|
From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Matt Berg | |  For weeks, Israel and Hamas have been trying to agree to a hostage deal that pauses fighting before Israel invades Rafah, a city where more than a million Palestinian civilians are sheltering. | Fatima Shbair/AP | With help from Joseph Gedeon, Joe Gould, Lara Seligman and Connor O’Brien Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — Several relatives of hostages being held by Hamas have floated a pared-down deal to bring their relatives home with U.S. and Israeli officials, who the families say seemed receptive to the idea. For weeks, Israel and Hamas have been trying to agree to a hostage deal that pauses fighting before Israel invades Rafah, a city where more than a million Palestinian civilians are sheltering. Israeli officials have said an operation could begin by March 10, and the Biden administration has warned that it would be a “disaster” if there’s no plan to protect civilians. The deal proposed by hostage families is relatively simple:
- It would strip away talks about overarching topics such as an immediate cease-fire, broader Israeli-Gaza relations and a post-war plan for Gaza.
- Hamas would release all remaining hostages in exchange for an agreed upon number of Palestinian prisoners being held by Israel.
The families said they hoped that Israel would respond to this sort of deal by choosing not to begin military operations in the city of Rafah — given that Hamas leaders would leave the territory, but that it would not be dependent on that.
What makes this idea different from others previously reported is that it strips away all “geopolitical” aspects of an agreement — mentioned in the first bullet point above — and focuses only on saving the hostages’ lives, three relatives of Israeli hostages told us. The exile could potentially create conditions for a cease-fire, they said. In talks with U.S. and Israeli officials since the beginning of the year, the hostage families and their representatives raised the proposal as a “humanitarian exchange.” At least one U.S. official suggested that it’s a reasonable plan, and Israeli officials seemed receptive to the idea. It’s unclear whether this specific deal has been floated during the actual negotiations. The National Security Council didn’t respond to a specific request about that, and the State Department declined to comment. The families’ proposed deal might not sound so favorable to Hamas, which has demanded a permanent cease-fire and wants thousands of hostages released, conditions that Israel has been reluctant to agree to. “The negotiations for a hostage deal do not include discussions of a permanent ceasefire. Rather, Israel is discussing a temporary pause for the release of hostages,” an Israeli official, granted anonymity to discuss negotiations, told NatSec Daily. “Hamas is not party to discussions about the ‘day after’ in Gaza because Hamas will not be part of the ‘day after.’” But, the families argue, both sides could be satisfied to some extent by their proposal. Hamas would be able to escape with its leaders alive — namely YAHYA SINWAR, who may be struggling with pneumonia — and point to the devastation caused by Israel in the Gaza Strip, having killed nearly 30,000 Palestinians in five months. Many experts, however, believe it’s unlikely Sinwar would agree to leave. Israel, meanwhile, could boast that it saved hostages' lives and drove key Hamas leaders out of the territory without invading Rafah, where it believes some of them are hiding. Israel wouldn’t have “destroyed” the militant group as it hoped to, but the group’s influence in the territory would be greatly diminished. Today, BRETT McGURK, the National Security Council’s top Middle East official, met with Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU for an hour before meeting with American hostage family members, a senior administration official told NatSec Daily. U.S. support for such a deal would be crucial, said one of the relatives, who like others was granted anonymity to protect his relative. “It needs to be pushed by the U.S. because it dictates a lot of the things at the end of the day in the diplomatic world, especially in relation to Qatar,” which has been a key mediator in the hostage negotiations, the person said. In conversations with senior Israeli leaders, the hostage family members have received promising feedback about the idea, they said. Earlier this month, a senior adviser to Netanyahu told NBC News that they’d allow Sinwar to escape “as long as all of the hostages are released.” But it’s hard to imagine that Netanyahu would allow Hamas leaders to leave without continuing to target them in other countries, AARON DAVID MILLER, a former Middle East peace negotiator, told NatSec Daily, adding that such a simple deal is unlikely. “I don’t think there’s a stripped down, streamlined, quick fix for this,” he said. With the Rafah invasion looming, the relatives believe striking a deal now may be the last chance to see their loved ones again: “I'm terrified of even the mention of it,” another family member said. “It could put my family at risk and the rest of the hostages, 1,000 percent.”
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: F-35: Advancing 21st Century Security
The F-35 is vital to 21st Century Security, connecting assets across domains with advanced capabilities and networking to ensure those we serve stay ahead of ready. Learn More. | | | | | RAFAH HIT: While Rafah hasn’t been invaded yet, Israeli bombs flattened a mosque and destroyed homes in the past day as local health officials said nearly 100 people were killed, Reuters’ IBRAHEEM ABU MUSTAFA, NIDAL AL-MUGHRABI and DAN WILLIAMS report. Hamas chief ISMAIL HANIYEH is in Cairo for cease-fire negotiations, his first publicly announced visit since December, per Reuters. Israel and Hamas have each accused each other of making unreasonable demands during the talks, but his visit is a sign that negotiations are at least ongoing. McGurk was in Cairo on Wednesday, where he met with Egypt’s Intelligence Chief Abbas Kamil for more than two hours, the administration official told us. Today, in addition to McGurk’s meeting with Netanyahu, he saw Defense Minister YOAV GALLANT, head of Mossad DAVID BARNEA, Shin Bet chief RONEN BAR, members of War Cabinet BENNY GANTZ and GADI EISENKOT. Scroll down to On The Hill for more on the Rafah situation. BIGGER RUSSIAN BITE: Russian troops plan on pushing much further into Ukraine to take the southern Ukrainian city of Odesa before possibly moving onto Kyiv, a top ally of Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN said today. "Where should we stop? I don't know," former President DMITRY MEDVEDEV, who’s now deputy chair of Russia's Security Council, told Russian media, per Reuters. "Will it be Kyiv? Yes, it probably should be Kyiv. If not now, then after some time, maybe in some other phase of the development of this conflict." His remarks follow a successful week for Russia’s military, in which it took the city of Avdiivka and launched several attacks against the village of Robotyne in southern Ukraine. As U.S. funding for Ukraine stalls in Congress, European Union top diplomat JOSEP BORRELL told ministers that Ukraine needs more ammunition and EU countries should do whatever it takes to provide it. “Ukrainian soldiers are hampered in their fight against the aggressor – because they lack ammunition,” Borrell wrote in a letter, seen by our own JACOPO BARIGAZZI, to EU foreign and defense ministers on Wednesday. PANDA DIPLOMACY: China is sending two new giant pandas to the San Diego Zoo, returning to the amicable relationship of panda diplomacy after previously recalling the bears amid increased tensions with the United States, our own CHRISTINE ZHU reports. A male and a female panda are expected to arrive as early as the end of summer as long as all logistical arrangements go through, San Diego Zoo officials told The Associated Press’ JULIE WATSON. This marks about five years since the zoo returned its last pandas to China. ABOUT THOSE SANCTIONS: The sanctions against Russia that the White House will unveil on Friday have been in the works long before Russian opposition leader ALEXEI NAVALNY died, our own JONATHAN LEMIRE, Alex and ELI STOKOLS reported Wednesday evening. The administration is considering three main options, two economic and one military: The U.S. could add more sanctions on Russia as well as shut down the ways Moscow evades current penalties — for example, by stopping sensitive technologies from powering key parts of Russian industry. The other idea is to pump Ukraine full of more advanced weaponry, turning Kyiv’s forces into a more powerful entity that Russia would struggle to defeat. National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY also told reporters today that the U.S. will introduce sanctions on Iran in the coming days for its part in helping Russia secure weapons for its war in Ukraine. Read: Biden meets with Navalny’s widow and daughter by our own ELI STOKOLS IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | NIKKI’S SC PLAY: GOP president candidate NIKKI HALEY has found her closing message in South Carolina: Russia, Russia, Russia, our own LISA KASHINSKY reports. In interviews, on social media and on the stump, she has repeatedly seized on the death of Navalny to launch a fusillade against former President DONALD TRUMP. It’s a strategy Haley’s deploying — playing to her strength as the former U.N. ambassador — as she’s poised to get blown out in her home state’s primary on Saturday. “Whether that’s an issue that resonates with voters, and voters in a Republican primary in South Carolina, is an open question,” said ROB GODFREY, a former comms director for Haley who is unaffiliated in the primary. “But it’s nevertheless an important one. And of course, this is not just a campaign in South Carolina.”
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | | ‘TREASURE TROVE’: After our own JOHN SAKELLARIADIS reported Wednesday (for Pros!) that leaked documents show how China relies on private contractors to spy on foreign governments, some others are highlighting more of the details. Some hackers claimed to be capable of targeting people who use Microsoft, Apple and Google products, The Washington Post reports. The cache further details contracts to extract foreign data over the course of eight years, and plans to target at least 20 countries. In southwest China, a local government paid $15,000 to gain access to a private website of traffic police in Vietnam, The New York Times reports. Software to field disinfo campaigns on X and hack accounts costs $100,000, and Chinese customers could cough up $278,000 to retrieve personal info behind social media accounts. Researchers say the docs — posted Friday on Github — appear to be legitimate It’s a rare window into the daily operations of a Chinese hacking firm that ekes out revenue by abetting Beijing’s intelligence priorities. As one cybersecurity expert told John, the documents represent “a treasure trove of information from a Chinese offensive security contractor.”
| | | READY FOR RUTTE: The U.K. is ready to back MARK RUTTE as the next leader of NATO, joining the U.S. with its endorsement, a British official said today, our own STUART LAU reports. "Rutte is well-respected across the alliance, has serious defense and security credentials, and will ensure that the alliance remains strong and ready to defend and deter," a British official told journalists. The endorsement adds further pressure on some countries to drop their hesitation over Rutte, criticized for failing to bring Dutch defense spending up to the 2 percent of GDP target pledged by all NATO allies. Still, Rutte is the clear favorite among big allies. German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ also threw his weight behind Rutte's bid today, with his spokesperson saying that the outgoing Dutch PM is an "outstanding candidate.” And a senior French official told Stuart that President EMMANUEL MACRON had been an early supporter of putting Rutte in the role. In a twist this afternoon, however, Romania notified allies that President KLAUS IOHANNIS was considering challenging Rutte for the NATO top job, Stuart reports. ARIZONA CHAT: Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA (I-Ariz.) and Gen. RANDY GEORGE, chief of staff of the Army, met at Fort Huachuca, Arizona — the Army’s Intelligence Center of Excellence and training ground on Wednesday, our own LARA SELIGMAN writes in. They met with trainers, developers and leaders who are testing and training the force with the newest intelligence and electronic warfare capabilities: “This vast swath of desert and air space restricted for our use allows us to test and train on capabilities that are hard to test anywhere else,” said Col. DAVE BUTLER, a spokesperson for George. Read: Denmark says Ukraine should get first F-16s ‘this summer’ by our own JOSHUA POSANER
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, the newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world, including WEF in Davos, Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to UNGA in NYC and many more. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | HUNGARY, TURKEY TALKS: Sens. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) and CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) told reporters that they’re optimistic ties with Turkey are on the upswing after meeting this week with leader RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN writes in. Shaheen, who said their delegation was the first group of lawmakers to meet with Erdoğan in several years, said she "felt very strongly that this was a much more positive conversation than many that I've had in the last few years with representatives from Turkey." The U.S.-Turkey relationship has been a fractious one in recent years as Ankara was booted from the F-35 fighter program after it acquired the S-400 air defense system from Russia, and complicated further by slow-walking Sweden's bid to join NATO. The Biden administration approved a sale of F-16 jets last month after Turkey approved Sweden's bid. "I know we still have enormous frictions with Turkey. It's a complicated security relationship, but you could feel the momentum behind our partnership on the ground,” Murphy said. The pair were part of a bipartisan delegation that visited Turkey, Hungary and Moldova after attending the Munich Security Conference. But Shaheen and Murphy also lamented that Hungarian Prime Minister VIKTOR ORBÁN and officials from his government refused to meet with the delegation. Hungary is the last holdout in Sweden's NATO bid, though a vote to ratify its membership is planned in the coming days. "None of us had ever been to a country that is an ally where the leadership in that country refused to meet with representatives from the United States Congress,” Shaheen said. RAFAH PLAN WORRIES: It’s unclear whether Netanyahu would have enough of an evacuation plan for civilians in Rafah to satisfy the White House, Rep. ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.) said after meeting with the prime minister. Netanyahu "certainly said that there was going to be no campaign in Rafah before they gave the civilians a chance to get out,” said Smith, the House Armed Services Committee’s top Democrat, on MSNBC today. “What his definition of that is versus what the international community would like to see, you know, we'll have to find out.”
| | | BIDEN THE ‘HOLLYWOOD COWBOY’: The Kremlin said that Biden called Putin a “crazy SOB” in an attempt to act like a “Hollywood cowboy,” our own CLAUDIA CHIAPPA reports. Biden put Putin on blast during a fundraiser Wednesday night, saying the U.S. is always forced to worry about nuclear conflict, despite climate change being “the existential threat to humanity.” But it doesn’t faze Putin, Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV said today, calling the statements “boorish.” “It is clear that Mr. Biden demonstrates behavior in the style of a Hollywood cowboy for the sake of domestic political interests,” Peskov added, claiming that Putin never makes insulting statements toward Biden. Biden also made fun of Trump for comparing himself to Navalny, our own SAMANTHA LATSON reported. NAVALNY’S BURIAL: Navalny’s mother said she’s resisting calls from Russia to agree to a secret burial for her son following his death while imprisoned in Siberia last week, The Associated Press reports. “They are blackmailing me, they are setting conditions where, when and how my son should be buried,” she said. “They want … to do it secretly without a mourning ceremony.” LOOKING INTO AMLO: U.S. officials spent years looking into allegations of whether allies of Mexican President ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR took millions of dollars from drug cartels after he took office, The New York Times’ ALAN FEUER and NATALIE KITROEFF report. The inquiry found potential links between the cartels and Mexican officials and advisers close to the president, but a formal U.S. investigation was never launched and the inquiry was shelved because “the U.S. government had little appetite to pursue allegations against the leader of one of America’s top allies,” the Times reports.
| | | |   | | | | | — CONNOR PFEIFFER is director of congressional relations at Foundation for Defense of Democracies Action. He was previously executive director of the Forum for American Leadership, where he’ll remain a senior advisor.
| | — ERIC EDELMAN and DAVID KRAMER, POLITICO: 4 myths about Ukraine that might sound right but are actually wrong — SAM BRESNICK, NGOR LUONG and KATHLEEN CURLEE, Center for Security and Emerging Technology: Which ties will bind? Big tech, lessons from Ukraine, and implications for Taiwan — STEVE HENDRIX and SHIRA RUBIN, The Washington Post: The American citizens fighting and dying for Israel in the Gaza war
| | — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: Delivering for the warfighter: the importance of executing space acquisition programs — Brookings Institution, 10 a.m.: Does the West's Ukraine policy need a reality check? — Middle East Institute, 10 a.m.: Lebanon-Israel conflict in focus — Atlantic Council, 11 a.m.: Two years on: how Europe and Ukraine are working toward victory — Palestine Center and Just World Educational, 12 p.m.: Gaza at the hinge of history: The global and regional dynamics of the Gaza war Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who has never once been reasonable in her life. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is the voice of reason.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: F-35: Delivering what’s next to ensure those we serve stay ahead of ready.
At Lockheed Martin, our mission is to deliver seamless and secure integrated deterrence with advanced systems that serve as intelligent nodes in the networked battlespace. Learn More. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
