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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | |  Biden administration officials, mostly in private but sometimes in public, say American influence over Israel right now has its limits. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images | With help from Nahal Toosi and Joe Gould Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt Most criticism of President JOE BIDEN’s Israel policy has come from progressives. But lately the frustration emanates from a place closer to home for the president: mainstream commentators. A new Washington Post op-ed by FAREED ZAKARIA minces no words in the headline: “On Gaza, Biden increasingly looks ineffective and weak.” Zakaria, whose CNN show Biden watches most Sundays, wrote that the president’s strategy toward Israel “has failed almost completely” and “that American policy on the Gaza war now appears hapless, ineffective and immoral.” Watching the administration declare concern for civilian casualties while also weighing new arms shipments, the analyst continued, is “grotesque.” And Zakaria isn’t the only typically Biden-friendly pundit speaking out. After the death of dozens of Palestinians seeking aid in Gaza, Financial Times columnist EDWARD LUCE posted to X “the Biden administration's silence & inaction makes it complicit in everything Israel is doing. … If you only care about war crimes when they are committed by your enemies, then you don't care about war crimes.” MSNBC’s CHRIS HAYES said on Threads it was “depravity and madness” not to allow a significant boost in assistance, “which can’t happen without some kind of truce.” All three add to a small but growing chorus of center-left and center-right voices calling on Biden to change approach. Biden administration officials, mostly in private but sometimes in public, say American influence over Israel right now has its limits. Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel that killed 1,200 people in one day has the country behind rooting out the militant group from Gaza. Plus, Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU has a far-right, anti-Palestinian government that he needs to keep happy to remain in power. To maintain influence, it’s better not to break with Netanyahu, U.S. officials say. Israel’s military campaign would be more indiscriminate and less humanitarian aid would get into Gaza without American input. That’s not how others see it. “I think it is clear that President Biden overestimated his ability to influence Israel's military operations because he failed to comprehend that the Israelis framed the struggle as an existential one,” said STEVEN COOK, a senior fellow for Middle East issues at the Council on Foreign Relations. “It is mystifying that he and his advisers did not see this. Now he is stuck between wanting to support Israel and the awful situation in Gaza.” The public also doesn’t fully buy the administration’s approach. A new Harvard-Harris poll shows only 38 percent of Americans either strongly or somewhat approve of Biden’s handling of the war, down from 44 percent in October. (the White House would counter that Biden has received a boost in support from Jewish Americans and point to surveys suggesting Israel still receives broad support from American voters.) NatSec Daily asked multiple administration officials if they think Zakaria et al.’s commentary will change anything. The short answer was “no,” but the longer answer was that it depends on whether the criticism from people whose worldview is closer to Biden’s can be sustained. The U.S. is looking to broker a hostage deal by Ramadan, roughly March 10 or 11, that could see the fighting pause for weeks. Some administration officials and their supporters hope that if that happens, arguments against Team Biden’s strategy might look a lot different. “It is clear the U.S. main play is a six-week pause based on releasing some 40 hostages which could be extended after that period,” said DAVID MAKOVSKY, an expert on U.S.-Israel relations at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “This is the U.S. ‘off ramp’ from the war amid hope it can pivot to a wider regional agenda.”
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Lockheed Martin, guided by our 21st Century Security vision, is driving innovation to connect data points across domains to elevate the capabilities of crucial platforms, empowering customers to stay ahead of evolving threats. Learn More. | | | | | US TO AIRDROP AID: The U.S. military will be conducting airdrops of humanitarian aid into Gaza in the coming days amid tense negotiations for a pause in the fighting between Israel and Hamas, Biden announced Friday. As Alex, LARA SELIGMAN and ELI STOKOLS report, the mission is designed to increase the flow of humanitarian assistance into Gaza as Palestinians struggle to get food, water, medicine and other aid. A senior administration official told POLITICO that discussions about the need for airdrops intensified over the past couple of weeks as the humanitarian situation worsened. But Thursday’s events, in which dozens of Palestinians were killed while scrambling for aid in Gaza, prompted Friday’s announcement, the official said. “The final impetus was yesterday. It was very clear we need to be doing more than convoys.” Gazan health officials say that Israeli troops fired into the crowd, killing more than 100 people and injuring some 700 more, The New York Times’ VICTORIA KIM and RAJA ABDULRAHIM report. Israel’s military said it killed only 10 of those people while others were killed in a stampede, The Times of Israel’s EMANUEL FABIAN reported. Neither account could be independently verified by POLITICO. "We've asked the government of Israel to investigate, and it's our assessment that they're taking this seriously and they are looking into what occurred,” National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters Friday. The Biden administration has called for an investigation into the matter, while European officials today expressed their dismay, our own CLAUDIA CHIAPPA reports. The incident has the potential to set back an imminent deal between Israel and Hamas to pause fighting and release hostages. (The latest: Israeli negotiators told Qatar and Egypt that talks won’t progress until Hamas provides a list of hostages who are alive and revises its number of prisoners it wants in exchange, Axios’ BARAK RAVID reports.) That’s an issue for the White House ahead of Biden’s State of the Union speech next week, as our own JONATHAN LEMIRE and Alex wrote Thursday night: “White House aides are still drafting the address and weighing how to discuss the situation in Gaza. The speechwriters have, to date, been unable to work with specifics because the situation is so volatile.” PUTIN’S TERMS FOR PEACE: Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN has hinted in recent weeks that he’d be open to a deal to end the war as Ukraine struggles on the battlefield — but a draft of his plan would be extremely unlikely to appeal to those in Kyiv. As The Wall Street Journal’s MAX COLCHESTER, THOMAS GROVE and JAMES MARSON report, a draft peace treaty drawn up between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators six weeks after the war started in February 2022 has remained largely unchanged. The crux of the plan: Turn Ukraine into a “permanently neutral state that doesn’t participate in military blocs” that can’t rebuild its military with Western support and would leave Crimea in Russia’s control. That deal wasn’t agreed upon at the time, and Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY’s rhetoric since has solidified Kyiv’s stance: It wants to join NATO and retake land that was seized by Russia, full stop. SUDAN WAR CRIMES? United Nations experts accused Sudan’s paramilitary forces of carrying out ethnic killings and rapes while taking over much of the country’s Darfur region, possibly amounting to war crimes and crimes against humanity. A report sent to the U.N. Security Council on Thursday, obtained by The Associated Press’ EDITH LEDERER, details the horrific allegations against the Rapid Support Forces, the group that has been fighting Sudan’s army in a brutal civil war since April. In one city alone, for instance, the RSF killed between 10,000 and 15,000 people. It was also reported last week that the group kidnapped civilians for ransom and pushed them into forced servitude. NAVALNY’S FUNERAL: Huge crowds of Russians gathered today on a gray and freezing morning in Moscow for the funeral of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, our own EVA HARTOG and DENIS LEVEN report. Among those in attendance were BORIS NADEZHDIN, the anti-war candidate who was disqualified from running against Putin in Russia’s presidential election this month, and YEVGENY ROIZMAN, a prominent Putin critic. Several Western ambassadors were also spotted in live video footage, including the U.S., French and German envoys. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring JAY SHAMBAUGH, the Treasury Department’s under secretary for international affairs. When he’s not talking with allies about money or sanctions, you can find Shambaugh kicking back with any good glass of red wine. He became a vino fan after spending five years in grad school in northern California, where he said touring wineries was “a very fun and, at the time, cheap way to spend a weekend.” Though Shambaugh doesn’t tour wineries much anymore, he appreciates some red wine along with steak he prepared in his backyard alongside friends and family. “The wine encourages us to linger and enjoy spending time together,” he said. Cheers, Jay! IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | | | HALEY HITS TRUMP ON BORDER, UKRAINE: NIKKI HALEY blasted former President DONALD TRUMP for scuttling a bipartisan border deal and refusing to support Ukraine. “Congress should have gotten in a room and strengthened the bill and come out and done something, but Trump told them not to do anything until after the general election because it would hurt him,” Haley said at a Thursday night rally in Virginia. “We can’t wait one more day.” It was Haley’s remarks on Ukraine, though, that seemed to animate the crowd that’s still behind her longshot bid to be the Republican nominee. “I think she is clear-headed about the dangers of Russian President Putin and why we need to acknowledge that and stand up to it — and how our interactions there affect possible dealings with China and Taiwan,” MARK CREAN, a Henrico, Virginia, resident, told ABC 8 News. Haley continues to hit Trump from a more hawkish viewpoint on foreign policy, but so far that hasn’t helped her turn the tables on the former president, who is running away with the nomination despite his legal troubles.
| | SCHOLZ’S TIKTOK DANCE: German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ wants his government to open a TikTok account to combat a far-right political group’s influence on the platform — despite the app’s close ties with China, Reuters’ ANDREAS RINKE and SARAH MARSH report. Political parties including the right-wing Alternative for Germany have been using the app to connect with younger voters. The party has surged in the polls to second place over the past year ahead of the country’s elections this year, and Scholz told reporters that creating a TikTok account soon is the right move. While members of Germany’s government can’t even access the app on their phones, TikTok “is a platform that is especially intensely used by young people — and we have to recognise this despite all justified criticisms of the platform," a spokesperson for Scholz told Reuters. It’s an ethical conundrum for Western countries, which have accused TikTok of spreading disinformation and collecting user data for China’s interests, but also see the platform as a necessary evil to gain support from new voters. The Biden administration launched its own only a few weeks ago.
| | | |   | | | | | PRAGUE IS PRODDING: The Czech government’s plans for European Union countries to pay for hundreds of thousands of artillery shells for Ukraine is gaining steam and collecting checks, our own PAUL McLEARY scoops (for Pros!). “Over 50 percent or close to two-thirds of the money is already allocated” to purchase ammunition for Ukraine, Lt. Gen. KAREL ŘEHKA, the chief of the Czech Republic’s general staff, told Paul. Prague found 800,000 available shells outside the EU, but buying them could cost billions of dollars. Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials say they need 2.5 million artillery rounds this year, but they don’t have that much or commitments to get that amount. ICYMI — Finland: Ukraine is free to bomb Russia with our weapons by our own PIERRE EMMANUEL NGENDAKUMANA
| | ‘CONTEMPT’ BEGETS CONTEMPT: The House Foreign Affairs Committee’s top Democrat, GREGORY MEEKS, dismissed next week’s contempt proceedings against Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN in a single word: “Politics.” Panel Chair MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) plans to hold a markup March 7 to hold Blinken in contempt of Congress. McCaul and other Republicans allege the department is not cooperating with a July subpoena seeking documents related to the August 2021 U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. The documents in question are related to the administration’s after-action review, which faulted the Trump and Biden administrations for the chaos surrounding the withdrawal. McCaul’s team has asked for all notes connected to the review and argues they haven’t gotten everything. Meeks likened the effort to the Judiciary Committee’s impeachment proceedings against Biden. “The State Department has provided innumerable witnesses and time and transcripts and nothing has come out of it,” Meeks said in an interview. “It just seems to be part and parcel of the political strategy of the Republican leadership, which just goes nowhere.” This effort is going somewhere soon. By mid-month, McCaul is expected to release transcripts and other documents from the probe he’s been conducting for months. Meeks said those documents will include various views of how the withdrawal might have been conducted differently, but “there's no smoking gun there at all.” Meeks echoed other defenders of the Biden administration who have argued that an examination of the war in Afghanistan should encompass all 20 years, multiple different administrations and the mistakes they made too. McCaul, in a statement, fired back at a post from Meeks earlier in the week that called the contempt threat a “political stunt.” “I am certain that the families of the American servicemembers who died at Abbey Gate would not consider accountability for their children’s deaths to be a stunt,” McCaul said. “I have given the department more than a year to produce these documents. It’s ridiculous they still haven’t produced them.”
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, the newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world, including WEF in Davos, Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to UNGA in NYC and many more. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | DON’T MIND PUTIN: A top NATO official said Putin's latest nuclear threat is currently just "psychological intimidation,” our own STUART LAU reports. Putin issued the warning Thursday as French President Macron stood by his message that the West could not rule out sending troops to help Ukraine fend off Putin's full-scale invasion. "This really threatens a conflict with nuclear weapons," Putin said. NATO Deputy Secretary-General MIRCEA GEOANĂ characterized Putin's nuclear threats as "a discourse that delves into the logic of psychological intimidation rather than real intentions," in an interview with Spanish newspaper El País published today. "We do not see any imminent threat of Russia using these weapons. But these statements are in themselves very dangerous, because they erode trust. Russia knows the consequences of taking such a step." YELLEN AT ISRAEL: Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN criticized Israel for withholding work permits and preventing Palestinians’ travel from the West Bank, raising concerns about the measures causing the war to broaden. "We don’t want to see an extension of conflict into other parts,” Yellen told Reuters’ ANDREA SHALAL. "Israel is a friend and we talk to them regularly. If we see something that worries us, we tell our partners what we think of that." The restrictions put in place by Israel have hurt the Palestinian economy, she said, since construction projects have been halted due to worker shortages: “It’s not good for Israel’s economy, or the West Bank’s economy," she said. "I don’t think any of this is in Israel’s interest."
| | | | — JAMES SUSSMAN has been promoted to communications officer at the International Rescue Committee. He was a media and communications manager at IRC before assuming his current role in an acting capacity for three months.
| | — JAMIE DETTMER, POLITICO: Ukraine’s in a dire position. Macron’s gaffe made things worse. — DAN BAER and SOPHIA BESCH, Foreign Policy: Making sense of Macron’s hint at troops in Ukraine — EHUD BARAK, Foreign Affairs: Israel must decide where it’s going—and who should lead it there
| | — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: Two years after the return of war on european soil: charting the path for EU defense with Ambassador CHARLES FRIES, deputy secretary general for peace, security and defense — Atlantic Council, 10:30 a.m.: Women, peace and security in a shifting security landscape — New America, noon: Book discussion "American Mother” — Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 12:30 p.m.: Trump-proofing europe? an autonomous European security and defense capability at last? — Institute of World Politics, 3 p.m.: Addressing the evolving security challenges in Korea — Palestine Center, 6 p.m.: Total war between river and sea: the dynamics of the Gaza war in the West Bank and within the green line — Politics and Prose Bookstore, 7 p.m.: Book discussion on "The Achilles Trap: Saddam Hussein, the CIA, and the Origins of America's Invasion of Iraq” Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, about whom we’ll never write anything positive. We also thank our producer, Raymond Rapada, who gets 100 percent, five out of five stars from us.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Make Any Point your Center of Command
Lockheed Martin, guided by our 21st Century Security vision, is driving innovation to connect data points across domains to elevate the capabilities of crucial platforms, empowering customers to stay ahead of evolving threats. Learn More. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
