What to expect when you're expecting election results

From: POLITICO Playbook PM - Tuesday Nov 08,2022 06:29 pm

Nov 08, 2022

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The full blood moon caused by the lunar eclipse is framed by the US Flags blowing in the breeze on the National Mall in Washington, Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022.

The full blood moon caused by the lunar eclipse is framed by U.S. flags on the National Mall on Election Day. | J. David Ake/AP Photo

BOOKMARK THIS ONE — “POLITICO’s hour-by-hour guide to watching election night,” by Steve Shepard

PROGRAMMING NOTES …

— The White House called a lid at 11:25 a.m. So don’t expect to hear from President JOE BIDEN today. Worth noting: The White House has not noticed a post-midterms news conference with Biden, who is leaving for Egypt on Wednesday.

— Speaker NANCY PELOSI will sit down for an exclusive interview with PBS NewsHour’s Judy Woodruff at 6 p.m.

SEND US YOUR SPOTTEDS: Going to an election night watch party? See a celeb in line to vote? Text us at 202-556-3307 or email us: playbook@politico.com .

AS THE TRUMPWORLD TURNS — It’s Election Day 2022. Welcome to the 2024 election.

On Monday, the political world was set ablaze because Trumpworld was abuzz that former President DONALD TRUMP might … could … maybe announce his third run for the Oval Office.

In the end, the big announcement didn’t materialize. At his final pre-midterm rally Monday night outside Dayton, Ohio, Trump offered only another tease — albeit with a date certain this time: “I’m going to be making a very big announcement on Tuesday, Nov. 15 at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Fla.”

The not-quite-announcement prompted sighs of relief from GOP chieftains who have toiled mightily to forestall a Trump entry before the midterms are settled. (Never mind that Trump’s “big announcement” could come smack in the middle of a high-stakes Georgia Senate runoff campaign if things are locked up as tight as some polls suggest.)

But the relief is only temporary. As Jonathan Martin writes in his new column today , both parties are “stumbling into the midterm elections saddled with presidential frontrunners who many in each party dread will be their nominees.”

Indeed, this is one of the biggest trend lines that everyone is tracking as voters stream to the polling booths today.

For the GOP, JMart writes, the unspoken disdain for Trump “stems from realizing their midterm gains will come in part because Trump was out of office and that his nomination could complicate a winnable race two years from now.”

Top Democrats don’t have contempt for the incumbent to stifle. But they have other reasons to hold their tongues, he adds: “To even ponder succession, or grapple with concerns about re-nominating the 82-year-old incumbent, would be to distract from the Trump threat or, worse yet, echo the main line of attack the right makes on Biden.”

Some around the president have long insisted a Trump 2024 candidacy would only make it more likely for Biden to follow suit. And while his political team has done the spadework to prepare for that possibility, aides also balk at the notion that Trump’s decision will force his hand.

As one aide told Playbook: “He will run because he believes there’s more important work to be done.”

Here’s what New Hampshire GOP Gov. CHRIS SUNUNU had to say about Trump’s forthcoming announcement this morning: “I don’t think anyone really cares, and he does not clear the field. … Anyone who thinks it’s a smart idea to announce a potential presidential bid after the election but before Christmas, it’s just the worst time you could possibly do it. My sense is the former president needs better advisers if that’s really what his strategy is going to be.” ( h/t Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser )

By tomorrow, we’ll have some idea of how each presidential power is emerging from this contentious midterm season — we’re tracking Trump’s endorsed candidates and whatever Dems come away with will reflect largely on Biden’s shimmer.

And Jennifer Rubin, who has been a staunch Biden supporter, has quite the take in her WaPo column today: “Trump is losing steam. That’s reason for Biden to bow out in 2024”

MAJOR DEM DONOR NEWS — “Dem megadonor’s crypto exchange forced to sell as liquidity concerns grow,” by Sam Sutton: “The global crypto exchange Binance has agreed to acquire Democratic Party megadonor SAM BANKMAN-FRIED’s crypto exchange FTX after the company was bludgeoned by a severe liquidity crunch over the past week. … FTX’s sudden downfall — which Bankman-Fried said won’t affect its U.S. subsidiary FTX US — is hitting the crypto ecosystem after the 30-year-old billionaire spent roughly $40 million on super PACs and political campaigns before the midterm elections.”

Good Tuesday afternoon. Send me your last-minute midterm hot takes: gross@politico.com .

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ACROSS AMERICA

Here’s how the major news orgs are covering Election Day:

— NYT: “Races Teeter on a Razor’s Edge Across the Country”

— WaPo: “Control of Congress at stake as voters head to polls”

— WSJ: “Voters Head to the Polls With Control of Congress at Stake”

— POLITICO: “Republicans head into Election Day confident of a ‘red wave’”

— AP: “Election scrutiny high, but no big hitches as voting begins” … Live updates

And we’ve got a roundup of the live updates with reporting on the ground from some of the biggest battlegrounds:

In Pennsylvania:

People wait in line to vote before the start of polling on Election Day at the Museum of the American Revolution in Philadelphia.

People wait in line to vote before the start of polling on Election Day at the Museum of the American Revolution in Philadelphia, Pa. on Nov. 8, 2022. | Francis Chung/E&E News/POLITICO

— Philly Inquirer: “Vote count in Philadelphia will take longer due to last-minute change; 3,500 flawed ballots can be fixed at City Hall today”

— Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: “Pennsylvania voters head to the polls in critical midterm election”

In Wisconsin:

— Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: “Election observers plentiful at Central Count”

In Georgia:

— Atlanta Journal-Constitution: “Many Georgia voters waited till Election Day. Voting went fast”

— Washington Examiner’s @DavidMDrucker : “A note on #GASEN after trailing @ReverendWarnock & @HerschelWalker past few days: [Warnock] was campaigning like the challenger — multiple events daily, press gaggles, etc. [Walker] was acting like the incumbent - one event daily, shielded from the press (incl photogs.)”

In Nevada:

People wait in line to vote at a polling place Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022, in Las Vegas.

People wait in line to vote in Las Vegas, on Tuesday, Nov. 8. | John Locher/AP Photo

— The Nevada Independent: “Will weather dampen turnout? How soon will we know results?” … Jon Ralston on what to watch for tonight

In Arizona:

— The Arizona Republic: “Maricopa County experiencing issues at 20% of voting locations”

In Ohio:

— Cleveland.com: “Brisk voting starts Election Day in Northeast Ohio, as residents cast ballots amid fast-moving lines”

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VOTING IN AMERICA

LEARNING FROM THE PAST — “Election officials look to harden tabulation centers against 2020-type chaos,” by Zach Montellaro: “Part of the new emphasis on security, officials say, is just being aware of the possibility that tabulation centers could be the site of demonstrations or more insidious disruptions this go around, which largely caught officials flat-footed in 2020.”

DeSANTIS, DOJ FACE OFF — “DeSantis official says Justice Dept. can’t send monitors to 3 Florida counties,” by WaPo’s Tim Craig and Perry Stein: “Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties were all slated to receive federal monitors from the Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division. But BRAD McVAY, the chief counsel for the Florida Department of State, said in a letter issued late Monday that those monitors would not be allowed inside polling places under Florida law. McVay said the Florida Secretary of State’s office — which Republican Gov. RON DeSANTIS oversees — would instead send its own monitors to those three counties, which are among the most Democratic-leaning counties in Florida.”

ALARM STILL RINGING — “Election workers brace for a torrent of threats: ‘I KNOW WHERE YOU SLEEP,’” by WaPo’s Cat Zakrzewski: “Election officials who’ve been targeted online and law enforcement officials are bracing for another wave of threats on Election Day and its aftermath, when new claims of election fraud are expected to lead to more violent rhetoric online.”

BALLOT BARRIERS — “New Voting Laws Add Difficulties for People With Disabilities,” by NYT’s Neelam Bohra: “None of the new laws single out those with disabilities, but advocates say they have left many people who would otherwise vote by mail with burdensome options: face the greater risk that their mail-in ballot could be thrown out — as Texas did at a higher-than-usual rate during the March primary — or go to the polls in person, which involves its own set of inconveniences or, worse, physical barriers, and often deprives people with disabilities of a sense of privacy and independence that other voters can take for granted.”

ON THE WORLD STAGE

ALL EYES ON U.S. — “The World’s Democracies Ask: Why Can’t America Fix Itself?” by NYT’s Damien Cave: “For most of the world, the U.S. midterms are little more than a blip — but they are another data point on what some see as a trend line of trouble. Especially in countries that have found ways to strengthen their democratic processes, interviews with scholars, officials and voters revealed alarm that the United States seemed to be doing the opposite and sliding away from its core ideals.

“Several critics of America’s direction cited the Jan. 6 riots , a violent rejection of democracy’s insistence on the peaceful transfer of power. Others expressed concern about states’ erecting barriers to voting after the record turnout that resulted from widespread early and absentee voting during the pandemic. A few said they worried that the Supreme Court was falling prey to party politics, like judiciaries in nations struggling to establish independent courts.”

MIXING UP THE MARKETS — “World markets mixed ahead of US elections, inflation data,” by AP’s Elaine Kurtenbach

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AMERICA AND THE WORLD

CLIMATE CRISIS IN FOCUS — “The World Is Falling Short of Its Climate Goals. Four Big Emitters Show Why,” by NYT’s Max Bearak and Nadja Popovich: “None of the world’s biggest emitters — China, the United States, the European Union and India — have reduced their emissions enough to meet the Paris Agreement goals. Together, the four countries account for more than half of historical emissions of planet-warming gases, which include carbon dioxide and methane. The United States is the largest historical emitter, and China is the largest current emitter. Their policies have an outsize impact on the future of Earth’s climate.”

FOR YOUR RADAR — “U.S., Taiwan Kick Off Talks to Deepen Trade, Economic Ties,” by WSJ’s Yuka Hayashi

YELLEN ABROAD — “Treasury Chief Janet Yellen Heads to India as U.S. Seeks to Deepen Ties,” by WSJ’s Andrew Duehren

WAR IN UKRAINE

THE VIEW FROM KYIV — “Zelenskyy: Talks with Russia possible on Ukraine’s terms,” by AP’s Andrew Meldrum and Yuras Karmanau

PLAYBOOKERS

TRANSITIONS — Roya Rahmani and Julián Ventura are joining Albright Stonebridge Group as senior advisers. Rahmani is vice chair for public policy at Delphos and distinguished fellow at the Georgetown Institute for Women Peace and Security and the former Afghan ambassador to the U.S. Ventura is the former Mexican deputy secretary of foreign affairs.

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API's 10-Point Plan can leverage American energy production and help address the fundamental economic and security challenge we face during the current energy crisis.

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