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From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. | | | | |  | | By Matt Berg, Nahal Toosi and Alexander Ward | |  A soldier stands guard at the international airport in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, on March 4, 2024. | Odelyn Joseph/AP | With help from Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt A loose alliance of violent gangs could soon seize full control of Haiti with its acting leader missing, stirring up angst in Washington as U.S. efforts to calm the situation have so far yielded minimal results. Gang violence has plagued the Caribbean nation for more than two years since the assassination of President JOVENEL MOISE. But the crisis has escalated in recent days, when armed gangs overran two of Haiti’s biggest prisons, releasing thousands of inmates, and tried to take control of the country’s main airport. The Biden administration, which has been trying to rally international support for the besieged country for many months, is becoming increasingly alarmed. If the Haitian government falls, lawmakers worry that the ripple effect could cause a major migration crisis for the region. “It’s a catastrophic situation,” Rep. YVETTE CLARKE (D-N.Y.), co-chair of the House Haiti Caucus, told NatSec Daily. “The instability of one country impacts all the countries around it.” U.S. officials are monitoring Haiti’s “rapidly deteriorating security situation with grave concern,” State Department spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER told reporters today. A U.S.-led push through the United Nations and other channels appeared to offer a breakthrough last year when Kenya agreed to lead an international police force of 1,000 officers to combat Haiti’s gang violence. But Nairobi’s high court delayed the deployment. Haiti’s de facto leader Prime Minister ARIEL HENRY went to Kenya to resolve the impasse, but his current whereabouts are now unknown. There are only about 9,000 Haitian police officers who provide security for more than 11 million people, and they’re often overwhelmed and outgunned, according to the United Nations. “Haiti's National Police may only last another week or so in fighting off the gangs,” the Wilson Center’s EDDY ACEVEDO, who has been closely following the situation, told NatSec Daily. The Biden administration has said it won’t commit troops to any multinational force for Haiti, instead offering money and logistical support. American officials have been in close contact with the Haitian government to help stabilize the situation, Miller said. “We are urgently mobilizing all support we and the international community can immediately provide Haiti, especially to the Haitian National Police, to ensure they are able to restore security for the sake of the people,” an NSC spokesperson, granted anonymity to speak candidly about U.S. policy, told NatSec Daily. It’s possible Haitians wouldn’t welcome more help from Washington. Haitian human rights advocates are leery about the possibility of U.S. intervention, still angry about the U.S. invasion and occupation of the island for nearly two decades after President JEAN VILBRUN GUILLAUME SAM was assassinated in 1915. Despite the history, the U.S. should work more with other Caribbean nations to help Haiti set up a democratic government with free and fair elections, Clarke said, adding that the U.S. also needs to do more to cut off the flow of illegal arms to Haiti. “That's becoming more and more of a challenge with … the anarchistic environment that has been created and allowed to flourish,” she said. Rep. AYANNA PRESSLEY (D-Mass.), who co-chairs the Haiti Caucus with Clarke, also told NatSec Daily the U.S. must “prioritize the establishment of a representative transitional government in Haiti, and provide urgent humanitarian relief.” Last month, a group of Democratic senators urged Henry to take concrete steps to begin rebuilding the country’s government by holding elections. But with the prime minister nowhere to be found, the country’s governance is extremely precarious. Today, the Gazette Haiti newspaper reported that GUY PHILIPPE, who led a coup in 2004 and spent time in U.S. prison on money laundering charges, would try to install himself as president and spearhead a transitional government. Gang chiefs such as JIMMY “BARBECUE” CHERIZIER also say they want to topple Henry. Amid the chaos, one thing is clear: Time is running out to help Haiti's government, which will be difficult to restore as the gangs’ power continues to grow. “Without definitive action now, it is a real tragic possibility that Haiti falls to gangs soon,” Acevedo said.
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The F-35 is vital to 21st Century Security. The most advanced, survivable, and connected fighter in the world is helping those we serve stay ahead of ready. Learn more. | | | | | TOUGH LOVE: Israeli War Cabinet member BENNY GANTZ faced harsh criticism about his government’s handling of the war in Gaza during Monday meetings at the White House, Axios’ BARAK RAVID reports. Both Vice President KAMALA HARRIS and national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN explained that the Biden administration is frustrated about the dire humanitarian situation in the enclave. “The strong messages Gantz received in private … signal the White House has lost its patience and is ratcheting up pressure on the Israeli government,” per Ravid. National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters Monday that Israel was responsible for the dearth of food, water, medicine and other assistance flowing into Gaza. “There have been some incidents where they have not been either able or willing, or maybe both, to keep the trucks going at an increased level,” he said. “Israel bears a responsibility here to do more.” But the love could’ve been tougher, NBC News reports. Harris over the weekend called for an “immediate cease-fire” that would last six weeks, encouraging Hamas to agree to a hostage deal with Israel while pushing Israel to let more aid into Gaza. Turns out even that language was watered down. “The original draft of Harris’ speech, when it was sent to the National Security Council for review, was harsher on Israel about the dire humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip and the need for more aid than were the remarks she ultimately delivered,” per NBC. “The initial draft specifically called out Israel more directly about the need to immediately allow additional aid trucks in.” Most of the administration’s anger, then, seems reserved for closed-door conversations. BACK IN FORCE: Russian air power is playing an increasingly larger role in the invasion of Ukraine, The New York Times’ CONSTANT MÉHEUT reports. “Military analysts say Russia has increasingly used warplanes near the front lines to drop powerful guided bombs on Ukrainian positions and clear a path forward for the infantry. That tactic, used most notably in Avdiivka, the strategic eastern city captured by Russian forces last month, has yielded good results,” he wrote. The Ukrainian Army last week said it had shot down seven Su-34 fighter jets, almost all in Ukraine’s east. That came after Ukrainian military officials also claimed they downed a Russian A-50 long-range radar reconnaissance aircraft. Today, Ukrainian intelligence claimed seven people were killed after a sea drone sunk a Russian patrol ship in the Black Sea. Ukraine says that ship played a part in the 2022 attack on Snake Island. SEA IF IT WORKS: The Biden administration is looking to deliver aid to Palestinians in Gaza via a maritime corridor, Alex and NAHAL TOOSI report. “We are in discussion with a number of partners about this initiative, and while it is still in the development phase, we are optimistic about its potential to supplement our air and land efforts,” State spokesperson Miller told reporters. “It’s a matter that we are exploring with commercial partners as well as other partners in the region.” The maritime option, U.S. and European officials say, is effectively what Cypriot President NIKOS CHRISTODOULIDES proposed last year. He confirmed Sunday that his country, which sits about 230 miles away from Gaza by sea, was in talks with the U.S. about setting up the route. But there’s a problem: While Gaza has a coast, there’s limited port infrastructure, making it difficult for ships to dock. The fact that the U.S. is considering a maritime option is a sign of how dire the humanitarian situation has grown for the 2.2 million Palestinians trapped there amid Israel’s military campaign to root out Hamas militants. BERLIN BLAME: When you’re traveling as a government official, keep your password covered, avoid the public Wi-Fi — and definitely don’t use the hotel phone. German Defense Minister BORIS PISTORIUS said today that the audio of German military officers discussing top secret information was intercepted by Russia only because one of them logged in through an insecure line from a hotel room in Singapore, our own JOSHUA POSANER reports. Addressing the leak in Berlin following an investigation by Germany's Military Counterintelligence Service, Pistorius insisted the incident was a one-off: "Our communication systems were not compromised," he said. ICYMI — Putin’s masterful spy op leaves Scholz in the cold by our own MATTHEW KARNITSCHNIG IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | | | WHAT GAZA MEANS FOR VOTERS: The frustration with the government that many Americans held during the Vietnam War is reminiscent of the palpable anger certain Democrats have with JOE BIDEN over his handling of the war in Gaza, per USA Today. “The generational divide is shaping not only how they see the conflict in the Middle East, but how they will vote in this year’s presidential election,” six USA Today reporters write. DYLAN YOUNG, who claims he was put on probation at Emerson College over his pro-Palestinian advocacy, voted for Biden in 2020 but won’t do so this year. “We cannot see a genocide of 30,000 people using our taxpayer dollars and pretend that it’s not an issue,” he said. Instead, the 21-year-old will vote for CORNEL WEST. RUSS GREENLEAF, 67 and a self-described “anti-Zionist Jew,” plans to vote “uncommitted” or write in “Free Palestine” when he fills out a ballot in Kentucky. The USA Today report paints a detailed picture of the Gaza problem Biden faces heading into the election. Whether a six-week cease-fire that’s been floated could shift voters’ attitudes come November is yet to be seen.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, the newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world, including WEF in Davos, Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to UNGA in NYC and many more. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | HACKING THE GENDER GAP: The National Security Council is enlisting tech heavyweights to train the next generation of cybersecurity talent in the Middle East, our friends at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!) report. Officials revealed a plan to provide 250 free cybersecurity courses and certifications to Jordanian women through a partnership with the Open Source Security Foundation and Linux Foundation. “This will equip women in Jordan with crucial skills and contribute to national security,” ANNE NEUBERGER, deputy national security adviser for cyber and emerging technology, said in a statement. The move aims to chip away at the wide gender disparity in cybersecurity, a field where women hold just 24 percent of jobs globally, according to estimates from international cyber association ISC2. Read: Treasury slaps sanctions on notorious European spyware maker by our own JOHN SAKELLARIADIS
| | EU’S MILITARY RAMP UP: The European Commission presented a far-reaching defense industrial strategy today and a $1.6 billion subsidy program in another sign that the bloc is not longer just a peace project, our own LAURA KAYALI, Joshua and JACOPO BARIGAZZI report. THIERRY BRETON, the industry commissioner, underlined during the presentation of the strategy that Europe is facing an "existential threat," while foreign policy chief JOSEP BORRELL warned: “In response to Russia's aggression against Ukraine, the EU must bolster its defense capabilities.” If member countries agree, it will mark the end of the post-Cold War peace dividend that saw military spending shrivel. The aim is to get the EU — the world's second-largest economy — to finally begin punching its weight when it comes to defense. NO SHIPMENTS PLEASE: A new poll today shows that a sizable majority of voters who backed Biden in 2020 oppose weapons shipments to Israel, the latest sign that Israel’s offensive in Gaza remains a political liability for the president’s reelection campaign, our own ERIC BAZAIL-EIMIL reports. Read: Iran has supplied Russia with ballistic missiles, UK defense chief suggests by our own ANDREW McDONALD
| | | |   | | | | | SPECIAL GUESTS: EVAN GERSHKOVICH’s parents will be Speaker MIKE JOHNSON’s guests at the State of the Union address on Thursday. “We are grateful to Speaker Johnson for inviting us to attend the State of the Union and for providing the opportunity to highlight Evan’s wrongful detention,” ELLA MILMAN and MIKHAIL GERSHKOVICH said in a statement to The Wall Street Journal, Evan’s employer. “By hosting Evan’s parents, Congress will shine a spotlight on the unjust detention of their son,” Johnson added in a statement. “The United States must always stand for freedom of the press around the world, especially in places like Russia, where it is under assault. The Administration must bring Evan home.” YULIA NAVALNAYA, the wife of the late Russian opposition leader ALEXEI NAVALNY who died last month while imprisoned in Russia, was invited to the State of the Union to be a guest of the Bidens but isn’t able to attend, a White House official told CBS News’ SARA COOK.
| | FOR THE KIDS: Kyiv’s chief prosecutor accused the United Nations of not speaking out enough regarding Russia’s kidnapping of Ukrainian children, our own GREGORIO SORGI reports. If the United Nations “is silent when Russia kidnapped up to 20,000 Ukrainian children, I don’t understand what’s going on,” ANDRIY KOSTIN said during a panel debate in Brussels today. Kyiv’s top law official contrasted the U.N.’s efforts to funnel Ukrainian grain to developing countries with what he called inaction over the kidnapping of children in Ukrainian regions under Russian occupation. He argued that the international community’s weak reaction toward the children’s deportations encouraged the Palestinian militant group Hamas to use similar tactics during its Oct. 7 attack on Israel. Kostin called the kidnapping of Israeli civilians a “repetition of what Russia did in Ukraine.” Read: Russia using Serbian agent to infiltrate EU bodies, Western intel says by our European colleagues
| | | — VICTORIA NULAND will step down in the coming weeks as undersecretary of state for political affairs. Undersecretary for Management JOHN BASS has been asked to serve in her role on an acting basis until Nuland’s replacement is confirmed. — CHRIS COOK has joined Saab as director of government affairs. He served in the Senate for the past 16 years, including working on the Senate Appropriations Committee for nearly a decade. JANA MURPHY, Saab’s SVP, is adding business development to her portfolio, which also includes communications and government affairs. — RYAN TULLY has started as VP of government relations for Stratolaunch, a hypersonic company owned by the PE firm Cerberus. He most recently ran European/Russian policy and the Strategic Forces Subcommittee of the House Armed Services Committee and is a Trump administration NSC alum.
| | — GREG WEAVER and ANDREA KENDALL-TAYLOR, POLITICO: What NATO allies must do to prepare for Russian aggression — United Nations: Mission report: official visit of the office of the SRSG-SVC to Israel and the occupied West Bank, 29 Jan. – 14 Feb. 2024 — SAMUEL CHARAP and JEREMY SHAPIRO, Foreign Affairs: How to pave the way for diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine
| | — Air and Space Forces Association, 10 a.m.: How the Department of the Air Force is reoptimizing for great power competition, and the role operational readiness will play in that effort — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 10 a.m.: Global food security — Middle East Institute, 10 a.m.: The conundrum of plentiful supply: risks and challenges to oil and gas markets in the current Middle East conflict — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3 p.m.: Book discussion on "Get Me Carlucci: A Daughter Recounts Her Father's Legacy of Service” — Institute of World Politics, 4:30 p.m.: The intelligence customer: What do we want? Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, to whom we only show the toughest love. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, whom we love dearly.
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The F-35 is the most advanced, connected fighter aircraft in the world – unmatched 5th Generation capabilities for the U.S. and allies around the globe. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |  |
