions already in place, and Idaho Sen. JIM RISCH, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee's top Republican, said the natural way forward is to put even more sanctions on Russia. Both spoke to us while attending the Munich Security Conference in Germany. (Say hi to Alex if you're there!) It’s possible that the U.S. uses the Global Magnitsky Act, which slaps economic penalties on people and entities around the world strictly for human rights violations and corruption, said a former Senate Foreign Relations Committee staffer. Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO KURT VOLKER said that’s a sensible option. But “sanctions don’t feel enough,” the former staffer added. “The gravity of his death is much heavier and a clear symbol of Putin’s ability to act with complete impunity.” Rep. BILL KEATING (D-Mass.), a member of the House Foreign Affairs and Armed Services Committees, said he had been urged in the past by Navalny’s team to “target the oligarchs that live there” with sanctions, because that’s “the key to weakening Putin domestically.” Keating also called for the U.S. and Europe to seize frozen Russian assets and provide them to Ukraine to help them rebuild their infrastructure, a measure the Massachusetts Democrat introduced in the House last month. Navalny’s death also presented an opportunity for Democratic lawmakers to call on Congress to send a foreign aid package to Ukraine. The Biden administration has blamed lawmakers who have blocked the package for Ukraine’s struggles on the battlefield. "Pass the supplemental. That’s it. Let’s destroy [Putin's] Army,” Crow added. “The Ukrainians know how to do that, so let’s help them do it.” It’s looking like Navalny’s death could push legislation forward. In a fiery statement today, Speaker MIKE JOHNSON, who has staunchly opposed the Senate’s $95 billion national security package to fund Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel, called on Washington to cut off Moscow’s ability to fund its war against Ukraine. “In the coming days, as international leaders are meeting in Munich, we must be clear that Putin will be met with united opposition,” he said. As Washington waits to see how the Biden administration will react, one thing is certain after NatSec Daily talked with numerous experts: There’s no replacement for Navalny. “There are no opposition leaders anymore,” Ukrainian parliamentarian YEHOR CHERNIEV, deputy chair of the Committee on National Security, Defence and Intelligence, told us. Read: Biden says there’s no mistake: ‘Putin is responsible for Navalny’s death’ by Alex and JONATHAN LEMIRE
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Today's military landscape features systems and platforms engineered for standalone operations. Embracing our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is at the forefront of defense innovation, weaving connections between defense and digital domains. Learn More. | | | | | HAASS’ PROPOSAL: Last month, RICHARD HAASS, the former longtime head of the Council on Foreign Relations, approached top Biden administration officials with an audacious plan for changing the politics around the Israel-Hamas war: Distance Biden from Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU by making his case directly to the Israeli people. Given that Netanyahu’s military campaign was hurting U.S. credibility abroad and the president’s popularity at home, Haass proposed that Biden do so by going to Israel to deliver a speech — possibly to the Knesset, the nation’s parliament, Jonathan and Nahal report. Though Haass didn’t speak directly to Biden, he did pitch a Knesset-like speech to, among others, Vice President KAMALA HARRIS, Blinken and national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN, two people familiar with the discussions told our colleagues. The senior officials reacted coolly to his proposal, and a White House official confirmed that there had been no discussion of scheduling a trip to Israel. “It’s increasingly clear that the United States does not have a partner with this Israeli prime minister or government. We’re paying a price for that,” Haass said in a statement. EGYPT’S RAFAH PLAN: Cairo is setting up an area near Gaza’s southern border to accommodate Palestinian civilians in case Israel invades the city of Rafah, Reuters reports. Egypt denied that it’s making any such preparations, but four people familiar described it to Reuters as a contingency plan. One of the people told the outlet that Egypt is optimistic that a cease-fire could be reached in time to avoid a potential Rafah invasion. The Biden administration has warned Israel that a military operation in the city, where over a million Palestinian civilians are sheltering, would be “a disaster” without a plan to protect civilians. But Netanyahu today pushed back on international pressure to tame Israel’s actions. “We will fight until complete victory and this includes a powerful action also in Rafah after we allow the civilian population to leave the battle zones,” he said in a statement, per The Wall Street Journal’s SABRINA SIDDIQUI and DION NISSENBAUM. Elsewhere in southern Gaza today, Israeli forces took control of Nasser hospital, arresting 20 people it said took part in Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack, The New York Times’ VICTORIA KIM and ADAM RASGON report. Five patients at the hospital died, according to Gazan officials. MOSCOW’S DISINFO: The Kremlin has been attempting to undermine Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY through a disinformation campaign, according to documents obtained by The Washington Post’s CATHERINE BELTON. One example: Moscow had been trying to orchestrate a split between Zelenskyy and his top commander Gen. VALERY ZALUZHNY for months: “We need to strengthen the conflict between Zaluzhny and Zelensky, along the lines of ‘he intends to fire him,’” a Kremlin political strategist wrote last year, per internal Russian documents. Moscow ordered political strategists to use thousands of social media posts and hundreds of fake news articles to push the narrative that the Ukrainian leader “is hysterical and weak. … He fears that he will be pushed aside, therefore he is getting rid of the dangerous ones,” the documents read. UAE RESPONDS: A United Arab Emirates official confirmed to NatSec Daily that some, but not all, U.S. military operations there are restricted on a case-by-case basis, requiring approval from UAE forces before launching. The confirmation comes after LARA SELIGMAN, Alex and Nahal reported on those restrictions, typically when the mission includes striking Iranian proxies in the region. The UAE declined to comment at the time of publication. The official, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the government’s views, said the UAE had three main reasons for these conditions, all stemming from anger at America’s perceived lack of commitment to the wealthy Gulf Arab nation. Among the stated reasons, the UAE is mad that the administration didn’t approve of a F-35 sale and responded meekly to a massive Houthi attack on the Middle Eastern country two years ago. Now there’s fear that if the U.S. abandons the UAE altogether, it leaves the nation “exposed and vulnerable” to attacks by the Houthis and, potentially, other Iran-backed actors, the official said. BEIJING MEETING IN MUNICH: Blinken met with Chinese Foreign Minister WANG YI today on the sidelines of Munich today (as scooped by our own PHELIM KINE late Thursday.) The State Department readout was a bare bones replay of recent past statements outlining some of the key irritants between the two countries. Blinken and Wang exchanged their respective positions on Taiwan, tensions in the South China Sea, the chaos in the Middle East and Beijing’s “support for Russia’s war against Ukraine, including support to the Russian defense industrial base,” State spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER said in the readout. The point of the meeting wasn’t progress on any of the many issues that vex the U.S.-China relationship, but to maintain the fragile cooling in rancor from Biden’s meeting with Chinese leader XI JINPING in November. Miller gave no fresh hints of a possible Biden-Xi call in the coming months (which the administration teased last month), but touted “consultations and high-level meetings in key areas in the coming months,” without elaborating. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring VICTORIA SAMSON, chief director of space security and stability for Secure World Foundation, a nonpartisan think tank focused on the peaceful use of outer space. After breaking down Russia’s anti-satellite capabilities or NASA’s soft power for us, Samson likes to unwind with an Old Fashioned at Jack Rose in Adams Morgan, where all the stuff is top notch, she said. In actuality, she’s usually “drinking a bourbon and Coke Zero on my couch, catching up on TV.” We at NatSec Daily admire that vibe, and often find ourselves in a similar situation. It’s called self-care. Cheers, Victoria! IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | | | DON’S PAST PRAISE: GOP presidential candidate NIKKI HALEY slammed DONALD TRUMP for his past praise of Putin following news of Navalny’s death, our own OLIVIA ALAFRIZ reports. “Putin did this. The same Putin who Donald Trump praises and defends,” Haley tweeted this morning. “The same Trump who said: ‘In all fairness to Putin, you’re saying he killed people. I haven’t seen that.’” The former president made those comments in 2015, when he pushed back against the notion that Putin had killed journalists. Trump also praised Putin’s leadership, describing him as “a strong leader.” Since then, Trump has called Putin “pretty smart,” and welcomed Putin’s praise of him, telling NBC’s KRISTEN WELKER in September 2023, “I like that he said that.” FORPOL VIEWS: We at NatSec Daily have been saying that 2024 is shaping up to be something of a foreign policy election, and a poll published today found that most Americans view current global conflicts as important to both the U.S. and themselves personally. Fifty-nine percent of Americans said the war between Russia and Ukraine is important to them, according to the Pew Research Center poll. Tensions between China and Taiwan are also important to 57 percent of respondents. And the Israel-Hamas war is personally important to 65 percent of respondents.
| | | STRIKE BACK: The Biden administration carried out a cyberattack on an Iranian military ship deployed to collect intelligence as part of the effort to respond to the drone attacks in Jordan that led to the death of three service members, NBC News’ COURTNEY KUBE and CAROL LEE reported Thursday night. The report cited information on the attack from three unnamed U.S. officials. However, the Biden administration has been tight-lipped about the alleged cyber operation, an area of U.S. policy that is typically kept firmly classified. Spokespersons for the National Security Council, the DOD, the National Security Agency, U.S. Cyber Command and the Defense Intelligence Agency all declined to comment on the story when asked about it by our own MAGGIE MILLER. The inclusion of a cyberattack as part of the overall effort to hit back at Iranian proxy groups who carried out the drone attacks was alluded to by Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN earlier this month, who said the U.S. strikes would be “multi-tiered.” Lt. Gen. CHARLES MOORE, former deputy commander of U.S. Cyber Command, told Maggie that while he could not go into specifics around the type of cyberattacks the White House might have considered as a response, he “would be very surprised if cyber options were not incorporated.” “We are at a point of maturation in the DOD where synchronizing kinetic / non-kinetic operations is becoming more of the norm and not something unique,” Moore said.
| | | |   | | | | | UKRAINE-GERMANY PACT: Germany will provide long-term military support and training to Ukraine "to fully restore" the country's territorial integrity under an agreement signed between the leaders of both nations today, our own HANS VON DER BURCHARD reports. The 10-page security agreement commits Germany to not only support Ukraine's defense against Russia's invasion "for as long as it takes," but to also assist Kyiv "in building up modern, resilient armed forces to deter any future attack," German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ told reporters. Standing next to Scholz, Zelenskyy said the details of the agreement "are very specific and involve long-term support," which he claimed was a sign that Western allies understood that Ukraine will eventually become a NATO member. Read: Why Russia won’t have its anti-satellite weapon in space anytime soon by our own ERIN BANCO and JOE GOULD
| | CROWS-EYE VIEW: Rep. Crow and other Democrats will use “every option available” to get a vote on the national security supplemental to the floor — including using a 10-hour train through Europe to hold Republicans as a captive audience, he told NatSec Daily. During a trip to Kyiv earlier this month, Crow traveled with Reps. MIKE TURNER (R-Ohio), the House Intelligence Chair, FRENCH HILL (R-Ark.), ZACH NUNN (R-Iowa), and ABIGAIL SPANBERGER (D-Va.) to reassure Zelenskyy that Congress will end the dry spell of U.S. aid. The cause he forced them to hear him out on: supporting a discharge petition to bring a vote to the floor. That tool is a long-shot, since it requires a majority of House members to sign on to force a floor vote despite opposition from GOP leaders. At least a few Republicans would have to sign the petition. “I talk with every Republican I can get my hands on whether we're in Ukraine or not about a discharge petition to gauge their response and to see what they're willing to do,” Crow told NatSec Daily, adding that a train ride to Kyiv is the perfect place to have a tough conversation with someone. It’s up to Turner, Hill and Nunn to say whether they’d support such a measure, Crow said. Those lawmakers didn’t respond to NatSec Daily’s request on whether they’d support the measure. Divvying up the Senate package into separate bills, however, is not the right way to do it, Crow argued, since it neglects military and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine and Taiwan. On Thursday, a bipartisan group of lawmakers unveiled an alternative proposal to send military aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan and secure the border. But that package trims billions from the Senate version, focusing on military and forgoing trimming billions in humanitarian and economic aid. That’ll likely deter some Democrats from signing on. “It’s a massive mistake to move a national security supplemental without humanitarian aid,” Crow said. “You cannot achieve true security unless people’s basic needs are being met.” UKRAINE AID DEADLINE: HFAC Chair MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) said Congress ought to pass a supplemental in March to help Kyiv with its planned counter-offensive in April, our own JOE GOULD writes in. Speaking at a Christian Science Monitor breakfast for reporters, McCaul said that Ukrainian plans for that spring push “may have to delay by a month or two depending on how soon this can be put in place. But they can’t negotiate with any strength right now given the position they’re in.” With House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON caught between his party’s Ukraine supporters and skeptics, McCaul said the focus should be on making a “palatable” House bill — as an alternative to the $95 billion foreign aid bill the Senate passed — and that he would be huddling with Johnson on the matter at the upcoming Republican leadership retreat. ICYMI — Behind Biden’s decision to demand humanitarian conditions on military aid by our own JENNIFER HABERKORN Read: Washington rallies for Ukraine aid following Navalny’s death by our own CONNOR O’BRIEN and LARA SELIGMAN
| | | | YOUR VIP PASS TO THE MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE: Dive into the heart of global security with POLITICO's Global Playbook at the 2024 Munich Security Conference. Gain exclusive insights and in-depth analysis as author Suzanne Lynch navigates the crucial discussions, key players and emerging trends that will shape the international security landscape. Subscribe now to Global Playbook and stay informed. | | | | | | | | MORE NAVALNY BACKLASH: Zelenskyy and other prominent people who have been targeted by the Kremlin directly blamed Putin for Navalny’s death, several of our colleagues report. "It is obvious to me: He was killed — like other thousands who were tortured to death because of this one man," Zelenskyy said of the Russian leader, during the meeting with Scholz. YULIA NAVALNAYA, the opposition leader’s wife, was at the Munich Security Conference when the news of her husband's death broke. She had been scheduled to "talk about a better Russia," the event's chair CHRISTOPH HEUSGEN said from the stage. She later said she wasn't sure whether to believe the news coming from Russia, noting the Kremlin often lies. But if it's true, Navalnaya said Putin and his staff "should know they will be punished for what they have done with our country, with our family and with my husband. They will be brought to justice. This day will come soon." British financier and political activist BILL BROWDER, who was himself targeted by the Putin regime, told our colleagues at the Munich summit: “This is not a death, this is a murder.”
| | — Former State Department spokesperson NED PRICE will be the next deputy to Washington’s ambassador to the United Nations, Alex and Nahal report. — LAUREN STOCKWELL has been promoted to be chief of staff for the Office of the DOD Chief Information Officer. She most recently was deputy chief of staff. — JARED ADAMS is now director of strategic communications for the Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering and Chief Technology Officer. He most recently was chief of engagement and communications at ARPA-H. — Colombian Ambassador to the U.S. LUIS GILBERTO MURILLO has been named his country's acting foreign minister. He continues as ambassador.
| | — Editorial Board, The Wall Street Journal: The example of Alexei Navalny’s courage — MIKHAIL KHODORKOVSKY, POLITICO: After Navalny’s death, the West must get tougher with Putin — IVANA STRADNER and JOSH BIRENBAUM, The Telegraph: America must wake up to Putin's lies
| | — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: The future of Pakistan and U.S.-Pakistan relations — Middle East Institute, 10 a.m.: Can Ukraine still win? — Defense Priorities, noon: Can Ukraine still win? Evaluating U.S. interests and policy options — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2 p.m.: Pivotal states: the Iranian challenge — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3:30 p.m.: A conversation with U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD on U.S. diplomacy in the Pacific Islands — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 3:30 p.m.: Tensions in the Middle East: the war in Gaza, Iran and the Houthis — Institute of World Politics, 5 p.m.: Is America teachable? lessons never learned in our dealings with Russia Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, acts with complete impunity everyday. We also thank our producer, Raymond Rapada, who shields us from her authoritarian rule.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Turn the Entire Battlefield into your Field of Vision
Today's military landscape features systems and platforms engineered for standalone operations. Embracing our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is at the forefront of defense innovation, weaving connections between defense and digital domains. Learn More. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
