The new GOP leadership litmus tests

By Rachael Bade and Garrett Ross

Kevin McCarthy's leadership of House Republicans is facing yet another new test. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images

ANOTHER McCARTHY HEADACHE — Man, KEVIN McCARTHY is having a hell of a week. This morning, Trump adviser JASON MILLER went on STEVE BANNON’s podcast and insisted that if the California Republican wants to be House speaker, “he must be much more declarative that he supports President [DONALD] TRUMP in 2024.”

The cross-currents weighing on the would-be speaker are only stiffening. The public pressure to openly commit to Trump’s 2024 campaign comes as scores of his members are questioning whether the Republican Party should follow Trump over yet another electoral cliff. And, as we walked through in Playbook this morning , he’ll likely have to reconcile those demands among a majority measuring in the low single digits.

We have to say we saw this coming — particularly after Rep. ELISE STEFANIK (R-N.Y.) endorsed Trump’s expected 2024 bid last night in a statement to Breitbart. Now we’re looking at a situation where Trump is going to want all other Republicans running for leadership posts to declare their loyalty as well.

The stakes are especially high for McCarthy. He’ll need the support of nearly every Republican to win the floor vote that decides the gavel, while others running for leadership posts only need to win a majority of the GOP conference.

If he’s forced to endorse Trump to shore up his right flank, will he lose votes from more moderate Republicans who want the ex-president in the rearview mirror? And if he does, can he get the 218 votes to be speaker? Tricky, tricky …

MEANWHILE, ACROSS THE ROTUNDA — MITCH McCONNELL has survived years of clashes with Trump and firebrand conservatives, and Tuesday’s subpar election results appeared to validate his approach to the midterms.

But now a handful of senators want “serious discussions” about the direction of the Senate GOP before members pick their leaders, Burgess Everett scoops . Sens. RON JOHNSON (R-Wis.), MIKE LEE (R-Utah) and RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.) are circulating a petition calling for next week’s scheduled elections to be delayed until after the Dec. 6 Georgia runoff is settled.

“We are all disappointed that a Red Wave failed to materialize , and there are multiple reasons it did not,” the senators write, adding, “Holding leadership elections without hearing from the candidates as to how they will perform their leadership duties and before we know whether we will be in the majority or even who all our members are violates the most basic principles of a democratic process.”

MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) publicly joined ranks on Twitter this morning , saying “we need to make sure that those who want to lead us are genuinely committed to fighting for the priorities & values of the working Americans (of every background) who gave us big wins in states like Florida.”

While he enjoys a deep well of support within the Senate GOP, McConnell risks having his leadership become a litmus test for other Republican senators as the intraparty war over whether to embrace or abandon Trump proceeds apace.

ABOUT THAT INTRAPARTY WAR — “‘They completely f---ed up’: How the GOP lost its grip on the Senate majority,” by Burgess, Natalie Allison and Marianne LeVine: “The GOP can still win the majority if it knocks off Sen. CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO (D-Nev.), but it blew an opportunity to grab the Senate in November despite obvious political advantages.

“How that happened is the story of a larger, existential struggle within the GOP. Interviews with more than 20 strategists and senators from both parties highlight the reasons for Republicans’ stumbles this year: former President Donald Trump played kingmaker, and the party reasoned it could do little about it besides trying to ride historical tailwinds.

“Senate Republicans’ disinterest in further damaging their fractious relationship with the former president saddled them with losing candidates in Pennsylvania, Arizona and New Hampshire as popular governors took a pass on running. And the chip still on Scott’s shoulder from his own 2010 gubernatorial primary — where he toppled an establishment favorite — shaped the NRSC’s approach this cycle, for better or worse.”

Meanwhile, our colleagues Natalie Allison and Zach Montellaro have the report on how Republicans are going all-in holding out hope for a Senate majority miracle: “On a Republican conference call Thursday, Sen. LINDSAY GRAHAM (R-S.C.), went so far as to suggest fraud in Nevada if [Republican ADAM] LAXALT isn’t declared the winner. The midday call was hosted by [Scott], chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. … Besides having legal teams on the ground in Nevada and Arizona, there’s now little the GOP can do to salvage its shot at a majority but go all-in on Georgia.

“During the call Thursday, Graham, NEWT GINGRICH, HALEY BARBOUR and TODD RICKETTS were reported to be among those co-chairing the finance committee for [ HERSCHEL] WALKER’s campaign, which is still growing but includes seven senators and Sen.-elect MARKWAYNE MULLIN (R-Okla.), according to a document obtained by POLITICO. Sen. RAND PAUL will be heading up Walker’s libertarian outreach during the runoff. … Graham and Gingrich told those on the call that both Donald Trump and Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS are expected to provide support for the Walker campaign.”

Plus: American Bridge gave Natalie and Zach a first look of its first two ads for the runoff in support of Democratic Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK. Watch ad 1 … Ad 2

Happy Friday afternoon. Man, what a week. Let us know how you’re unwinding this weekend: rbade@politico.com and gross@politico.com .

THAT WAS FAST — Platformer’s @ZoeSchiffer : “NEW: Twitter has suspended the launch of Twitter Blue and is actively trying to stop people from subscribing ‘to help address impersonation issues,’ per an internal note.”

HOW THE MIGHTY FALL — “Crypto giant files for bankruptcy, megadonor CEO resigns,” by Sam Sutton and Declan Harty: “Beleaguered crypto exchange FTX said Friday that it filed for bankruptcy and that its CEO SAM BANKMAN-FRIED stepped down, just days after revealing a devastating financial crunch that has started to take down the broader digital currency market. FTX filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the U.S., meaning it will try to restructure its ailing business.” Read FTX’s statement … Read SBF’s Twitter apology

TALKER — Michael Schaffer’s latest Capital City column: “When Did Having a President on Your Alumni List Become Embarrassing?”

AFTERNOON READ — “They Told Him to Change His Name. Now Crowds Are Shouting It,” by Michael Kruse for POLITICO Magazine: “Aftab Pureval, the young mayor of Cincinnati, has Democrats reaching for some flattering comparisons.”

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THE WHITE HOUSE

President Joe Biden speaks at the COP27 U.N. Climate Summit in Egypt on Friday, Nov. 11. | AP

BIDEN AT COP27 — President JOE BIDEN kicked off his overseas tour this morning, speaking at the U.N. climate conference in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, where he took the opportunity to trumpet the Inflation Reduction Act’s climate initiatives and pledge that the U.S. would meet its goal to slash emissions by 2030.

Here’s some highlights:

• “A climate crisis is about human security, economic security, environmental security, national security, and the very life of the planet.”
• “Let’s build on global climate progress. The science is devastatingly clear, we need to make vital progress by the end of this decade.”
• “If we are to win this fight, we can no longer plead ignorance to the consequences of actions and repeat our mistakes.”

Of course, Biden’s climate ambitions will likely be dimmed a bit as Republicans are favored to reclaim control of the House and Democrats’ margin in the Senate is still slim.

As Biden left the stage where he delivered remarks this morning: “Asked how he plans to convince Republicans to fund his climate initiatives, President Biden replied: ‘Reality,’” per WaPo’s Matt Viser .

More on the scene from WaPo : “Meanwhile on Friday, the chief climate negotiator for the largest bloc of developing nations told The Washington Post he ‘wholeheartedly’ supports the idea of taxing fossil fuel companies to pay for ‘loss and damage’ — the irreversible harms from climate change that are already bombarding the developing world.”

— “A group of Republican lawmakers pushed back Friday against what one called ‘radical environmentalism,’ arguing that demonizing fossil fuels is not a productive way to fight climate change. ‘We need to decide as a world, do we hate greenhouse gas emissions, or do we hate fossil fuels?’ Rep. JOHN CURTIS (R-Utah) said Friday during a panel discussion at COP27 alongside other members of the Conservative Climate Caucus.”

The Biden administration, meanwhile, rolled out its latest climate-focused effort: “The Environmental Protection Agency issued a proposed regulation that agency officials said would, by 2035, lower the amount of methane emissions from oil and gas operations by 36 million tons — more than the amount of carbon dioxide emitted from all coal-fired power plants in a single year,” NYT’s Lisa Friedman reports .

CONGRESS

LET THE JOCKEYING BEGIN — Rep. TONY CÁRDENAS is launching a bid to take over the DCCC for the 2024 cycle after the ousting of current Chair SEAN PATRICK MALONEY , “pledging to grow the caucus’ ranks after its smaller-than-expected midterm losses,” Nicholas Wu reports .

“If elected, Cárdenas would face a better environment for 2024 than Democrats initially expected, but nonetheless a challenging one as they battle negative economic trends and an unpredictable presidential race likely to involve Donald Trump. A major part of the Californian’s pitch is improving Democrats’ outreach to Latino voters, amid rising fears within the party about the fastest-growing U.S. voting bloc’s shift toward the GOP.” Read Cárdenas’ letter to Dems

MORE MIDTERMS FALLOUT

RED TO BLUE — “The GOP thought it could make gains in New England. A blue wave hit instead,” by WaPo’s Joanna Slater in Boston: “Republicans lost three House races that were considered competitive in Rhode Island, Connecticut and New Hampshire, as well as a similar Senate race in New Hampshire.”

DIGITAL DASH — “Republicans’ old-school campaign,” via FWIW's Kyle Tharp: “Democratic candidates built a massive advantage in Facebook, Instagram, Google, and YouTube ad spending. In battleground Senate races, Democrats outspent Republicans $50 million to $10 million. … And Republican candidates by and large stayed off of TikTok, ceding one of the most important corners of the internet to their Democratic opponents.”

2024 WATCH

TRUMP HITS YOUNGKIN — In his latest attempt to rattle a potential 2024 presidential primary rival, DONALD TRUMP lashed out at Virginia Gov. GLENN YOUNGKIN this morning on Truth Social, using a racist remark to comment on the governor’s last name and again taking credit for Youngkin’s political success. “I Endorsed him, did a very big Trump Rally for him telephonically, got MAGA to Vote for him - or he couldn’t have come close to winning. But he knows that, and admits it. Besides, having a hard time with the Dems in Virginia - But he’ll get it done!” More from Kelly Hooper

THE SPLIT SCREEN — A pair of governors on opposite ends of the country are shadowboxing ahead of potential presidential bids down the road, and they’re offering similar rationales for why supporters should back their vision.

Here was California’s GAVIN NEWSOM on Tuesday: “We affirmed clearly with conviction that we are a true freedom state.”

Here was Florida’s RON DeSANTIS on Tuesday: “We stood as a citadel of freedom for people across this country, and indeed across the world.”

“Both messages have worked on smaller scales,” AP’s Adam Beam and Anthony Izaguirre write , “solidifying each governor’s hold on one of the nation’s most populous states and propelling them as leaders of their political parties. Now, Newsom and DeSantis appear poised to take their messages nationally — a competition that could clash in a presidential campaign.

POLICY CORNER

IMMIGRATION FILES — “DHS secretary to Biden’s top border chief: Quit or be fired,” by Daniel Lippman: “Customs and Border Protection Commissioner CHRIS MAGNUS, who has clashed with immigration officials over how to handle an influx of migrants at the southern border, has lost the confidence of his bosses and has been asked to resign or be fired, according to three current and one former Department of Homeland Security officials. Magnus was told on Wednesday by Homeland Security Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS that he should either resign or be dismissed and, so far, the CBP chief has refused to step down, according to the four people.”

THE LOAN LITIGATION — “Education Department suspends application for student debt relief after court ruling,” by Michael Stratford

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TRUMP CARDS

THE MOOD AT MAR-A-LAGO — “Tiffany Trump’s wedding assembles a family divided over its patriarch’s political future,” by CNN’s Kate Bennett: “Trump typically likes being the center of attention at his private club, which also serves as his home, but only if he’s being congratulated or in the mood for accolades. The run-up to Tiffany’s big day has been rough and, as the skies clear and her guests descend on Mar-a-Lago, sources say the former president is lying low.”

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

FOR YOUR RADAR — “U.S. bomber flight meant as a message to Iran amid threat to Saudi infrastructure,” by Lara Seligman

ALLY OUTREACH — “U.S. Seeks Closer Ties with India as Tension with China and Russia Builds,” by NYT’s Alan Rappeport and Ana Swanson in New Delhi: “The United States is placing India at the center of its ambition to detach global supply chains from the clutches of American adversaries, seeking to cement ties with one of the world’s fastest-growing economies as tensions with China remain high and as Russia’s war in Ukraine upends international commerce.”

WILD STORY — “A CIA veteran who survived a hand-to-hand battle with Al Qaeda is now helping Afghans escape the Taliban,” by NBC’s Dan De Luce, Brenda Breslauer and Yasmine Salam

SPORTS BLINK — “Politics of Israel and Iran ensnare 1st World Cup in Mideast,” by AP’s Isabel Debre in Jerusalem

PLAYBOOKERS

IN MEMORIAM — “Review-Journal Washington reporter Gary Martin dies,” by the Las Vegas Review-Journal’s Sabrina Schnur: “Gary Martin, the friendly and tenacious Washington bureau chief who covered Congress for the Review-Journal, died Thursday in Las Vegas. He was 64. Martin, whose journalism career took him from Nogales to Miami and San Antonio to the White House, was in Southern Nevada to cover this week’s elections. His body was found inside his hotel room at Circa in downtown Las Vegas around 3:30 p.m. Metropolitan Police Department Lt. Justin Byers said his death appeared to be from natural causes.”

MEDIA MOVES — Judy Woodruff announced that she will step down from the anchor desk for PBS NewsHour on Dec. 30 to work on “America at a Crossroads,” a “two year project to understand better how the American people see their country and whether today’s deep political divisions can be healed.” More from PBS NewsHour

— Jonathan Swan is joining NYT, where he will begin covering the Republican Party in Congress and later move to the politics team. He previously was a national political reporter at Axios. The NYT announcement

— Erin Banco is now a national security reporter for POLITICO. She previously was a global health correspondent.

TRANSITION — Maggie Herman is now a health insurance specialist in the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services’ Office of Legislation. She was previously a senior legislative assistant for Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.).

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